Fadnavis May Win, But Can He Last?

(Kumar Ketkar is a senior journalist, political commentator, globe trotter and author. He has covered all Indian elections since 1971 and significant international events. He is a frequent participant on TV debates.)

A rather cynical question is in circulation in Maharashtra's political circles: how long will the BJP government led by Devendra Fadanvis survive? Despite an extravagant swearing-in ceremony on the Wankhede Cricket stadium on October 31, attended and "blessed" by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, doubts about the stability of the government are being raised even before a trust vote is held on November 12. Though I think it is totally unwarranted, surprisingly, a section of the BJP leadership itself in the state is also sustaining this theory.

True, the party does not have a majority. Effectively, the party will have 121 legislators in the house of 288 (one newly-elected BJP MLA died of a heart attack). So it needs 24 legislators beyond its current strength to prove its majority and win the confidence vote. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) has 41 members in the House. This party, led by Sharad Pawer, had assured the BJP that it will support the government. So that means the BJP is home free.

There are about 14 other members, including independents, small parties and BJP's friendly partners, who will add to the BJP's numbers. And it is unlikely that the Shiv Sena will vote against the confidence motion.  In that case,  except for the Congress, with its 42 seats, there is no "official" opposition. So why is this feeling of uncertainty being expressed in certain quarters? The Congress in fact, has reconciled itself to being in the opposition and has neither the will nor the numbers to defeat the government.

The Doubting Thomases are not questioning the immediate survival of Mr Fadnavis.  They are asking whether the government will last a full term of 60 months. This is because of the unreliable nature of the NCP, the volatile character of the Shiv Sena and the intense squabbling within the state party.

The NCP, Shiv Sena and Congress have a combined number of 146. If any issue confronting the state becomes far too contentious or divisive, the BJP and its supporters will be reduced to 142 or even less. Some  friends of the BJP, like Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana have already said that if  farmers' demands are not met, they will move to the streets to fight for their rights.

All these parties, including those which are supporting the BJP, need not form an alliance-political or ideological  - to  defeat the government on the floor of the House.  Some BJP veterans remember how Sharad Pawar orchestrated the defeat of the Vajpayee government in the Lok Sabha in 1999, forcing the country into elections.  They feel that if Pawar could accomplish that at the centre, he can do that in the state also.

Further, they point out that Pawar toppled his own party's government in the state in 1978, led by Vasantdada Patil. Pawar's politics is a "no-holds-barred" game. If he realizes that he cannot save his colleagues in the party from  serious allegations of corruption, he could switch sides easily.

The new Chief Minister is seen as  by and large a clean straight-talking guy with a middle-class world view. His party colleagues are used to the politics of eloquent speech-making, raising high-octane demands, and slogans which have little relevance in actual life. For instance, the party had made an electoral promise of abolishing all tolls on the highways, making Maharashtra "tanker-free" and instituting prosecutions against NCP and Congress leaders.

But within the first week, the BJP has started backtracking. On the tolls, they say they will study details;  making the state "tanker-free" will involve, like many other projects, additional expenditure. The state has over 3 lakh crore loans / overdrafts and Fadanvis does not want to further burden the state.

Therefore, many electoral promises will be on hold! But people want action. Farmers are restless to get higher prices for farm products, the aspirant middle class is greedy, youth are impatient and the business community wants more and more concessions to earn easier profits. This discontent is not easy to deal with.

In Maharashtra, between 1974 and 2014, that is in the last forty years, there have been 16  governments (some like Pawar becoming Chief Minister four times, Shankarrao and Vasantdada twice each and so forth), despite the Congress having a stable majority in the House. Without going into the  causes of that instability, it would be enough to note that confidence motions and majorities in the House do not ensure stability of the government.

Perhaps this recognition of a biting political reality is behind the speculation about the survival of the Fadnavis government.

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