Opinion: Farm Factor in BJP's Sweep of MP

The recent election in Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP fought off four-term anti-incumbency, has put the spotlight on the state's largely unnoticed agrarian revolution, similar to the Green Revolution that ushered in an agrarian makeover of Punjab and Haryana in the 1960s.

Yes, while the appeal of Prime Minister Narendra Modi worked electoral magic, spectacular gains accruing to the agrarian economy, particularly in the last five years, along with a surge in support from female voters, contributed to the audacious win that powered the BJP to a two-thirds majority.

According to the exit poll conducted by Axis My India, rural votes for the BJP jumped six percentage points to 46 percent of the total vote share.

This makes sense, given that agriculture accounts for the biggest chunk - 36.22 per cent - of the state's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022-23 and 60 per cent of its work force. The obvious electoral corollary is that any improvement in the agrarian economy will improve the lot of the bulk of the state's voters.

A research study co-authored by Ashok Gulati, agricultural economist and former chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), published by ICRIER, a think tank, argues that the makeover began in 2005-06, and gained unprecedented acceleration in the last five years.

Between 2005-06 and 2014-15, MP's agriculture grew at an average of 9.7 percent per annum - the highest by any state, including Punjab and Haryana, over a 10-year period. In the next five years this trend rate of growth accelerated to an incredible 14.2 percent, the study added.

Secret Sauce

The obvious thought is how Madhya Pradesh went from being the perennial laggard of the Indian economy, to pulling off this agricultural miracle, the likes of which we last saw in the Green Revolution in the 1960s.

Drawing from Gulati's research it is apparent that success was enabled by providing long-denied basics like irrigation, electricity, transparent procurement of produce, and all-weather rural roads.

In 2000-1, the irrigation ratio in MP was 24 percent, compared to the all-India average of 41.2 percent. By 2014-15 the state caught up with the rest of the country and this proportion rose to 42.8 percent - just five percentage points below the national average. This success, as Gulati points out, was made possible by the government's strategy to secure stable power supplies to rural MP to ensure groundwater extraction through tube wells.

According to the state's latest Economic Survey, the supply of power for irrigation grew from 9,438 million units in 2011-12 to 26,725 million units in 2021-22 - nearly trebling in this period.

Further, to incentivise farmers to grow wheat, the state threw in a bonus over and above the Minimum Support Price (MSP) provided by the union government. Consequently, the share of Madhya Pradesh in national procurement has grown spectacularly from a mere two per cent in 2002-03 to 27 per cent in the just-concluded Rabi marketing season for 2023-24; Madhya Pradesh (70.98 lakh tonnes) edged out Haryana (63.17 lakh tonnes) to claim the second spot. In fact, Madhya Pradesh is now the country's second largest producer of wheat.

The state re-modelled its procurement process through digitisation and innovation, e-Uparajan. The latter ensured that farmers brought their produce to the marketplace for procurement by appointment, eliminating overcrowding.

Access was further improved through the rapid expansion of all-weather rural roads. The growth in rural roads, as mapped by the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), has seen a dramatic spike since 2004-05.

The next year, the growth of completed rural roads surged by over 50 per cent to 9.100.26 km. There was no let-up in the momentum after that. In the next two decades, completed rural roads in Madhya Pradesh grew 11-fold to 72,944 km in 2022-23.

The Outcome

This policy mix, combined with the political leadership of Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, ensured an improvement in the ecosystem for farming in the state. This in turn caused Madhya Pradesh to buck the national trend and grow the share of agriculture in the state's GDP.

Between 2003-04 and 2010-11, the share of agriculture in GDP declined from 29.8 percent to 22.5 percent. However, it surged to 30 percent in 2014-15 and grew further to 36.22 percent in 2022-23.

From Gulati's research and anecdotal evidence, the farmers were the key stakeholders in this transformation. They behaved transactionally, sensing the chance for improved profitability for their produce. Exactly why they seized the incentives provided by the state government to diversify into high return crops like horticulture and medicinal plants - though both come with high commercial risks.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is apparent that the gains accruing to the agrarian economy did help address the growing aspirations of the rural populace. Eventually, like in any election, no single factor swings the verdict. Inevitably, it is a combination of factors - in this instance, it is reasonable to conclude that the state's agrarian successes influenced the verdict, possibly even tilting the scales.

(Anil Padmanabhan is a journalist who writes on the intersection of politics and economics.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.