Opinion | CAA, Agnipath, Caste Census: How Will Modi 3.0 Navigate These Issues?

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA (National Democratic Alliance) is all set to form its third consecutive government at the Centre under Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The results of the Lok Sabha elections have turned out to be lower than the BJP's stated expectations of the NDA winning 400-plus seats. The alliance's numbers did not cross 300, while the BJP managed to win only 240 seats, 32 short of the majority mark. 

As the NDA comes to power for the third time, alliance partners like Bihar chief minister and Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) supremo Nitish Kumar and the Telugu Desam Party's (TDP) N. Chandrababu Naidu will be playing a prominent role in the functioning of the coalition government for the next five years. This time, PM Modi's government would be dependent on these two key allies, which command 12 and 16 seats, respectively. 

There is, in fact, much chatter about what the Modi government would do about its pre-poll agendas, like the Uniform Civil Code (UCC), the one-nation-one-election pitch, and the implementation of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA). The ongoing debate over disputed temple sites in Kashi and Mathura will also be in focus, as also contentious issues like conducting a caste census and reviewing the Agnipath scheme.  

The BJP had been riding high on the Hindutva plank over the last 10 years. The timing of the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya was considered a master-stroke, but ironically, the party lost the Faizabad parliamentary seat, of which Ayodhya is a part. Union Minister Smriti Irani also could not retain her Amethi seat despite being prominently visible in her constituency. People voted the BJP out in several seats in not only Uttar Pradesh but also other states as they prioritised civic issues over religion. 

In that light, the BJP may now have to put controversial issues like Kashi and Mathura on the back burner. Religious politics may have to be subtly replaced with the compulsions of a 'political economy'. There are many 'lessons' that the party will have to draw from this verdict. The fact that the BJP might need to revisit its 'basic structure' while simultaneously acceding to the demands of key coalition partners is going to be against its traditional working style.

Over the last 10 years, the Prime Minister himself had transitioned to a 'Presidential model' of decision-making that reflected a lack of a consultative approach. He may now have to tweak his personal style to avoid rubbing not only the NDA alliance partners but even leaders within his own party the wrong way.

Citizens, foreign investors, domestic industrialists and all other stakeholders in the nation's development look for political stability, something the country benefited from over the last 10 years. Quick decision-making, infrastructural development and strong project execution stand out as the BJP's achievements since 2014. There were avoidable situations - like the farmers' unrest, the wrestlers' protests, and the silence on Manipur - that hurt the sensibilities of the common citizens across the country. The party perhaps failed to gauge the impact of these factors on their pursuit of a straight third term term.

On The UCC Debate

In a major boost to the NDA, the JD(U) has backed the 'one nation, one poll' and the UCC proposals. But the party wants to engage all stakeholders before reaching a decision.

For the BJP, the UCC has been an emotive issue since the beginning. However, the low Muslim vote should be seen as an indication of the community's lack of support towards the issue.  The TDP, too, would not like to be seen as supporting the UCC given Chandrababu Naidu's strong outreach to the Muslim community. In 2023, he had assured them that his party would not take any decision that goes against their interests.

CAA Implementation

The implementation of the CAA was an important election promise in 2019. On March 11 this year, just weeks before the Lok Sabha elections, the Modi government notified the rules. The contentious act had faced numerous delays and continued criticism from opposition parties, including the now-friendly JD(U). But even after re-joining the NDA in January 2024, Nitish Kumar has clearly opposed the implementation of the CAA in Bihar.  On the other hand, Naidu has in the past expressed support for the new rules. This may thus become be a tricky subject in the days to come. 

Simultaneous Elections 

PM Modi, while launching the BJP's manifesto on April 14, reiterated the party's commitment to 'one nation, one election' and a UCC, but skipped any mention of the National Register for Citizens (NRC).

While Nitish has expressed support for simultaneous elections - citing reduced financial burden, policy continuity, political stability and logistical - the TDP's stance remains unclear as it had not submitted its recommendations on the subject to the Ramnath Kovind-led panel.

Caste Census & Agnipath Scheme

The JD(U) has already conducted a caste census in Bihar, and the party wants to now extend it across the country. The TDP, in contrast, prefers a 'skill census', focusing on wealth creation and not subsidies. The BJP will have to do a fine balancing between its two partners. The JD(U), as well as another BJP ally, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), have also favoured revisiting the Agnipath scheme as there is a general feeling that the BJP's tally was in part affected by youth discontent over the scheme. 

Coalition dharma will be a learning curve for Modi 3.0. In the larger interest of the country's continued development, job creation must take precedence over rhetoric. Identifying and grooming the next generation of leaders is also an idea that must be embraced. After all, it can be said that the voters have displayed a certain apathy towards cult politics driven by both the national parties. They have strongly asserted that people and their interests should be the sole objectives of politics. 

PM Modi has got the message, and now he has a chance to show that his credibility and the trust the public puts in him can't be taken for granted. He, his party and his allies are all being watched by the strongest pillar of India's proud democracy - the people.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is Contributing Editor, NDTV) 

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author