"Naan vandhutennu sollu, thirumbi vandhutennu''
(Tell them I have come, that I have come back)
T.T.V. Dhinakaran could well be mouthing this popular Rajinikanth dialogue from his 2016 blockbuster Kabali, where the superstar's character announces his return to his homeland after 25 years. Dhinakaran, too, hopes to return as MP from Theni in Tamil Nadu after a quarter of a century. He was elected as MP in 1999 from present-day Theni (which was Periyakulam before delimitation), though he lost from here in 2004.
A lot has changed in the last 25 years. Then, he was the blue-eyed boy of the late J. Jayalalithaa. Today, he is the leader of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK). He has hitched his wagon to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after having parted ways with the AIADMK.
Old Ties
Pitted against Dhinakaran is Thanga Tamilselvan of the DMK. Both used to be in the AIADMK once, and it was Dhinakaran who had introduced Tamilselvan to Jayalalithaa and aunt Sasikala, who controlled the party apparatus back then. In 2001, he was given the ticket to contest from the Andipatti assembly seat. Tamilselvan endeared himself to Jayalalithaa when he resigned as Andipatti legislator a year later to make way for the AIADMK supremo in a bypoll. This was after Jayalalithaa was cleared of charges in a corruption case in December 2001 and needed to become an MLA to remain chief minister. After a stint in the Rajya Sabha, Tamilselvan returned to represent Andipatti in 2011 and 2016.
Dhinakaran and Tamilselvan had been together till not so long ago. After Jayalalithaa's death in December 2016, Tamilselvan stood with Dhinakaran and contested the 2019 Lok Sabha election from Theni as a candidate of the AMMK, the party floated by the latter. He finished third behind the AIADMK and the Congress.
How do the friends-turned-foes match up against each other today?
What Works - And Doesn't - For Dhinakaran
Dhinakaran is being called an `outsider' by his political opponents but has the advantage of being seen as the foremost leader among the Mukulathor or Thevars, the community that dominates this belt. Traditional AIADMK supporters are angry that Edappadi Palaniswami has turned the party from a Thevar-dominated organisation till a few years ago to a Gounder party, the community Edappadi K. Palaniswami hails from. The party no longer has space for Thevar leaders like Dhinakaran, V.K. Sasikala and O. Panneerselvam (OPS).
Dhinakaran also has the reputation of being generous with donations to temples and community buildings like schools. These are gestures that matter because, come election time, these become IOUs. Dhinakaran is also using the Narendra Modi card to the hilt, talking of goodies that could come the constituency's way should it elect him.
Theni, incidentally, was the only seat the NDA could bag in Tamil Nadu in 2019. P. Raveendranath, son of O. Panneerselvam, was the winning candidate. The father-son duo is backing Dhinakaran this time. OPS, as the story goes, was introduced to Jayalalithaa by Dhinakaran.
What could prove a challenge for Dhinakaran though is his party symbol. He has to not only ensure that the 15 lakh voters in Theni constituency recognise his pressure cooker symbol, but he also knows that for the Tamil Nadu voter, there is a sentimental attachment to the two leaves or the rising sun. The NDA is banking on Dhinakaran to plug all gaps, particularly the mobilisation of voters at the booth level, given his experience of having supervised several elections during his AIADMK years.
Tamilselvan's Strengths
On the other hand, Tamilselvan has the backing of the powerful DMK machinery and the benefit of easy identification with the rising sun symbol. He can also evoke sympathy for his defeat in the last election. Like Dhinakaran, Tamilsevan, too, is from the Mukulathor community and has handled several elections. In fact, he managed the Andipatti constituency for Jayalalithaa.
The dark horse would be the AIADMK. What would work to the advantage of V.T. Narayanasamy, the AIADMK candidate, is that the two-leaf symbol is undeniably the most popular in this constituency, which has always been an AIADMK stronghold. Many party loyalists may blindly opt for it without doing a micro-analysis of the credentials of any of the candidates. Besides, Narayanasamy is an old-timer in the AIADMK and has his own support base.
A victory for Dhinakaran from Theni could start a fresh round of consolidation around him of the Thevar community, which has been feeling left out in the political wilderness. From the roller coaster ride from Periyakulam, the mercurial ties with party leader Jayalalithaa, and a historic win from her constituency RK Nagar in 2017, to bribery accusation for getting the AIADMK symbol, time in Tihar Jail, launching the AMMK, and a rout at Kovilpatti in 2021, Dhinakaran, if he does manage to return as Theni MP this election, will have come a long way, and a full circle.
(Uma Sudhir is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.