From Didi to Amma, Modi's Big Outreach

A day after he shared the stage with West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee displaying an on-again-off-again camaraderie with the satrap, Prime Minister Narendra Modi called up Tamil Nadu heavyweight Jayalalithaa to congratulate her on her acquittal in the disproportionate assets case. The Prime Minister's election campaign focussed on anti-corruption, so the support for Jayalalithaa, who has been forced to quit as Chief Minister twice over allegations of graft, may seem at odds with that stand.

But even Subramanian Swamy, who had filed the petition against Jayalalithaa in court, appeared unusually mellow, stating, "Such decisions by court arise and many political figures have benefited from it in the past."

So what's really brewing?

Both Jayalalithaa and Mamata Banerjee are formidable regional powerhouses whose support could help the government push through key legislation in Parliament, which will be key to improving Modi's less-than-average performance as Prime Minister in the last one year. It must be remembered that not very long ago, BJP chief Amit Shah had aggressively declared that he would drown Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress in the Gangasagar.

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Pressure was built on the Trinamool citing the Ponzi Saradha scam and the Burdhwan blasts which provoked Ms Banerjee to accuse the Modi government of using the CBI and National Investigation Agency for political games; in fact, just before the Lok Sabha elections, Didi had promised to send Modi behind bars after he appeared to question the purchase of her paintings by a rich industrialist. So after the recent friction, it was surprising that Modi did not just share the dais with Mamata Banerjee in Bengal, but also held two meetings with her alone, where she allegedly lobbied for a massive debt waiver for her state.

That Mamata Banerjee has 34 seats in the Lok Sabha, is being seen as one of the reasons the PM decided to break the ice after a parliamentary session that saw crucial reforms being stonewalled by the opposition.

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But this story is not as much about Mamata Banerjee as it is about Jayalalithaa, revered by her followers as "Amma". With her recent acquittal, Jayalalithaa has not just scored over her political rival in the state, the DMK, but also her rivals at the national level including BJP leader Subramanian Swamy. With Amma's AIADMK forming the third largest party in Parliament, it is reliably believed that Modi has asked for Swamy to be sidelined and for the party to distance itself from any political statement made by the maverick leader.

Jayalalithaa meanwhile has been able to prove that the perception of her as arguably the most formidable woman politician in the country unafraid of vengeance towards her opponents (remember how DMK chief Karunanidhi was arrested from his home late at night in 2001?) but never her "children", the Tamil Nadu voters.

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On the 22nd of this month, Jayalalithaa has called a meeting of her party ostensibly to review plans for her comeback as Chief Minister. Much will depend on whether the Congress government in Karnataka, where she was tried in the disproportionate assets case, will appeal in the Supreme Court against her acquittal. The Congress will have to weigh not just the legal but political repercussions of its decision. Jayalalithaa seems to be confident that by the 22nd, there will be some indication of the same. If the Karnataka government decides against an appeal, it will be easier for the BJP to grab support from her 11 MPs in the Rajya Sabha, where the government is in a minority, and needs opposition support, especially for the Land Acquisition Bill which is turning out to be a huge prestige battle for Narendra Modi.

Another significant aspect to be discussed at Jayalalithaa's meeting next week with her party is whether the AIADMK will ask for early elections in Tamil Nadu (not due till next year) in an attempt to maximize the public sentiment around her acquittal.

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AIADMK sources say the party agenda will focus on launching a statewide campaign alleging a smear campaign against Amma by the DMK, which followed up on the case that was filed by Subramanian Swamy.

The BJP which has been on an electoral decline since the Lok Sabha elections - it fared disastrously performance in Delhi and was routed in the recent West Bengal municipal elections - does not, according to sources, have very high hopes from Bihar, which votes in a few months. Many in the BJP suggest that the remerger of the Janta Parivaar which includes Nitish Kumar and Lalu could keep the BJP from the victory it seeks.  

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In the event of a defeat, an unofficial ally like Jayalalithaa could make a world of a difference for the purposes of parliamentary support.

In a column I wrote for ndtv.com last year when Jayalalithaa was convicted and sentenced to prison, I had opined that the verdict was a mere career slump and it would be unwise to write a political obituary of the iconic, authoritarian leader. Make no mistake. Jayalalithaa's back.

(Rana Ayyub is an award-winning investigative journalist and political writer. She is working on a book on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, which will be published later this year.)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.