Opposition Unites To Pay Modi In Same Coin

Battle-lines have been drawn. The future is clear. Demonetisation has created a new fault line between the treasury benches and the opposition. There has never been any empathetic moment between the two, but Modi 's gamble has sharpened the divide. The opposition has seized the moment and Modi is also prepared for assault. It is difficult to predict who will win, but one thing is sure: this battle will define the future and help reshape Indian democracy. In the last 30 months, Modi has had the upper hand and the opposition was defensive. It is the first time that the opposition has smelt blood and the new-found aggression is showing. Inside and outside parliament, Modi has to defend himself.

The national election of 2014 threw up a very weak and fractured opposition. The Congress was smashed. Regional players were busy in their own states. A few decided to not to oppose Modi in any way. He is the most powerful Prime Minster since Rajiv Gandhi. He is the only non-Congress Prime Minster who has a majority on his own. And he rode the famous Modi wave like a giant. Since he took charge of the nation, a new narrative has emerged. No voice of dissent is tolerated and disagreement is not welcome. Opposition of any kind is crushed. Government agencies are unleashed on citizens and leaders like mad dogs. A minor hint of opposition can land people in jail. Any diversion from the official line means inviting trouble. An atmosphere of fear and disquiet has enveloped the entire spectrum.

The BJP's storm troopers bully people in the physical as well as the digital space. Rule of law is openly manipulated for the benefit of supporters and exploited to silence others. The violent fringe has become the main stream, it has acquired respectability. People are killed on the pretext of their eating habits. Nationalism and patriotism have become one-way streets. Counter arguments and counter culture have no meaning. Even the judiciary has not been spared. Judges are feeling the heat. The media is subjugated. Minorities are living in fear. Civil society is hounded by the government agencies and vocal brigades.

In this context, demonetisation has been a God-sent opportunity. On the night of November 8, Modi in one stroke rendered 86% of currency useless. Cash transactions have become impossible. Like the lines of the Great Depression in 1929 in America, the Indian population is standing in queues like beggars to regain their own hard-earned money. This was allegedly done to kill the demon of black money. Standing in queue is the new version of nationalism pitched by the BJP. To die waiting for one's own money is the new martyrdom and the certificate of new nationalism. Society is highly polarised. Two clear camps are waging a war against each other. The poor, lower middle class, daily wagers, rural dwellers, women, senior citizens, small traders and those who transact in cash in their daily life are cursing the state; the well-off, salaried class, white collar population, middle and the upper class, rich credit and debit card holders are singing the praises of Modi.

The divide has allowed an unprecedented unity in anti-Modi parties. Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal, Mamata Banerjee and the Left have all have been seen on the streets, holding rallies and openly criticising and protesting against Modi for putting citizens in a state-created-misery. For the first time ever, Modi looks nervous. He cried in front of the public and said he could be killed for fighting corruption. The opposition has called for a Bharat Bandh on November 28. In 1967, the opposition for the first time got together in the name of Anti-Congressism and could then defeat the Congress in many states and went on to form governments.

Indira Gandhi had seemed invincible after the Bangladesh War. She was hailed as Durga. Much like it is today, her chamchas had said "Indira is India and India is Indira." But a mess bill hike in a Gujarat engineering college triggered a mass movement in the early 70s and turned the same Indira Gandhi into the most hated leader just a few years later. Under the leadership of  the legendary JP, all opposition parties merged their identities and formed the Janta Party. The Congress was defeated in 1977 at the centre. Similarly, history was again repeated in 1989. V P Singh was the new leading light. Bofors proved to the the nemesis for Rajiv Gandhi. A united opposition, including Jyoti Basu and L K Advani, successfully trounced the Congress.

Will the past be repeated? That is the question which should be asked today. On all three occasions, one leader played a pivotal role, became a glue for the rest and then ideology became redundant. In the 60s, if it was Ram Manohar Lohia's anti-Congressism which united the opposition, then in the 70s and the 80s, JP and V P Singh were the source of inspiration and acted as strategic centres for the rest. Today, it is too early to predict who will serve as the fulcrum. But  anti-Congressism has been replaced by anti-BJPism. It is the new buzz word. There is no denying the fact that an institutional framework has not yet been devised to encapsulate the anger of the people, nor is the opposition yet showing a firm resolve to work as one entity, but a certain cohesion is definitely emerging.

In 2016, ideological fissures are not as deep as they were in 67, 77 and 89. Then three definite ideological streams - socialist, communist and Hindutva - were competing to replace the Congress system. All three were also fighting with each other in different geographical regions. The ideological divide was so strong that the communists and Hindutva could not see eye to eye. There was no middle ground, but even so, in 1989, the CPM and the BJP supported V P Singh's government from outside. It was the most bizarre political experiment in India's political history.

Today, the opposition is definitely fractured but ideological division is not as sharp as it was on earlier occasions. Today, Hindutva is on one side and modern-secular-liberal forces of varying shades are on the other side. Most of the political parties are individual-centric. Mamata Banerjee has already shown willingness to walk the few extra miles with the Left. Lalu and Nitish Kumar are in the same camp. Mulayam and Mayawati are bitter rivals, like Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, but these are more ego battles than ideological. has added a new vigour to Indian politics through its agitational methods and anti-corruption genesis.

Can they come together and then force the government to retreat is the question. The past offers hope, the future will give the answer. A new framework is on the horizon to save India from turning into a fascist state.

(Ashutosh joined the Aam Aadmi Party in January 2014.)

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