With just days to go for the G20 Summit, India is gearing up to welcome a galaxy of powerful global leaders. Given the high-profile nature of the event, expectations are high. Important questions are also being raised. Will Xi Jinping give the event a miss? Would tensions over the Russia-Ukraine War hijack the summit? Will Xi Jinping and Joe Biden have a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the summit? These issues will remain points of discussion over the next few days. Besides these questions, there are three broader issues that will attract significant attention.
First, one needs to address the elephant in the room - Russia's war in Ukraine. Ever since the war began in February 2022, tensions have been high between Russia and NATO member states. During the G20 Summit in Bali last year, these tensions threatened to overshadow the entire summit. Western powers pushed for a resolution that condemned Russian military action in Ukraine. During the Bali summit, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused NATO countries of launching a "hybrid" war and asked western powers not to "politicise" the summit. Ukrainian President Vlodoymyr Zelenskiy participated virtually, addressing the summit members.
A year later in Delhi, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to dominate the international discourse. At a media interaction, Russian Ambassador to India Denis Alipov accused "certain countries" of trying to "hijack" the G20 Summit's agenda. Sergei Lavrov has also threatened to block any resolution that does not take into account Russian interests in Ukraine. As the host, the ball will be in India's court to ensure these tensions do not overshadow the meeting. The summit also provides India an opportunity to try and get both sides to reach some a middle ground. Given India's equations with both the NATO powers and Russia, this can be a possibility.
Second, geopolitical equations in the Middle East have evolved significantly since the last G20 Summit in Bali. While the US and Saudi Arabia remain close allies, tensions have arisen between the two regarding oil production. In July, OPEC+ countries jointly agreed to cut down oil production by around 1.4 million barrels per day. This fuelled fears of a significant increase in oil prices. With western economies in particular struggling to control rising inflation, this came as a major setback. President Biden described this as a "betrayal" and vowed further action.
The recent days have also seen a steady thaw in Saudi Arabia-Iran relations. Formerly bitter rivals, both sides have engaged in deepening dialogue, in an alleged deal brokered by the Chinese. For the US, which has long strained ties with Iran, this adds a layer of complication. The BRICS' resolution to induct Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt and the UAE as new members, geopolitical equations in the Middle East has changed significantly since the last G20 meeting.
Will Biden use the G20 Summit to iron out tensions with the US' Middle Eastern allies? With Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the UAE's President Mohamed Bin-Zayed and Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq all slotted to attend the summit, this would be an important development to keep an eye on.
Third, how will India use the G20 to assert its position as an important global power? In a deeply divided international system, India is in a very unique position. On the one hand India-US ties have grown stronger. The US sees India as a vital strategic partner. At the same time, India still maintains strong economic ties with Russia. Given the trust India enjoys on both sides, the summit offers a chance for India to emerge as a possible mediator. Its first challenge will be to ensure tensions between Russia and the West does not overshadow the summit.
The coming few days offer India a chance to deepen its ties with the US. Since Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the US in June, both sides have affirmed the importance of the relationship. Biden described the US' ties with India as "the most defining partnership of the 21st century". The US President is set to reach India on September 7 and is likely to hold bilateral discussions with PM Modi prior to the summit. The US clearly views India as a vital part of its broader strategy to counter-balance growing Chinese aggression in the South China Sea region. Therefore, the bilateral engagement between PM Modi and Biden will attract a great deal of attention.
It would be equally interesting to observe how India engages with China. The recently concluded BRICS summit offered PM Modi and Xi Jinping a chance to meet in person. Several differences have emerged between the two sides since the BRICS summit. While Chinese officials claimed that the meeting was held upon India's request, the Indian side was quick to respond suggesting that it was the Chinese who asked for the meeting. More crucially, India has lodged its strong protest in response to a map released by the Chinese showing Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh as parts of Chinese territory. Therefore, close attention will be given to the interaction between Indian and Chinese leaders at the summit.
With just days to go before the G20 Summit, all eyes and interests are tuned in to this global diplomatic blockbuster. A year since the last summit in Bali, the international political landscape has seen several changes. While the Russia-Ukraine war remains the elephant in the room, a close eye will need to be kept on the changing geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. With most of the protagonists from the Middle East attending the Summit, this is sure to attract significant attention. For India, the G20 presidentship offers a unique chance to assert its position as an important global power. The coming few days will be an invaluable window of opportunity.
The author is an Assistant Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences, GITAM Deemed to be University, Visakhapatnam.
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.