Opinion | Can The New President Save America's Waning 'Soft Power'?

Donald Trump appears to be on the cusp of winning the American presidency. He is projected to win the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, which has made his victory almost certain. He has already picked up the battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia. Kamala Harris is staring at defeat. However, as early as last week, when over 66 million Americans had already cast their ballots for the presidential election, claims of vote rigging and fraud had begun flooding social media. It was reminiscent of 2020, when Trump took to social media to declare himself the “real” winner, sparking the “Stop the Steal” rallying cry among his supporters. Naturally, this time, around 70% of Americans believed that Trump would reject the results if he lost.

It's almost unimaginable, isn't it? After all, this is the American democracy that used to be the world's gold standard, the peaceful transfer of power something other nations aspired to mirror. As an Indian who has covered many elections, I can say the contrast is striking—our democracy may have its quirks, but we are rather used to smooth transfers of power. 

Meanwhile, the America that once championed the free press and the right to protest now appears stuck in a state of democratic backsliding. Polarisation, bipartisan gridlock and eroded trust in government have taken their toll, with big-money campaigns and public mistrust steadily chipping away at the foundations. What might President Ronald Reagan think about the state of his country? He was known for his robust American exceptionalism views and often emphasised America's moral superiority and divine mission to spread democracy.

Even so, there is no denying that American democracy's global appeal is not diminished and democracy continues to be its most influential soft power—at least for now.

Highest Stakes Ever

The year 2024 saw elections in over 60 countries—including major democracies, such as India and the UK—but none with stakes as high as the US presidential election. Everyone's attention has been glued to the campaign, not just because it's America, but also because the US election results make a huge impact across continents. 

The reason is simple: US presidential outcomes still shape the global order. This election is no different. Ukraine, European allies and other democracies are all watching closely, many hoping for a Kamala Harris win for her promise of stability and continuity. Her supporters believe that her opponent, Donald Trump, would likely bring a stark shift in foreign policy, with implications for international relations, trade, climate and even global security. The Obama administration's foreign policy centred on consensus-building and alliance-strengthening, a message that resonated globally. In contrast, Trump's “America First” approach from 2016 to 2020 disrupted traditional alliances and fuelled nationalist movements overseas. Biden's 2020 win restored focus on partnerships and climate action, reshaping international stances. This year's outcome could once again redefine the global landscape.

Whither The American 'Exceptionalism'?

Historically, we know that the US has projected itself as a global advocate for democratic values: rule of law, individual rights and a free press. During the Cold War, we might recall it pushed the narrative, quite successfully, that its democratic system stood in sharp contrast to Soviet-style authoritarianism, promoting a narrative that democracy meant prosperity, emancipation, freedom, and progress. 

The belief in American exceptionalism—an idea that the US has a unique mission to lead the world— has been exported powerfully through one of America's greatest soft power channels: its entertainment industry. Hollywood, music and media became global messengers of the American dream. 

Take, for example, the 2011 movie "Captain America: The First Avenger", where the hero embodies American ideals of courage, patriotism, and freedom. Or consider the unmatched cultural impact of a global icon like Michael Jackson, whose music and persona inspired generations worldwide, making him one of America's most influential cultural exports. Needless to say, these examples showcase how American values, blended with art and entertainment, create a powerful global presence that transcends borders. 

What Constitutes America's Soft Power?

American campuses have long been centres of excellence, focussing sharply on research, creativity and innovation. Known for fostering bold ideas and rigorous debate, universities like MIT, Stanford and Harvard have attracted students from across the globe, shaping generations of leaders and thinkers. This atmosphere of intellectual freedom has led to groundbreaking discoveries in fields as diverse as artificial intelligence, biotechnology and economics. Such institutions have become synonymous with American soft power, their influence felt far beyond US borders as they inspire countless young minds to think big and push boundaries

Technology born on American soil—like the smartphone, social media platforms and search engines—has radically transformed communication, reshaping media and society on a global scale. American innovation has allowed individuals worldwide to connect, share ideas and gain access to information in unprecedented ways. For better or for worse, it is embedded in our daily life. This technological legacy showcases the US as a leader in digital transformation and projects its values of freedom and connectivity, continuously amplifying America's soft power and cultural influence worldwide.

For many young people worldwide, securing a US green card symbolises a gateway to the American dream—a chance to live, work and thrive in a land they see as one of opportunity and freedom. It's more than just a visa; theoretically, it's the promise of a life shaped by the ideals of self-made success. 

More Than Military Muscle

When we think of  “superpower,” the mind often jumps straight to America's military muscle. That is because it is so tangible. But America's soft power is less associated with its status as the sole superpower. It is actually America's potent cocktail of military might and savvy soft power that sets it apart. This unique blend keeps the US in a league of its own, balancing brute force with influence. With an estimated 750 military bases across 80 countries, America's footprint spans the globe like no other. You might think America's biggest export would be weapons sales. In reality, the total US defence exports last year stood at $175 billion. In contrast, by several market estimates, its combined entertainment and soft power industry exports exceeded $700 billion. 

So, while the military might establish America's hard power, it is the export of American culture and values that solidifies its global influence. Soft power industries—from Hollywood films and pop music to the digital platforms born in Silicon Valley—reach virtually every corner of the globe. Ultimately, America's superiority stems from its dual influence, its capacity to enforce security globally through its military, while simultaneously cultivating a cultural resonance that inspires people across the world 

Can India Compete?

Although US soft power faces growing competition from cultural exports from India, Turkey, Korea and Japan, I believe it is India that comes closest to challenging the US soft power hegemony.

Here is why. On Diwali, I found myself window shopping in a South London mall, astonished to see festival celebrations at two separate locations on the same floor. Participants came from various nationalities. Diwali was celebrated at Trafalgar Square, and indeed all across the UK. A software engineer working for the German company SAP told me his office in Tanzania was closed for Diwali. Diyas were lit from the White House to 10 Downing Street—a glittering glimpse of India's soft power reach.

But let's be honest, our biggest export is cinema, specifically Bollywood's Hindi films. Over a decade ago, I travelled for work through Central Asia, Europe and Africa to understand Bollywood's reach beyond the Indian diaspora. I was stunned. I met a German woman who taught Bollywood dance in her studio in Hannover. This was her livelihood and she had never been to India. I met a White German mother-daughter duo who argued over who was a bigger Shah Rukh Khan fan. Both of them said they would love to visit "Mannat", Khan's Mumbai home. In Marrakesh, I met a 35-year-old waiter, Abdullah, who said he hadn't missed a Hindi movie since he was 10; his ringtone was a Hindi song. He took me home, where I met his seven-year-old daughter who could sing Hindi songs I didn't even know. The director of the Marrakech Film Festival told me that when Shah Rukh Khan arrived for the festival, there was bedlam outside the venue. She could not stop saying how big a star Khan was in Morocco. Until that moment, I hadn't fully realised just how powerful and far-reaching Hindi cinema, songs, and dance truly were.

Some believe Indian cultural or soft power exports need more direction and support from the government. Embassies each take their own approach, but I believe it's best for Indian soft power to spread organically, just as it has for all these years.

For now, the US remains the most influential soft power exporter. But it can slip up. India has to be ready. As divisions deepen, America's democracy appears increasingly frail, struggling to uphold the ideals it once championed on the global stage. The question is, will it stay an inspiring example for other democracies? We will know after the election results are out.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author