The Haryana assembly elections will go down in India's electoral history as one of the biggest upsets. This once again proves the point that Congress has mastered the art of gloriously losing a winning election. In Haryana, where it was taken for certain that the Congress had been heading for a big victory, it lost badly. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), for which no opinion poll or exit poll had predicted even a faint victory, managed to win, and with a good margin too. This is yet another proof that in a country as diverse as India, election prediction is in need of major course correction.
Haryana is a fabulous example of the BJP's killer instinct under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. The result is a victory for the BJP's perseverance, patience and fighting spirit. The party knew from the beginning that Haryana would present an uphill task, and it planned accordingly. On the other hand, the Congress again became a victim of its over-confidence. Letting its guard down, it took the elections for granted and is now paying the price for that. In my opinion, five factors led to the BJP's victory.
BJP's Expert Micro-Management
One, the BJP planned things at the micro-level. Once it realised that it might lose badly in Haryana, it moved fast and changed its Chief Minister of nine-and-a-half years. Manohar Lal Khattar, who was proving to be a liability for the party, was replaced by Nayab Singh Saini. Khattar was also kept out of the election campaign; no party posters or banners featured him. Ultimately, the strategy seems to have worked well for the party.
Second, the BJP had been working on consolidating its non-Jat votes. Making up over 20% of the population, the Jats are a dominant and powerful caste in Haryana. The community has given the maximum number of chief ministers to the state since its formation. Saini's appointment as the Chief Minister also gave a clear message to the OBC community.
Three, the Congress, in its arrogance, forgot that the BJP, with the help of its massive organisation and resources, as well as a great appetite for micro-management, would ensure that its voters went to the polling booth and voted for the party. On the other hand, the Congress, lacking organisational muscle power, failed to mobilise its voters. That's a lesson the Congress will have to learn, that it will need to micro-manage till the last voter.
Congress Couldn't Nip Factionalism
Fourth, the Congress was riddled with factionalism till the last day of voting. The rivalry between Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja tilted the scales in the favour of the BJP. Hooda should have been accommodative, but instead, he was so defiant that he didn't even listen to his leader, Rahul Gandhi, who was in favour of forming an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Many rounds of negotiations did take place between the AAP and the Congress leaders. True, the former did not win any seat in the election, but it got roughly 1.78% of the votes. If it had allied with the Congress, it would have surely added to the INDIA bloc's kitty.
Fifth, contrary to expectations after the Lok Sabha elections, it seems that Dalit and Jat voters did not show full support for the Congress. In the national polls, the 'Save The Constitution' campaign by Rahul and the INDIA bloc had worked effectively for the opposition, especially in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra.
There was no such campaign this time. Two smaller parties, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), joined hands with those who are for their Dalit Politics. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) was in alliance with the INLD, while Chandrashekhar Azad was with the JJP. Although the latter alliance couldn't do much - it got almost 1% of votes - the INLD-BSP combine managed to bag approximately 6% of votes. In a keenly contested election and the first-past-the-post system, even a fraction of votes can decide an election. The combined vote share of these two formations is around 7%. Together, they surely dealt a blow to the Congress, which had been banking heavily on Jat and Dalit support.
The Art Of Losing
Lastly, the Congress should also think about its elderly, 75-plus leaders. In Madhya Pradesh, where the Congress was confident of winning assembly elections, it was led by Kamal Nath. Both Nath and Hooda are from the old-world vintage. But that world has changed drastically. If the Congress is serious about fighting and defeating the Modi-led BJP, it will have to find young leaders.
Haryana is the fifth assembly election after Punjab, Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh that the Congress should have won, but didn't. Will the party introspect and make changes? Only time will tell.
(Ashutosh is the author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author