Opinion | Haryana Polls: BJP Aims For Record, Congress Seeks Comeback

Haryana will vote on October 5 for its 90 assembly seats, with results to be declared on October 8. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)  aims to create a record by winning a third consecutive term, while the Congress seeks to make a comeback, leveraging a decade of anti-incumbency sentiments and protests from farmers, wrestlers, and youth regarding the Agniveer scheme.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress-Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) alliance led in 46 assembly segments, and the Congress, though fighting alone this time, hopes to replicate that success in the assembly polls, buoyed by support from the influential Jat community.

The Candidate Pool

A total of 1,031 candidates are contesting: 89 are from the Congress, 90 from the BJP, one from the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), 89 from the AAP, 86 from the Indian National Lok Dal-Bahujan Samaj Party (INLD-BSP) alliance, 79 from the Jannayak Janta Party-Azad Samaj Party (JJP-ASP) alliance, 120 from other smaller parties (120), and 477 as independents. The number of candidates contesting in 2019 was 1,169, averaging 13 per seat; this has come down to 11.5 per seat in 2024.

In 2024, 477 independents are contesting, likely due to a high number of rebels from both major parties - 19 from the BJP and 29 from the Congress. In the Ahirwal (Gurugram) and Braj (Faridabad) regions, both BJP strongholds, the number of candidates exceeds 11.5 per seat.

The highest number of candidates this year (21) are contesting from Hisar, where BJP rebel Savitri Jindal is running. The lowest number is in Kalawali and Nangal Chaudhary, with five candidates each. 

The 2019 elections saw a close contest, with victory margins of less than 5,000 votes in 25 seats: the BJP won nine, the Congress 12, and the JJP and others each secured two such seats. In 53 instances, the second runner-up received more votes than the victory margin, complicating the results for several parties.

Triangular Contests In Past

The largely bipolar contest between the INLD and the Congress from 2000 to 2009 evolved into a triangular contest among the BJP, the Congress, and the INLD in 2014, and the BJP, the Congress, and the JJP/others in 2019.

Of the last three elections, two - 2009 and 2019 - resulted in marginally hung assemblies, with "Others" acting as kingmakers. The Congress formed a government with the support of independents in 2009, while the BJP allied with the JJP post-election in 2019. Even in the 2024 general elections, victory margins were thin in six of the 10 seats, ranging from 2% to 6%.

In direct one-to-one contests with the BJP, the Congress was leading in 2019. Out of 51 such seats, the Congress won 26 and the BJP 25. In the remaining 39 seats, the Congress could manage only five wins, as the JJP, the INLD, independents, and others walked away with many.

In 2019, the JJP secured 31% of Jat community votes, while the Congress received 36%. Among the 37 seats influenced by the Jat community, with a population exceeding 20%, the JJP and others won 11, the Congress 14, and the BJP 12, leading to a three-way split that hindered the Congress's prospects.

Caste As A Driving Factor

Haryana's society is highly caste-driven. The BJP has nominated 35 candidates from the general category (Brahmins, Rajputs, Punjabi Khatris, Baniyas, etc.), while the Congress has allocated a maximum of 29 tickets to Jats. The BJP aims to consolidate support from the general category and OBC communities, while the Congress is focusing on Jats, SCs, and Muslims.

The INDIA bloc performed well among OBCs, SCs, and Jats in the general elections, with 51% support from OBCs, 68% from SCs, and 62% from Jats going to the Congress and the AAP. The Congress also garnered significant support from women (49%), youth (47%), and farmers (61%), according to data from the CSDS. 

The Congress is relying on familiar faces, retaining 29 of its 31 MLAs, while the BJP is opting for new candidates, dropping 15 of its 40 MLAs. Dynastic politics remain prevalent, with 13 candidates from the families of Devi Lal, Bansi Lal, and Bhajan Lal contesting under the banners of the BJP, the Congress, the INLD, and the JJP.

The Congress aims to strengthen its position in Ahirwal, Bagri, Braj, and the GT Belt Road while consolidating its influence in Jatland. The BJP's weaknesses are evident in Jatland and Bagri, where it needs to improve its performance to retain power.

BJP's Concerns

The trends from Lok Sabha to Vidhan Sabha elections are concerning for the BJP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party led in 79 assembly segments, which dropped to 40 in the assembly polls held just six months later. Its vote share plummeted from 58% to 37%.

While the BJP hopes that "Others" will play the spoiler, the Congress is aiming for a bipolar contest similar to the 2024 general elections.

In the final days of campaigning, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi have intensified efforts to nationalise the polls and mitigate the influence of vote-splitting candidates. Typically, national leaders like Rahul and Modi focus on broader national issues during their rallies, setting the stage for a potential direct showdown between them. This scenario could have hurt the Congress in the past, but Rahul's rising brand has instilled confidence in the party's ability to navigate this dynamic.

A thrilling election is unfolding in Haryana, with significant implications for national politics. The results will indicate whether the BJP's trajectory is declining or if the Congress's Lok Sabha performance was an aberration.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author