Opinion: Haryana - Will BJP's Experiment With A Non-Jat Chief Minister Pay Off?

In an unexpected move, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has replaced its Haryana Chief Minister ahead of the Lok Sabha polls, with an eye on the Vidhan Sabha elections due later in the year. The party also broke rank with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP), which had supported it in the previous assembly election. The BJP, facing anger from Jats, Dalits and Muslims, who account for 50% of the population, was pushed to 40 seats in the 2019 assembly polls-seven less than in 2014 and six short of a majority-but eventually went on to form a government, courtesy a post-poll alliance with the JJP. 

Tried & Tested Strategy

The change of guard is in line with a similar strategy the BJP has followed in Gujarat, Tripura and Uttarakhand, where it replaced its sitting chief ministers in an attempt to neutralise leader- or government-related anti-incumbency. The strategy reaped dividends in the three states, though it didn't help the party in Karnataka. 

Nayab Singh Saini, the new Haryana chief minister, hails from an Extremely Backward Class (EBC). With that choice, the BJP, it seems, has pushed forward with its strategy of looking past the dominant Jat caste in Haryana and instead consolidating the non-Jat vote, which includes the General category and Other Backward Classes (OBC). At the same time, the BJP hopes that the vote from the Jat community, which constitutes over a fifth of the state's population and is presumably displeased with the party after the farmers' and wrestlers' protests as well as the Agniveer scheme, will get split between the Congress, the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the JJP. 

As for the outgoing chief minister, Manohar Lal Khattar,  he is expected to contest the Lok Sabha polls now and move to the Centre. The irony is that he lost his post just a day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi fondly recalled his friendship with him in a rally.

Looking Past The Dominant Caste 

Haryana now is among the few states where the BJP has experimented with installing chief ministers who don't come from a dominant community. In 2014, it had put at the helm Devendra Fadnavis, a non-Maratha, in Maharashtra, and Raghubar Das, a non-tribal, in Jharkhand. The experiment failed in both states, with the party losing in Jharkhand and being unable to form a government in Maharashtra in subsequent elections in 2019. Correcting its error, the BJP finally installed a Maratha chief minister in Maharashtra in 2022. Nonetheless, it has given the strategy another try in Haryana. 

There is no immediate threat to the BJP government in Haryana as it enjoys the support of independents, the Haryana Lokhit Party (HLP) as well as a few MLAs of the JJP. Though the latter issued a whip to its leaders to abstain from voting, the BJP won the trust vote. 

According to reports, one of the reasons for parting ways was the JJP's demand for a few Lok Sabha seats when the BJP wanted to contest alone. The fact that it could not have forged a tie-up with the Congress or the INLD emboldened the BJP to take the risk of ending the alliance. Jats, in any case, had been unhappy with JJP chief Dushyant Chautala for having aligned with the BJP. In fact, recently, Brijendra Singh, a Jat MP, quit the BJP and crossed over to the Congress. 

Splitting The Jat Vote

The BJP swept Haryana in the last two general elections, winning seven seats in 2014, and later, all 10 in 2019. This was despite having trailed amongst Jats, whose votes were split between the Congress and the INLD.

Data from the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) show that in the 2014 general elections, the BJP received just 19% of Jat support, against 54% for the INLD and 21% for the Congress. The following numbers illustrate the point further:

• In the 2014 assembly elections, the BJP received just 17% of  Jat votes against 42% for the INLD and 24% for the Congress
• In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, while the BJP got 39% of the Jat vote, the Congress got 40% (Axis My India)

At the same time, however, the BJP has been able to consolidate its vote base among the upper castes and OBCs

• In the 2014 general elections, the BJP received just 51% of upper-caste and 43% of OBC support (CSDS). Those figures remained similar in the assembly elections too that year
• In the 2019 general elections, the BJP's upper-caste vote share climbed to 69%, and that of OBCs to 70% (Axis My India)

The Modi Factor 

The BJP is banking on the 'Modi magic' for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. While for 37% of voters, the PM face was the most important factor in general elections, the corresponding number for Haryana in 2019 was 56%. The party also hopes that with Dushyant Chautala now contesting alone, a section of the Jat vote will go to the JJP, thus upsetting the Congress's calculations in the assembly elections.

The BJP could have faced trouble if it were facing any regional party in the state. But since it's Congress that's in the key rival post, strategists are confident that the BJP will be able to repeat its Madhya Pradesh act in the state.

The whole saga appears to be a tactical plan, with the Congress even calling it a 'match-fixing' between the JJP and BJP. It now remains to be seen how much Jat support Chautala is able to pull. The BJP is hoping for some sympathy votes to come his way, given it was not Chautala who walked out of the alliance. The Congress, in turn, is optimistic that Jats would not forgive the JJP and Dushyant for siding with the BJP for over four years, and would instead vote for the grand old party. Interesting times ahead for Haryana. 

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.