There is now an overdose of advice on what India should do against Pakistan. Social media wants everything, from air strikes to full war, dismemberment, and even assassinations. The fury is intense and unsurprising. This was an attack very much like the one Hamas perpetrated on innocent civilians in Israel on October 7, 2023. The intention is still unclear, but what that attack did was destroy a budding rapprochement between Israel and its neighbours, particularly the Saudis.
It is time now to assess why Pakistan launched the attack in Kashmir, and with what objective. The attack may be similar to what happened in Israel, but the histories are entirely different. And so, logically, the reactions should be.
Hamas And Lashkar
The Hamas link is now common knowledge. None other than the Israeli ambassador Reuven Azar has pointed to the similarities of the attack, and the fact that the Hamas was welcomed in a public rally on what Pakistan calls ‘Kashmir Solidarity Day' on February 5 - something at least three Hamas leaders went to in posh SUVs, together with Jaish leaders, including UN-designated terrorist Masood Azhar. That in itself is an offence in international law by Pakistan.
Also, reports now say several visits were made by Hamas teams, including one to the Bahawalpur base of Jaish, and another to a newly inaugurated Pakistan army camp. That's not so outrageous as it sounds. Not only has Pakistan been witness to repeated massive rallies on the Gaza issue, but the country's lawmakers even supported the Hamas attack as it put an end to India-US plans for the Middle East Trade Corridor. On April 24, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) leader Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman called for an office for Hamas in the country and demanded action on Gaza and Kashmir. He was joined by other religious groups as well.
The Jamaat has long been collecting money for Palestine through its ‘Al Khidmat' arm, and the front has already mobilised some $543 million in aid for Hamas. This when Pakistan once again goes begging to China to reschedule a $3.4 billion loan. One would assume that the country would hesitate to antagonise the US, especially under President Donald Trump. But all of this is being done with state support.
And that's the thing about Pakistan. There is seldom any logic to its actions: broke in the bank, but still bent on trouble. It is hardly ever deterred by an economic crisis. That was true even during the Kargil war, when Pakistan's economy was reeling under sanctions after the nuclear tests. And again, when a full-fledged war was threatened by the use of Indian air power, it went running to the US to stop India. This time around, it rushed to the UAE asking it to mediate, and has offered to be part of a “neutral and transparent” investigation. This pattern is quite different from that of the Israel-Gaza wars, where both showed a certain grim logic.
Pak Army Is A Mess
Look at the present situation. Never in its history has the Pakistan army faced such travails. Imran Khan's allegations and his subsequent imprisonment, the arrest of an Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief and his subsequent court martial, the detention of senior officers, including of a Lieutenant-General and the families of senior officers, have all dented the army's image beyond imagination. Don't forget this either: late last year, Asim Munir gave himself (and other service chiefs) an extension of tenure of five years, which means he ‘retires' in 2027 instead of 2025. That could not but have ended some promising careers in the top ranks.
On another level, that the Generals were running the country - and badly - was more than evident not only in Pakistan's continuous economic woes, food shortages and its power crisis, but also in a hefty 66% rise in insurgent violence over 2023, the worst in a decade. Security forces were being killed on a daily basis. The Jaffar Express incident, which got international attention, probably put the lid on it. That the Baloch insurgency has been going on for 70 years now has been forgotten. Ever the victim, Pakistan's reaction, consistent as it is, has been to blame India.
Given all these factors, it seemed, therefore, that a reaction from Rawalpindi was inevitable. The army needed the heft and someone to blame.
Warning Signs
The warning signs were thus in the following order. In February, the media quoted sources to say that some 80-100 foreign terrorists were assembled at launch pads. Noted analyst Ayesha Siddiqa observed the same trends and warned that “militancy is coming back to Kashmir”, further quoting sources to say that militancy would be back after winters, but “at a lower scale”. Then there was the Hamas link, followed by the mystery of Asim Munir's public rant against India, declaring that Balochistan would never break away from Pakistan, that Kashmir was Pakistan's “jugular vein”, and the pushing of the two-nation theory to its limits. This was directed towards a bunch of overseas Pakistanis who roared in approval. But at the time, this author felt that added up, all this warned of impending trouble.
Does this mean that intel failed? No, because intel is granular, and it is about time and place. There was nothing to indicate that an entirely peaceful Pahalgam area would be targeted during tourist season, something Kashmiris know is the time to make their incomes, with schools closing (first in the South) and the start of the Amarnath yatra preparations and all the paraphernalia that comes with it. It was literally stocking up for prosperity. In that background, there was no indication that terrorists would be given any space at all (as of now, it does seem that they were not). The two locals who were part of the group had left Kashmir years ago. There would have been local 'overground workers', since money, something terrorists have a lot of, always talks. And here's the key: tourism cannot grow alongside hundreds of troops deployed on the ground. Picnics and dancing don't sit comfortably with armed soldiers.
Don't Give Pakistan What It Wants
So, the solution may be to work against what Pakistan wants. That is, support the Kashmiris to the maximum, by ensuring not just that tourism doesn't suffer, but also that it is boosted with special packages and subsidies, among other things. This, however, has to be preceded by strong vigilance - perhaps something like China's ‘Safe City' project, which employs facial recognition systems and extensive surveillance. Israel is a master at this.
Counter-terrorism strategies also have to build on the rage inside Kashmir. In other words, locals should be allowed to have a say in both the ‘punishment' and the solutions. Let them guide the narrative. Then, there should be a public declaration that India stands one and united in the face of terrorism, regardless of religion.
This was a pan-India attack, with its victims being from 14 different states. The response, too, has to be pan-India. Let the Indian flag fly.
(Tara Kartha was with the National Security Council Secretariat)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
