The Mahayuti has secured a landslide victory with a 3/4th majority in Maharashtra assembly polls. The trio of Eknath Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis, and Ajit Pawar, riding on the success of the Laadki Bahin Yojana, reduced the MVA to less than 50 seats, far exceeding pollsters' predictions. Ajit Pawar's NCP, which had won just 1 of the 4 seats it contested in the Lok Sabha elections, made a remarkable turnaround, winning 41 out of the 58 seats it contested.
The BJP-led Mahayuti won 235 seats, while the MVA secured 48 seats, and others took 5 seats. The Mahayuti captured 48% of the vote share, while the MVA secured 34%, and others (including allies of the two major alliances) accounted for 18%.
While Eknath Shinde performed much better in the Lok Sabha, winning 6 of the 13 one-on-one contests against Uddhav Thackeray, Ajit Pawar lost both direct contests against Sharad Pawar's NCP faction.
Ajit Pawar had been written off by many commentators and analysts, with some within the RSS/BJP leadership openly questioning the need for his inclusion in the Mahayuti, citing significant issues with vote transfer and even labelling the alliance as unnatural.
Second-Best Strike Rate
Ajit Pawar's NCP won 41 of the 58 seats it contested, with an impressive strike rate of 71%. Only the BJP outperformed this, winning 133 of the 149 seats it contested, with a strike rate of 89%. The Shiv Sena, led by Eknath Shinde, won 57 of the 81 seats it contested, achieving a strike rate of 70%. In contrast, the SHS-UBT, INC, and NCP-SP coalitions saw dismal strike rates of just 21%, 15%, and 12%, respectively, suffering drubbing in elections.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the NCP's strike rate in assembly segments had been just 25%, winning only 6 of the 24 seats it contested. This time, its strike rate soared to an astonishing 71%, a jump of 46%, the highest improvement among all parties. Conversely, the NCP-SP led by Senior Pawar, which had the highest strike rate of 55% in the general elections, experienced a dramatic drop to just 12%.
Ajit Pawar faced Sharad Pawar's NCP in 40 seats. The NCP emerged victorious in 29 of these contests, achieving a strike rate of 72.5%, higher than his state-wide average.
Ajit Pawar had the support of 75% of the party's MLAs when he made the decision to leave the MVA and join the Mahayuti. His NCP, now with the party symbol and name, is firmly on the driver's seat now.
Ajit Pawar, once thought by many analysts to be in for the toughest battle of his political career, won by a commanding margin of over 1 lakh votes in his assembly constituency.
The image makeover
Ajit Pawar's image makeover was masterminded by his strategist, Naresh Arora, who rebranded him as more accessible, humane, and approachable-always smiling, willing to listen, and emerging as a champion for women. Laadki Bahin Yojana, a scheme that benefits 2.34 crore recipients with a monthly payment of Rs. 1,500, and has been a key factor in the makeover.
The party launched a "Pink Campaign," with all campaign materials-along with Ajit Pawar's wardrobe-featuring a prominent pink hue, from giant cut-outs and hoardings to clothing. Pink, symbolizing happiness, was used strategically to connect with the female electorate.
As per sources, Ajit Pawar was advised by his strategist to make certain adjustments in his approach. Before the split, Ajit Pawar had been the party's administrator and was known for his strong ties with the party cadre and elected representatives. However, in his role as the star campaigner and vote catcher, he embraced a softer, more friendly, and positive image to better connect with the public.
He campaigned aggressively across the state, focusing on development rather than getting drawn into the legacy battle. He kept his messaging positive, even criticizing BJP leaders who made derogatory comments about Sharad Pawar
Despite the setback in the Lok Sabha elections, Ajit Pawar remained committed to NCP's core ideology. He presented himself as the torchbearer for minority rights within the Mahayuti, advocating for their interests and fighting for their rights. He allocated 10% of the party's tickets to Muslims, resulting in two Muslim MLAs for the NCP-Sana Malik and Hasan Mushrif.
Ajit Pawar played a pivotal role in securing salary increases for madrasa teachers and launching other initiatives for the Muslim community. This effort has paid off, with 22% of Muslim voters backing the Mahayuti, according to a CSDS post-poll survey. Through these actions, Ajit Pawar succeeded in softening the Mahayuti's anti-Muslim image.
The party launched a Jan Samman Yatra to showcase the development work carried out by the Mahayuti government, boosting party morale, and fostering camaraderie between BJP and Shiv Sena workers. This initiative helped Ajit Pawar establish a direct connection with voters and party workers, covering 45 seats-many of which were won by the party.
In addition, a massive door-to-door outreach campaign was carried out, reaching 18 lakh households and engaging over 70 lakh voters. The NCP was the only party to release constituency-specific manifestos, which proved to be particularly effective in the hyper-local nature of the contest.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author