The pinnacle of Joe Biden's presidency was day one in Oval Office, when he confidently declared "America is back". He had said that as America rejoined the Paris climate agreement—an optimistic promise to reclaim global leadership. The lowest point of his Presidency was October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched its brutal attack on Israel. It was a stark reminder that American influence and security assurances, once taken for granted, were no longer what they used to be. It's the journey between those two dates that has come to define the chequered legacy of the 46th President of America.
Biden's credibility has gone up in flames in West Asia and he is in danger of leaving behind a dark legacy that his successor would try to erase from the pages of history. But his failures on other issues have also been shocking.
However, let's start with his sunshine moments first.
A Hero's Welcome In Germany
Last Friday, Biden tiptoed into Germany, almost unnoticed, to receive the country's highest civilian award for his contribution to trans-Atlantic relations. The world's most powerful leader shuffled along next to German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier; their slow, tentative steps felt as though a ghostly presence was tagging along—a moment straight out of T.S. Eliot's The Waste Land: "Who is the third who always walks beside you?"
Biden's farewell visit to Germany comes with a cloud of unease looming over Europe. The spectre of Donald Trump, their ‘tormentor-in-chief' so to speak, possibly returning to power has made Berlin and Europe jittery. They remember Trump's views on NATO all too well, which had left the European members wondering whether the US was serious about protecting Europe against a potential Russian attack.
The elusive third figure in Eliot's poem could just be Europe's collective dread of a Trump redux. Steinmeier still carries the scars from those years (2016-2020), recalling a time when the US-Europe bond was fraying. "...just a handful of years ago, the distance had grown so wide that we almost lost each other," he reminisced. Thankfully, to Germany and Europe's collective relief, Biden was quick to restore Europe's faith in the trans-Atlantic alliance “literally overnight”, as the German President said.
Surely, Biden's European outreach and climate action were two of the very few successes of his presidency.
Biden, Blinken and Bibi
As Israel continues to pound Lebanon and Gaza, one thing is glaringly obvious: the US influence on Israeli decision-making has been greatly cut down since the October 7 Hamas attacks. Sure, Israel's military might squash terrorist threats for now. But lasting peace? That's unlikely and uncertain. Meanwhile, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is in West Asia again, but he, like his boss, is taken seriously neither by Benjamin aka ‘Bibi' Netanyahu nor by Arab allies. Biden has lost his credibility in the region as an honest peace broker largely due to his weak handling of Netanyahu and letting daily massacres in the region continue. If war breaks out in West Asia, Biden might just hand Kamala Harris's campaign its own little farewell party.
Trump had at least got Israel to sign the Abraham Accords Peace Agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco. These agreements aimed to normalise diplomatic relations, expand economic cooperation, and promote regional peace and stability. What does Biden have to show for? The deal with Saudi Arabia was almost ready to be signed, but the Hamas attacks pushed it back. And so far, Biden hasn't been able to persuade the warring parties to come to a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and Lebanon.
Abraham Accords, A Flawed Trump Legacy
The Abraham Accords had come as a beacon of hope for West Asia. I even remember watching an interview with American-Israeli rabbi Yaakov Israel Herzog, who had parked himself in Saudi Arabia, boldly declaring his plan to open the first Jewish community centre in Riyadh. Saudi rulers just pretended not to notice. Everyone assumed the peace deal with Israel was practically signed, sealed, and delivered. Jews visiting the Kingdom? That was almost possible, and it would have been some achievement.
But here's the thing—the Abraham Accords had overlooked the Palestinian issue. Normalising relations without even mentioning Palestinian self-determination was, in hindsight, unwise. That's a recipe for fragile peace. The real issues—borders, settlements, Jerusalem, refugees—were left out of purview. And let's not forget, the Palestinian leadership wasn't even invited to the table. A peace deal without the main player was myopic, at best.
Granted that Biden inherited a diplomatic mess and an uphill battle. He was supposed to dive into the deep end, fix the flaws in the Accords and put the Palestinian issue back on the agenda. But he didn't. The result was Hamas's deadly October attack. Now, the world has been left calling, once again, for a renewed focus on Palestinian statehood.
A Host Of Other Failures
Whoever gets the keys to the White House next will inherit the dilemma of either trying to bring order to West Asia, which could overshadow US priorities in Europe and China, or dealing with all the Biden failings simultaneously. There is no doubt that Biden's legacy in West Asia is in tatters; it carries the baggage of extreme violence, death and destruction. Thousands have died, including women and children, millions have been rendered homeless, and a big number have migrated to safer countries. The Israelis, escaping the war, have been flooding into Cyprus. Many in the region believe it will take generations for the scars to be erased. One wonders whether Biden will ever reflect on his failures once he leaves the White House.
Biden's approach to China has also faced scrutiny. His administration's efforts to establish a coalition of like-minded nations, which included India, have yielded mixed results. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) and the Quad security dialogue have been touted as key initiatives, but their effectiveness remains uncertain. China's growing economic and military influence has significant implications for global governance and regional stability.
Ukraine: Pumping In Money Without A Goal
Ukrainians are dreading Donald Trump;'s possible return to power because he has made it clear he would strike a peace deal with Russia. He is also not in favour of the US pumping in billions of dollars and sending plane-loads of weapons to Ukraine. The Ukrainians would thus like Kamala Harris as President, as they believe she will carry on defending Ukraine and continue to help it with cash and weapons.
Under Biden, Pax Americana, the era of America-led global order, has been showing clear signs of decline. From the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan to the US's impotency in West Asia, Biden's foreign policy has often been seen as reactive rather than proactive. The cowardly pullout from Kabul in 2021, which left behind chaos and emboldened the Taliban, sent a message that US military power no longer guarantees stability in the regions it occupies. This failure, followed by Washington's inconsistent handling of alliances, signalled a retreat from the role of a ‘global enforcer' that the US has played since World War II.
The China-Russia Question
Clearly, Biden's response to the rising influence of China and Russia has been less than robust, weakening American hegemony. While efforts like the Quad alliances aim to counterbalance China's assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, Beijing continues to expand its influence through economic investments, military posturing, and diplomatic and multilateral efforts such as the Belt and Road Initiative and BRICS. Simultaneously, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has drawn attention to the limits of US deterrence.
The decline of Pax Americana may not have started under Biden, but it certainly accelerated under him. Domestically, Biden's presidency has focused on economic recovery, social justice, and climate action. The American Rescue Plan and Inflation Reduction Act have helped stabilise the economy and address social issues to some extent. However, bipartisan cooperation has been more elusive than ever, and many of Biden's initiatives have faced resistance from Congress.
If Donald Trump wins on November 5, Biden's legacy could be swept into the dustbin of history. But if Kamala Harris comes out on top, she will have to work very hard to salvage it—while defining her own legacy.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author