Opinion | How Did Low Turnout Affect BJP? A Phase-Wise Analysis

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has returned to power for a record third term, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi slated to take oath on June 8. The BJP bagged 240 seats and its allies got 54 seats. The Congress, on the other hand, got 99, and its allies 133 seats. The BJP has fallen short of a majority by 32 seats and has to depend on the Janata Dal (United) and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in what can be termed as a return of the coalition era. 

The JD(U) and the TDP have bagged 28 seats between themselves - 12 and 16, respectively. They joined the NDA just around three months before the polls. Nitish had made this U-Turn after much dilly-dallying by the Congress in announcing him as convenor. The TDP, which is believed to have helped Revanth Reddy in Telangana and was keen on an alliance with the Congress, seems to have changed its mind after the Congress received a 3-0 drubbing in Hindi heartland states in December last year. Hypothetically, if these two parties had remained in the opposition bloc, the tally of the two alliances would have been at 265-260, in favour of the INDIA front. A strikingly narrow margin. 

Various Theories On Turnouts

Lower turnout was discussed heavily when in the first two phases of the election, the voting percentage declined by three to four percentage points. There was debate about which party would be hurt more by this drop, and speculation about whose supporters are not coming out to vote. In phases 3 and 4, the turnout was only marginally lower than 2019. It improved in the next two phases, before declining again in the final round. 

While there is no clear correlation between turnouts and electoral outcomes, various theories are circulating. Out of the 17 Lok Sabha elections from 1951-52 to 2019, the turnout decreased six times and increased 10 times. This was in 16 Lok Sabha elections between 1957 and 2019. Of the 10 instances where polling increased, the incumbent lost four times and won six times. Conversely, of the six instances where turnout declined, the incumbent lost four times and won twice. 

Read | Opinion: How Did Exit Polls Fail To Capture Ground Reality? A Pollster Decodes

The BJP has formed governments five times - in 1996 (for 13 days), 1998 (for 13 months), 1999, 2014, and in 2019. Except in 1999, higher turnouts were seen in the other four elections. Thus, 80% of the time the BJP has formed governments, it has been following an increased polling percentage. A decline in turnout in 2024, though it did not result in a loss for the BJP, has led to a lowered seat tally.

A comparison of the turnouts in 2019 and 2014 on 282 seats won by the BJP shows interesting trends:

• Of the 282 seats, turnout increased in 189, of which the BJP retained 172 (91%) and lost 17 
• The turnout decreased in 93 seats, of which the BJP retained 86 (92%) and lost seven 

The strike rates in 2019 on seats where turnout increased and where it declined were similar. 

A comparison of turnouts this year and in 2019 on the 302 seats won by the BJP shows interesting trends (one seat, Surat, was won unopposed by the BJP)

• Of the 302 seats, the turnout increased in 93, of which the BJP retained 59 (63%) and lost 34
• The turnout decreased in 209 seats, of which the BJP retained 150 (72%) and lost 59 

 The strike rate in 2024 on seats where turnout declined is better than on seats where turnout increased. 

The INDIA alliance started the election well this year, but the NDA gained a distinct lead during subsequent phases. Phase 5 was tied, though INDIA scored a decisive lead in Phase 7. The contest stretched into the last phase this election. 

• In Phase 1, in which the turnout declined, the NDA won 33 seats and the INDIA bloc 65. The former suffered a loss of six seats. 
• In Phase 2, in which the turnout declined, the NDA won 54 seats while the INDIA bloc got 33. The NDA recorded a gain of seven seats in this phase. 
• In Phase 3, in which the turnout declined marginally, by 0.2%, the NDA won 65 seats while the INDIA bloc got 27. The NDA faced a loss of nine seats here. 
• In Phase 4 too, in which the turnout declined only marginally, the NDA won 60 seats while the INDIA bloc got 31. The NDA's tally was similar to 2019, no gains, no losses.
• In Phase 5, in which the turnout increased, the NDA won 23 seats while the INDIA bloc got 24 seats. In all, the NDA suffered a loss of 22 seats here. 
• The turnout increased in Phase 6 too, and here the NDA won 37 seats while the INDIA block got 20. The NDA again recorded a loss of 13. 
• In the final phase, the turnout declined. The NDA won 21 seats, while the INDIA bloc got 34 seats. The NDA faced a loss of 17 seats.  

All in all, the NDA saw losses of 25 seats (on a net basis) in phases where the turnout declined, while it recorded erosion of 35 seats in phases where polling increased. A mixed bag, in a sense. However, at the national level, a lower turnout for the BJP continues to be a tricky problem, given especially the fact that of the six times it has come to power, four elections saw higher turnouts, while two saw lower. 

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author