There is a saying about trying to find a taxi when it's raining, you can be waiting for ages for one and then all of a sudden, three of them will arrive at the same time. Of late, official meetings between the governments of India and Pakistan seem to be following a similar pattern - we don't have any for the better part of 15 months, and then, all of a sudden, we have three different meetings almost back-to-back.
There was no indication of any ice breaking before the Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers found themselves in Paris attending climate talks aimed at staving off global warming. Suddenly we were treated to visuals of the two men locked in a huddle, engaged in a discussion that was anything but a simple exchange of pleasantries. As much as officials tasked with explaining the chat tried to play down thing, the pictures told their own story. This was followed soon after by the announcement that the National Security Advisors of the two countries had met in Bangkok. According to the official release, put out after the talks, the scope of this dialogue had been widened after the Ufa declaration to include Kashmir as well.
The ink on the articles written to analyse this development had barely started to dry when the next episode was announced - Sushma Swaraj was to travel to Islamabad to attend a regional conference for Afghanistan. Ostensibly a multi-lateral event, but with weighty bilateral overtones including a meeting between her and the Pakistani Prime Minister. The significant announcement from this visit was the reiteration of the intent of Prime Minister Modi to visit Pakistan in 2016 for the SAARC summit.
I don't think anyone saw the developments of Christmas 2015 coming, and those that now claim to have foreseen or influenced what happened are clearly suffering from delusions of grandeur. For a Prime Minister whose domestic agenda has been predictable, some would even whisper downright disappointing, his foreign policy has been anything but. He's a leader who has continued to surprise observers, yours truly included. He started with the invitation to the heads of government of neighbouring countries to attend his swearing-in. He trumped that with the invitation to President Obama as chief guest for Republic Day. While his engagements with countries like the US, UK and Japan have been hailed, his track record with neighbouring countries has been, at best, mixed.
The 25th of December started out as Christmas Day would, Good Governance Day having been quietly buried. Prime Minister Modi was on his way back from Moscow and was expected to make a brief stop in Kabul on the way back. Suddenly, completely out of the blue, the PM tweeted that he was going to "drop by" in Lahore on his was back from Kabul to meet Nawaz Sharif. As simple as that, no big build up, no "official sources'' suggesting what might be in the pipeline, just that tweet to turn Christmas on its head. I can well imagine newsrooms erupting, commentators and experts being roused from their afternoon slumber and everyone scrambling to make sense of what was happening.
To put some perspective on this, let's go back less than three months, 29th of September to be exact, when the two leaders were in New York for the UN General Assembly. The two Prime Ministers didn't even shake hands, much less have any sort of meeting. All we got were reports, again denied by Indian officials in spite of video images to the contrary, of the two leaders waving at each other across a room. So in under three months, we've gone from a wry wave to "Nawaz Bhai, I'm flying over your home and am going to drop by for a quick
chai pe charcha and a slice of birthday cake". That's the bit the boggles the mind and the part I'd like explained to me by the Government and the BJP - what changed in under three months? What did those of us who keenly watch Indo-Pak developments miss?
I'm a dove, or a peacenik if you prefer that term, and make no bones of that fact. I've been a strong supporter of a sustained dialogue with Pakistan covering all issues, especially Kashmir. What I don't have much of a stomach for is grand gestures that steal the headlines and a couple of news cycles, but don't translate in to anything meaningful on the ground. Unfortunately we've seen too many of those to be anything but disappointed by them. What this relationship needs is a sustained dialogue, with small steps taken to achieve concrete results that can all add up to build confidence in the process, a process that must ultimately resolve the Kashmir issue. That would require maturity, sagacity and a statesman-like approach, often shunning the headlines, so that we can get things done without the pressure of pandering to domestic constituencies. It would also require engagement with Pakistan at various levels of the government and cutting across ministries to build the required depth and scope in the relationship to rebuild confidence. I think it's fair to say that it would help to take the opposition on board and brief them about what is happening so that they can be made part of the process. It doesn't help to have the opposition undermining the government's efforts in a very public way, but if they aren't taken on board, then it's bound to be the natural reaction of the opposition leadership. Perhaps another round of
chai, this time in Delhi with the Congress leadership wouldn't be a bad idea. Certain aspects of the Indo-Pak relationship need to be taken out of the arena of domestic political squabbles.
I'm not a believer in the tooth fairy and I stopped believing in Father Christmas a very long time ago so no, I don't believe the Lahore visit was a spur of the moment decision. It would have taken some amount of planning to put the logistics into place, so I can only hope that the next few steps have been thought through as well. What next? We've had the grand gesture and the big photo op so, what happens next? Have we built in the necessary safeguards to insulate this process from something like a terror strike in J&K or a state election defeat? Is there an end goal we have in mind that we are working towards? What happens when the
chai runs cold and the really ticklish issues have to come up for discussion? I hope someone in the corridors of power has the answers to these questions, because if they don't then all we will have at the end of the day is a lot of egg, or would you prefer birthday cake, on a lot of faces, and a massive pile of disappointment. On the other hand, if someone has through the this one through, then we may be on to something here. I for one will be keenly watching what the new year has in store on this front, so on that note here's wishing you all a happy and peaceful 2016.
(Omar Abdullah is National Conference leader and former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir)Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of NDTV and NDTV does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.