While Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar seeks a fifth term, question marks remain over the future of the Janata Dal (United) (JD-U). Nitish faces the toughest political battle of his life. He has to deftly handle relationships with a stronger Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state, win elections due in Bihar in six months, and, at the same time, ensure a bright future for his party.
'Who after Nitish'? The chorus around this question is growing in Bihar and the JD(U)'s circles. Will Nitish Kumar's son Nishant formally join politics and be named as his successor? Will the JD(U) disintegrate after the Bihar elections? Will it formally merge with the BJP? Or, will JD(U) leaders join the BJP, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and other parties?
It's important to note that the JD(U) was formed by the members of the erstwhile Janata Dal in Bihar. Also, many of the RJD's leaders joined the JD(U) in the past as their party weakened. It's a common joke in Bihar that the membership of the two parties is complementary, with easy to and fro movement.
Nitish Is JD(U)
Nitish is a good example of personality cults in Indian politics: he is JD(U), and JD(U) is him. Over the years, he has managed to crush all competition within the party. Years ago, he had propped Sharad Yadav against George Fernandes, and then dumped Yadav when he tried to emerge as a parallel power centre.
Nitish's earlier attempts to have a succession plan have failed. He fell out with political strategist Prashant Kishor, whom he had even made the party's Vice-President at one point, and RCP Singh, who was once seen as Nitish's number-two in the party. It also doesn't help that his close confidantes, namely, Lallan Singh, Ashok Chaudhary and Sanjay Jha, lack charisma and statewide appeal.
Most regional parties in India are family-controlled. This acts as a glue and keeps various factions together. Parties that do not have a family at the helm or a clear succession plan are today facing existential crises, like Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha, Jayalalitha's All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), etc.
An Awkward Question About Nishant
Nitish, now in the last leg of his career, is aware that the party needs a successor to survive after him. There is a strong buzz that his son Nishant is likely to formally join politics and even contest elections. But Nishant so far hasn't been much of a public figure. His first major appearance was on January 8, when he visited his native village, Kalyan Bigha, with his father to pay tribute to freedom fighters.
In recent months, Nishant has been seen attending party meetings and social gatherings, including Holi celebrations, even giving bytes to the media. He has strongly suggested that the NDA should name his father as its chief ministerial face. But he has displayed a visible disinclination towards politics in the past. Nitish himself has long opposed dynastic politics, following the example of his mentor, Karpoori Thakur, who kept his family away from politics. His criticism of Lalu Yadav for promoting family members in politics is well-known. So, this is not going to be an easy decision for Nitish either.
If Nishant is announced as a successor, he could face opposition from senior leaders in the party. The JD(U) could implode and some leaders may rebel, turning towards BJP, RJD, or even the Congress.
Even so, this seems like the most viable option for the party.
No One Want A Rudderless Ship
If Nishant is not named as a successor, a battle could break out amongst seniors like Lallan Singh, Ashok Chaudhary or Sanjay Jha for the party's control. And the BJP, sensing an opportunity, might push for a merger to strengthen its base in the state. Some MLAs could still defect to other parties, but the party might survive as an entity at least with Nishant at the helm.
Timing is crucial. A transition is easier when a party is in power, as was the case with the Samajwadi Party's (SP) Akhilesh Yadav and with Lalu's son, Tejashwi Yadav. In such cases, a party has the luxury of quelling discontent by offering cabinet positions to disgruntled leaders. Mulayam Singh Yadav had made Akhilesh the chief minister after his party's grand victory in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh elections. Similarly, Lalu Yadav announced Tejashwi as his Deputy Chief Minister after the Mahagathbandhan won the 2015 elections in Bihar. In contrast, Sonia Gandhi transferred the baton to Rahul in 2017, when the Congress was out of power; the move had ended up irking a host of leaders, particularly the ‘G-23' and the old guard.
Therefore, if Nishant has to enter politics, this is the right time. It would signal to senior leaders who the boss is. The fact that the party is in power will also help Nitish crush a possible rebellion using a carrot-and-stick policy. Sure, Nishant may face challenges as he doesn't have political experience, but the move could prevent an existential implosion within the JD(U) after Nitish calls it a day.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
