Yet another former ally, Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in Andhra Pradesh, has made a gharwapasi to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance after a gap of six years. The TDP, the BJP and Pawan Kalyan's Jana Sena have made a joint statement expressing their intention of contesting the 2024 general elections and simultaneous assembly polls together. Naidu's return provides a fillip to the BJP's 'Mission 400' and its efforts to expand its footprint in Southern India.
Old Friends
The TDP and the BJP share an old relationship. The party first joined the NDA in 1996 but left after the 2004 polls. It returned to the fold almost a decade later for the 2014 general elections, before parting ways in 2018 again over the issue of grant of special status to Andhra Pradesh after the bifurcation of Telangana. The latest return marks the TDP's third one after a bitter break-up in the past - politics, after all, is an art of forgetting and forgiving. It also joins the ranks of Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United) (JD-U) and Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in returning to the NDA.
Naidu has the chief minister of Andhra Pradesh thrice - twice in united Andhra and once after its bifurcation. On September 1, 1995, he was sworn in as the chief minister following a successful coup against the leadership of N.T. Rama Rao. Thereafter, the TDP and the BJP had fought the 1999 and 2014 elections together and formed a coalition government in the state.
Whenever Naidu has won elections in the state, it has been in alliance with the BJP. The BJP, thus, is sort of a good omen for the party, notwithstanding the fact that the alliance did lose badly in 2004 to Congress.
A Pragmatic Shift Away From INDIA
It was true that Naidu until a few months back had been exploring an alliance with the Congress and was apparently keen to join the INDIA bloc. According to reports, he had even backed Revanth Reddy's campaign in Telangana. However, the Congress's shock loss in three Hindi heartland states last year seems to have changed his mind.
Vote Share in Andhra Pradesh Elections
PARTY | 1999 | 2004 | 2009 | 2014 | 2019 |
Congress | 40.6% | 38.6% | 36.6% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
TDP | 43.9% | 37.6% | 28.1% | 44.9% | 39.7% |
BJP | 3.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 5.6% |
YSRCP | NA | NA | NA | 44.6% | 50.6% |
Note: TDP fought in alliance with the BJP in 1999, 2004 and 2014 |
BJP's 'Problem Of Plenty' In Andhra
For the BJP, the TDP's entry, in a way, makes up for the loss of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in Tamil Nadu. It also, to some extent, neutralises the North-South divide narrative of the Opposition, which has been playing up the BJP's relatively thinner popularity South of Vindhyas, except in the state of Karnataka.
The BJP had been facing a problem of plenty in Andhra Pradesh. After the TDP's exit in 2018, it had found a new partner in Jagan Reddy's Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP). The party, deemed the 'real Congress' in Andhra (as the numbers exhibit), has backed the BJP on important and even contentious bills in Parliament, especially in the Rajya Sabha, where the BJP lacked a majority.
Why An Alliance With YSRCP Couldn't Be
However, an alliance with the YSRCP could not materialise due to fears of loss of the support of minorities, who account for 11% of the state's population. As many as 54% of them had backed the YSRCP in the 2019 general elections. With Jagan's sister Sharmila joining the Congress in the state, the YSRCP's entry into the NDA could have led to a shift of the minority vote towards the Congress. Jagan, who is already fighting a tough battle in his backyard, didn't want to take that risk.
The BJP still needed an official partnership to shore up its numbers in the general elections, and that is perhaps the reason it decided to strike an alliance with the TDP-despite Naidu having called Prime Minister Narendra Modi a terrorist in 2019.
BJP Takes A Long View
The BJP also sees an opportunity to grow in Andhra with this move. Naidu is 73, and this could be his last election. As with many regional parties, observers feel his son Lokesh lacks the charisma to lead after Naidu hangs up his boots. Just like in Odisha (post-Naveen era) and Bihar (post-Nitish era), the BJP seems to have a long-term plan for Andhra too.
Andhra faces simultaneous polls like Odisha, and the NDA's success in the Lok Sabha elections depends on how the TDP performs in the assembly polls. The state is witnessing a tight battle currently as Jagan turns his focus on the laabharthi (beneficiary) factor and young faces to counter anti-incumbency.
Naidu, on the other hand, is relying on the exodus of leaders from Jagan's camp, the 'sympathy factor' after his arrest last year, the addition of the Kapu samaj votes due to the Pawan Kalyan factor, and Jagan's failure at achieving a special category status for Andhra Pradesh. Ironically, the last bit was the same weapon Jagan had to unseat Naidu in 2019.
Naidu In A Tight Spot
If the TDP does well, it will add a few seats to the NDA's kitty and help its Mission 400. Its failure to do so could lead to an existential crisis for the party and open up a gap-which, party strategists hope, the BJP would be able to fill.
For Naidu, this is a do-or-die battle and he doesn't want to leave anything to chance. With BJP on its side, the TDP hopes to give a tough fight to the formidable Jagan.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.