Opinion: In Opposition's Unity Fumble, Maharashtra, Bihar Are Exhibit A

Five years ago, around this time, the UPA or United Progressive Alliance was still alive and possible permutations and combinations of opposition unity were discussed on various forums. The question central to their theme of uprooting Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling BJP was, what would happen in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP had swept the 2014 Lok Sabha election by winning 73 of 80 seats.

Almost everyone in the anti-Modi grouping hoped against hope - if only Mayawati's Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) and Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party could come together, they thought, it would be endgame for Modi. Their wishes came true and more; not just Samajwadi Party and BSP but Ajit Singh's RLD joined that Gathbandhan (grand coalition). The Congress was the hidden partner, as both SP and BSP announced they wouldn't put up any candidate in Amethi and Raebareli against Rahul Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi. The Congress was to return the favour in some seats.

The protagonists and supporters of that Gathbandhan, as also of the UPA, dug up an old slogan of the 1990s, "Mile Mulayam Kanshi Ram Hawa Me Udd Gaye Jai Shri Ram (if Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kashi Ram join hands, they can beat Jai Shri Ram)" to try and score a psychological victory over the BJP and its support base. Of course, none really cared to tell the full story of how the two parties faired in the subsequent assembly elections.

Similarly in Karnataka, the Congress and Janata Dal (Secular), which had formed a government together, tied up for the parliamentary polls.

Both formidable opposition combos - in India's most populous state and in the only southern state where the BJP had a strong presence. 

Amit Shah, the then BJP president, had then famously said his party was fighting for over 50 per cent votes in each constituency and had expressed confidence in victory.

We know what happened in 2019. In UP, the BJP won 62 seats, and two more by its ally; Rahul Gandhi suffered a humiliating defeat in his constituency Amethi and Sonia Gandhi managed to win, with a lesser margin. In Karnataka, the BJP won 25 of 28 seats.

This time around, no one is talking about the prospects of opposition alliances in UP, the state which sends over a seventh of the total MPs to Lok Sabha. The Congress's first family is showing no signs of any attempt to reclaim Amethi. There is no signal yet of whether Sonia Gandhi will contest from Raebareli or pass on the baton to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra. They know it won't be easy.

There is no talk even about Bengal, which has the third largest (42) seats in Lok Sabha. The BJP put up an impressive show in 2019 and emerged as the opposition in the Bengal assembly. Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress are the ones talking the most, but the chorus of the BJP being a non-entity - as was said often in the run-up to 2014 - is missing.

Instead, for the 2024 elections, the spotlight is on Maharashtra and Bihar, the second and fourth largest in terms of number of seats (48 and 40).

This is not to say that elections in other states are not as important, for every single seat counts. But there is no disputing the fact that in terms of wider popular attention, narrative formation and media hype, some states grab more prominence than the others.

In the 2019 election, the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance won 41 of 48 seats in a repeat of the 2014 results. In Bihar, the BJP, along with its ally Janata Dal (United) and Lok Janshakti Party, won 39 of 40 seats. Lalu Yadav's party RJD was wiped out and the Congress could manage only one seat.

With the RJD-JD(U)-Congress, along with three other parties, coming together, the opposition has, at least on paper, a very formidable alliance against the BJP and its prospective allies. 

In Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Agadi coalition against the BJP also seemed to be rock solid for 2024.

It is worth noting that elections, like any other fight, are fought on a twin strategy - one, a psychological war against the opponent before and during the actual fight and second, ground realities. It has been repeatedly proved that ground realities are entirely different from what leaders of rival political formations try to project. Remember Nitish Kumar's famed statement of 2014 on the prospects of BJP's Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi? 'Blower ki Hawa', he sneered. In fact, Nitish Kumar was swept away in that election by a Modi gust.

The speed at which realities have shifted in the past year, to the benefit of the BJP and to the detriment of the opposition coalition, has stunned everyone. First, it was the Eknath Shinde-led rebellion that not only ousted the Maha Vikas Aghadi from power but also virtually crippled Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena. Then it was the turn of NCP supremo and the so-called Chanakya of politics, Sharad Pawar, to be thwacked by an identical coup. His nephew Ajit Pawar and close associates Praful Patel and Chhagan Bhujbal led a revolt against his daughter Supriya Sule becoming their ultimate Boss. Just how much appetite Pawar has left to rebuild his party, and take on Modi, is anybody's guess.

Nitish Kumar had, while campaigning for the 2020 Bihar election, declared that it would be his last election. He tried to play the emotional card but people didn't buy it, and his JD(U) was reduced to party number three in the assembly. It's a different matter that the BJP still made him Chief Minister and he continues to be the same, with the support of the RJD and the Congress. The question is - will the people of Bihar, with Nitish Kumar's credibility in tatters, vote for an opposition coalition to make him Prime Minister of India? That too when Nitish's party, in a seven-party coalition, wouldn't get more than 14 or 15 seats to fight.

But then, as of now, Maharashtra and Bihar are getting all the attention. Which explains why Union Minister Nityanand Rai meeting with Chirag Paswan was such big news.

(Sanjay Singh is a senior journalist based in Delhi)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.