Almost a year ago, political epitaphs of Uddhav Thackeray were being written. There were multiple reasons for this. A day after the party's 56th Foundation Day on June 19, Eknath Shinde, now Chief Minister, split the party, exiting with a group of legislators. At the time, Uddhav Thackeray did not know how many were deserting his ship. Many concluded that Uddhav Thackeray had taken the veil off the Thackeray mystique that Balasaheb wrapped himself in by personally eschewing power.
Barely 10 days later, on June 29, Thackeray sensed defeat in the number game. He opted for the moral high ground and submitted his resignation as chief minister. Ethical behaviour is not always rewarded in Indian politics. This again became unambiguously evident in May this year, when the Supreme Court ruled that although (then) Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari erred by calling a floor test, Uddhav Thackeray could not be reinstated because he quit before going through the test.
The verdict, however, provided him a platform from where a campaign could be launched to emerge as the sole inheritor of his father's legacy and the party. The judgment has the potential to benefit him in the long run, more than if he had failed to prove his majority in the House and was thereafter reinstated by the Supreme Court.
In that situation, Uddhav Thackeray would have been seen as a lame duck Chief Minister, only to be voted out whenever the opportunity arose, or to lose his moral pre-eminence by readmitting the 'renegade' MLAs.
Time is short for both Shiv Sena factions as the next election is due months after the Lok Sabha polls. It could even be held earlier if Shinde, on the BJP's advice or pressure, advances assembly elections and holds the two simultaneously to neutralise negative sentiment against the state government and the Election Commission-designated 'real' Shiv Seva.
Despite public sympathy that the Supreme Court judgment generated for him, Uddhav Thackeray still has to sweat it out to convert this into electoral advantage. He has made a start in this direction. To understand why, one has to comprehend the symbolism of events and venues - so intrinsic to Indian politics.
Formed on June 19, 1966, the Shiv Sena held its first-ever public meeting on the day of Dusshera that year - October 30 at Shivaji Park at Dadar. The meeting became an annual event, as did the party's Foundation Day function. The Dadar show of strength was the second political mega-event on the day Hindus celebrate as the victory of good over evil.
The other was the Vijay Dashami meeting and the address of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS)'s Sarsanghchalak, held since 1926. Post 1990s, after the Sena's political clout grew, its Dusshera meet became a keenly tracked event of the state's political calendar.
Since 1966, the Shiv Sena had held its two events at the same venues - Shivaji Park and the iconic Shanmukhananda Hall. Last year, the two factions locked horns over their first show of strength on Dussehra day.
In the tussle, despite the powers at his command as Chief Minister, Eknath Shinde failed to deny Uddhav Thackeray the use of Shivaji Park. The Bombay High Court's ruling was based on grounds of maintaining a half-century-old tradition, implying that Uddhav Thackeray's jamboree was the original one while the Shinde faction had to stage their show at the Bandra Reclamation grounds.
Again, Uddhav Thackeray managed to secure the traditional venue, leaving the Shinde-led Shiv Sena to hold their 'foundation day' not just at a new venue, but also at a place used for weddings in a western suburb of Mumbai.
The Shiv Sena-BJP alliance was the saffron party's oldest political partnership and over time it cultivated an electoral constituency which despite disparateness was also united in support for identity-based politics. This politics became the polarising pole by the late 1990s, by when the BJP had fulfilled the claim made by LK Advani that the party was the "government-in-waiting."
Uddhav Thackeray's decision after the 2019 assembly polls to break ranks with the BJP and form a coalition government with former adversaries Congress and NCP also resulted in the break-up of sorts in this constituency backing identity-based politics.
The BJP's efforts to convince this section of the electorate that Uddhav Thackeray strayed from the path of Hindutva, however, did not make significant headway, even after his visible 'secularisation'. That was when BJP leaders encouraged the split in the Sena and assisted the process.
This now raises apprehensions of a three-way split in this constituency, as the traditional supporters of the Shiv Sena (UBT) do not appear to have deserted it en bloc for the 'official' Shiv Sena. Furthermore, Uddhav Thackeray wanted to split ranks with the BJP because after the rise of the Modi-Shah political duopoly, the party wanted to be the 'leader' of the alliance, in the Lok Sabha polls as well as the assembly polls.
Thackeray realised that the BJP had transited to having a purely transactional relationship with allies, as against the previous approach of ideological cohesion and personal rapport between top leaders.
The recent row over Shinde's initial decision to leave out Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis' photo from a Sena advertisement that used Shinde's picture alongside Narendra Modi's, is reflective of the Chief Minister's refusal to quietly accept being the junior partner.
Bal Thackeray traditionally limited himself to organisational objectives in his Foundation Day speeches, while political rhetoric and demagoguery was in full display at the public maidan - Shivaji Park.
Uddhav Thackeray however was wholly polemical in his address this year. Significantly, his acerbic broadsides were directed mainly at Modi, that too for dithering on core Hindutva issues, specifically in Kashmir and Manipur.
Thackeray clearly attempted to turn the BJP charge that he had betrayed Hindutva causes on its head. Some of his accusations may discomfit his non-BJP friends and allies, but that is not of relevance in his grapple within the old constituency.
Very consciously, Uddhav Thackeray spoke over the head for Shinde to convey his non-existence insofar as the Shiv Sena (UBT) was concerned. He further criticised one of the core coinages of the BJP - double-engine sarkar. Thackeray accused the party of only releasing steam in the air, showing that none of his anger at the BJP had reduced.
Thackeray's reference to deposed Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi can certainly be deemed particularly offensive, but it underscored his animosity towards Modi and his strategy to project himself and his faction as the real Sena.
In contrast, Shinde made numerous references and critical remarks directed at Uddhav Thackeray and his son, Aditya. This indicates his realisation that survival in politics essentially depends on emerging as the only custodian of the united Sena. Shinde can succeed only if he reduces the Thackeray family to nothing more than a political stub.
This however, is a tall order. It is true that there has been a moderation in the Sena's stance under Uddhav Thackeray on certain issues of Marathi sub-national identity and Hindutva, especially the party's old anti-minorityism.
Yet, the BJP's image of inherently becoming a 'centralising' party, as against Modi's pledge of cooperative federalism, keeps the traditional Marathi Manoos wary and prevents it from usurping the Sena's support base.
It helps Uddhav Thackeray that his position remains unchallenged in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) so far. But, recent developments in the NCP and Sharad Pawar's family could alter equations. Maharashtra's politics is witnessing a period of churn and only the most astute will emerge stronger. Uddhav Thackeray has a challenge on hand.
(The writer is an NCR-based author and journalist. His latest book is 'The Demolition and the Verdict: Ayodhya and the Project to Reconfigure India'. He has also written 'The RSS: Icons of the Indian Right' and 'Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times'.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.