Is the INDIA bloc a victim of the crabs-in-a-bucket mentality, that is, a mindset in which individuals prevent others from advancing? Folk wisdom holds that in an open bucket, no crab escapes because others pull it back down.
The idea may seem unusual, but the way India's opposition partners are undercutting each other is not very different from this. Formed after extensive deliberation to challenge a resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the bloc now appears more preoccupied with internal conflicts than with its stated goal. This discord is evident in state elections, where members often work at cross purposes.
The Debacle In Delhi
A case in point is the recent Delhi elections, where most non-Congress INDIA allies backed Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Some even campaigned for it, leaving the Congress—attempting to regain relevance in the national capital—isolated.
Additionally, how does one interpret Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's aggressive efforts to encroach upon the vote banks of his allies? A recent example is the caste census conducted in Congress-ruled Telangana, following which Gandhi proposed a specific percentage of reservations for backward communities in the state. Gandhi also championed a caste-based census at the national level, arguing that it would reveal the extent to which weaker sections are integrated into the power structure and whether they participate effectively.
Uneasy Overlaps
Dalits, tribals, and OBCs currently serve as the electoral base for several Congress allies within the INDIA bloc. As a result, Gandhi's rhetoric is bound to create unease among them. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), for instance, has long relied on the MY (Muslim-Yadav) factor and seeks to expand its influence. Similarly, Akhilesh Yadav's Samajwadi Party (SP) advocates for the PDA (Pichada, Dalit, and Alpasankhyak) vote. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) emphasises its tribal identity, while the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), rooted in the Dravidian movement, takes pride in securing higher reservations for backward communities in Tamil Nadu.
An Idea That Couldn't Be
Gandhi's scathing attack on AAP leader and former Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal during the Delhi campaign—criticising him for constructing a “Sheesh Mahal” and accusing former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia of orchestrating the controversial liquor scam—was no off-the-cuff remark. Observers see it as a message to allies who have undermined Congress while benefiting from its setbacks. The message is that the party's patience is wearing thin.
Despite their professed commitment to defeating the BJP, INDIA bloc members are, in practice, weakening each other. The growing internal strife is turning the alliance into a non-starter. As long as internal rivalries overshadow collective strategy, the INDIA bloc risks being little more than an idea on paper—held back, much like crabs in a bucket.
Battle Of The Insecure
The INDIA alliance has seen multiple plots and subplots, driven by contradictions within the grouping as regional parties clash with the grand old party's interests. Parties like the Samajwadi Party, the RJD, the JMM, and Sharad Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) do not want the Congress to gain strength in their respective states—Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra—because their own growth depends on encroaching upon the Congress's political space. However, the BJP's juggernaut has made them insecure to the extent that they recognise the need for an opposition coalition, lest they be overrun.
The AAP and its leader, Arvind Kejriwal, present a different challenge. Kejriwal has harboured prime ministerial ambitions since founding his party 13 years ago, making him uncomfortable in any coalition where he is not the central figure.
Meanwhile, the Congress, struggling to regroup after three consecutive Lok Sabha election defeats, is finding it difficult to earn the confidence of its INDIA bloc partners, despite being the principal opposition party in Parliament. Its predicament is complex: in the battle of “BJP Hatao, Desh Bachao” (remove the BJP, save India), it cannot ignore or forgive the past actions of regional allies in the bloc, but it also cannot defeat the BJP alone.
A Lost Opportunity
The rise of Narendra Modi at the national level, coupled with the relentless expansion of the BJP under him and Home Minister Amit Shah, has presented new challenges for the ruling party's detractors. Modi is skilfully exploiting internal contradictions and personality clashes within the INDIA bloc. The once-powerful Janata Parivar is now limited to select districts in Bihar, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh. Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu, once a key figure in third-front politics and a kingmaker at the national level, appears to have fully aligned with the BJP.
In Uttar Pradesh, Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has become largely inactive, while the futures of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Odisha and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) in Punjab remain uncertain. The Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) have already faded into irrelevance in Haryana and Uttar Pradesh, while the YSR Congress Party and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) are slowly getting marginalised.
The INDIA bloc had the opportunity to expand its influence by bringing some of these parties into its fold. Instead, it is shrinking due to internal contradictions. Is this why the BJP has managed to bulldoze the opposition in recent elections?
(Sunil Gatade is a former associate editor with PTI. Venkatesh Kesari was an assistant editor with The Asian Age.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
