Opinion | India Can't Wish Away The Growing Russia-China Bonhomie

As the world order continues to evolve, key players are reconfiguring their policies as a response. The West is being challenged internally as domestic aspirations change under the onslaught of global forces, even as the global balance of power remains in a state of flux. Though China is viewed by the West and the US in particular as the most significant long-term challenge, the Ukraine war has ensured that most of the Western efforts and resources are now directed at managing a crisis on the European periphery. Russia has once again bounced back as a serious threat in the consciousness of European policy elites.

With the West taking on Russia and China almost simultaneously, the relationship between Beijing and Moscow has also undergone a slow, but steady, transformation. This was aptly reflected in the 7,000-word joint statement that was issued during Russian President Vladimir Putin's two-day visit to China last week, which underlined that "Russian-Chinese relations stand the test of rapid changes in the world, demonstrating strength and stability, and are experiencing the best period in their history". The symbolism of Putin choosing China for his first overseas trip since starting a new term as Russia's president earlier this month was directed as much at Beijing - on whom Moscow's reliance has grown since the Ukraine crisis - as at the West, where this growing alignment is being viewed as a serious threat.

The 'No Limits' Partnership

This visit came days after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned China publicly of its continued collusion with Russia during his own visit to Beijing. He had expressed concerns regarding China's support for Russia's defence industrial base and emphasised that the US would impose additional measures beyond the current sanctions on over 100 Chinese entities and individuals if this support persisted. Chinese assistance is seen as a key factor in Western capitals facilitating Russia's increased production of tanks, munitions, and armoured vehicles, thereby enabling its continued and increasingly successful aggression against Ukraine.

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Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine just weeks after Putin and Xi Jinping proclaimed a "no limits" partnership during the Winter Olympics in Beijing. China, for its part, has consistently claimed neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, positioning itself as a potential peace broker in the conflict even as the war has allowed it to bolster its economic, strategic, and diplomatic ties with Russia. During Putin's visit last week, Beijing and Moscow vowed to "deepen" military "trust and cooperation" with a resolution to increase joint exercises and combat training, conduct regular joint sea and air patrols, and enhance their "capabilities and level of joint response to challenges and threats". Putin's delegation included key security and defence officials, which underscored the growing military alignment between the two sides.

China Is In The Driving Seat

Despite challenges, the relationship between Russia and China has undergone significant evolution in terms of cooperation and strategic alignment since the onset of the Ukraine war. The "no-limits" partnership declaration underscored their mutual desire to counterbalance Western influence, particularly that of the US. In the wake of the war, despite China claiming neutrality, trade between the two countries has surged, with the country becoming a crucial market for Russian energy exports amidst Western sanctions. Military and defence ties have continued to grow as well.

But this is a relationship now in which China is in the driving seat. The protracted war in Ukraine has imposed serious costs on Russia and has revealed the weaknesses in its military and economy. While the Russian economy is now cut off from the West, China is seeking a rebalancing as its own economy faces negative headwinds. Putin is seeking Chinese help in financing a war that has gone on for longer than he had anticipated at the beginning. And he was effusive in his praises, describing his relationship with Xi as "as close as brothers" and China's economy as "developing in leaps and bounds, at a fast pace".

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Xi Jinping was more circumspect in his remarks, and there were no big deals that were signed during the visit. It was the pomp and circumstance around the visit that was meant to convey the defiance of Beijing, which is willing to embrace, though cautiously, a leader who is a virtual pariah in the West. The partnership, aimed at reshaping the global order, is thus driven by shared geopolitical interests. This evolving relationship continues to have significant implications for international politics, particularly in the context of their collective stance against Western policies.

A Tricky Position For India

For New Delhi, managing this Russia-China axis will be the most significant foreign policy challenge in the coming years. It alters India's strategic outlook in fundamental ways. Given India's continuing reliance on Russian military hardware, closer Sino-Russian ties might influence the terms and conditions of these transactions, potentially limiting India's access to advanced technologies or altering the balance of military support. Also, as Russia pivots towards China for energy exports, India might face increased competition for Russian oil and gas, affecting prices and supply stability.

Additionally, a strengthened Sino-Russian economic collaboration might sideline India in regional infrastructure projects and trade routes. Closer China-Russia collaboration on the global stage also reduces Indian influence in regional fora like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS. New Delhi's ability to navigate a seemingly multipolar world will be tested as a result of this emerging configuration, necessitating a careful recalibration of its foreign policy to maintain a balance between major powers while simultaneously safeguarding its national interests.

[Harsh V. Pant is a Professor of International Relations at King's College London. His most recent books include 'India and the Gulf: Theoretical Perspectives and Policy Shifts' (Cambridge University Press) and 'Politics and Geopolitics: Decoding India's Neighbourhood Challenge' (Rupa)]

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author