(This is the second article in a two-part series on the US-China semiconductor battle, and where India stands in it. Here is the first part)
When Chandrayaan 3 landed on the moon on August 23 last year, there was one place in Mohali that was particularly jubilant: the government-run Semiconductor Laboratory (SCL). It was a personal win for SCL's engineers, the unsung heroes who for months worked on producing a wide variety of semiconductors critical for controlling and commanding the mission. The spacecraft used chips to enable communication with Earth and navigate its way to the landing destination, using sensors and cameras to transmit data and messages.
Mohali's SCL is India's only well-known chip-making foundry. It began production in 1984, three years before the world's biggest semiconductor manufacturing company, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), was founded.
Today, however, while TSMC produces 90% of the world's most sophisticated and advanced semiconductors or microchips, churning out the most valued 5-nanometer (nm) chips in size, SCL can make only legacy chips of 100 nm and above, which are obviously many generations old. TSMC's annual turnover exceeded $70 billion last year, far more than the SCL's meagre $5 million. And while TSMC's clients are some of the world's leading tech firms, such as Apple, AMD and Nvidia, among SCL's top clients is just ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation). TSMC's factories are state-of-the-art; SCL is in dire need of modernisation and upgradation.
India's Tough Luck
SCL could have been TSMC's largest rival if it were not for one very unfortunate incident, which pushed India back to the semiconductor dark ages. On February 27, 1989, a mysterious fire broke out in the plant, destroying most of the facilities. To date, no one knows if it was an act of sabotage or an accident. The factory later rose from the ashes, but by then, it was left far behind in the race.
Dan Hutcheson of Canada's TechInsights company, one of the industry's global voices, surprised me when he said he had been monitoring the Indian chip industry since the 1970s. "I have seen India strive for this industry my entire career. There have been only failures. It is important for India to be successful now." Dan is not wrong, as India's semiconductor history is made up of a series of broken dreams and unfulfilled promises. Several multinational companies tried their luck in setting up chip production projects, but they did not materialise for various reasons.
Micron Project, A Sign Of Good Things To Come
It took India over three decades after the 1989 tragedy to see a positive development in its semiconductor journey. In August last year, a groundbreaking ceremony was held in Sanand, Gujarat, for Micron Technology's state-of-the-art semiconductor assembly, testing, and packaging facility. Its bosses claim the facility will be operational early next year. The plant will be completed in two phases at a cost of $2.75 billion – $825 million being invested by Micron, and the rest by the Centre and the Gujarat government.
The Micron project appears to be the beginning of the country's bright chip future. Since the groundbreaking ceremony last year, four new projects have been announced, the latest on Monday when the government said it cleared a proposal of Kaynes Semicon to set up a semiconductor unit in Sanand. All the new units, except Tata Electronics' fab unit in Dholera in Gujarat are testing and packaging units. Taiwain's Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) and Tata Electronics announced in February this year that they will set up a fabrication unit in Dholera. I am sure the government will be more keen to see the progress of this project because it's India's first fab unit in the private sector. Neither company in their press statements have given a completion date or the costs involved but according to media reports, the total project will cost Rs 91,000 crore.
India have witnessed several false dawns in the last few decades, but now things appear to be changing, and at a fast speed. There was a time when India could not even dream of producing sophisticated smartphones. That was a domain exclusively captured by China. Today, India is a manufacturing hub for iPhones and other smartphone brands. Citing this success story, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said last year, “We have successfully made India a manufacturing hub for mobile phones over the last decade. Now, our next goal is to position the country as a leader in semiconductor manufacturing.”
India Is Established In Just One Segment
A semiconductor manufacturing ecosystem requires infrastructure for designing, fabrication, research, testing, and packaging. Besides, it needs sophisticated tools, minerals, and gases to make chips. While India severely lacks large-scale semiconductor fabrication facilities, it has built a robust ecosystem for chip design and related services. Major global semiconductor companies such as Intel, Qualcomm, Texas Instruments, NVIDIA, AMD and Broadcom have established significant design and R&D centres in India. Indian engineers contribute to the design of the most complex chips used in cutting-edge technologies, from artificial intelligence to 5G networks. Companies like Wipro, Tata Elxsi, and HCL Technologies also provide outsourced semiconductor design services, catering to global clients.
"Learn To Walk Before You Can Run"
Now, the Modi government wants India to become a fabrication, R&D, testing, and packaging hub. A tall order indeed, considering India is only at the beginning of the chip race — but not an impossible one. I have spoken to several industry experts worldwide over the last two years, and they believe India can become a semiconductor hub and a global player in 10-20 years if it stays as focused, patient, and committed as the Modi government appears to be today.
To put India's efforts in perspective, we ought to remember that it took semiconductor superpowers Taiwan and South Korea decades to reach where they are in the race today. "Realistically, it'll take 10 to 20 years, assuming it is well-executed. You have to learn to walk before you can run. That's the important thing – to make sure the Micron project is successful," says Hutcheson, who calls the Micron packaging project "a great baby step”. To be sure, South Korea, Taiwan, and China all started with packaging units.
India's Challenges
Chip fabrication, which allows for the production of 5 nm or even 2 nm microchips, is widely believed to be the key to the success of a semiconductor mission. A host of things are needed before manufacturing can start 10-15 years later. This is not a simple industry; it requires a lot of work and high-end equipment and materials.
1. Investment
According to the Semiconductor Industry Association estimates, a state-of-the-art manufacturing factory takes a minimum of 10 years to produce chips. The initial capital investment and operating costs can run up to anywhere between $10 billion and $40 billion. If India dreams of being a chi hub, it will have to invest hugely in the sector in the next 10-15 years. China has been doing just that, pouring billions of dollars into becoming self-reliant in semiconductor manufacturing. The US has pumped in over $100 billion in its own industry since 2022. Against these stark figures, India has managed to inject just about $15 billion into its semiconductor project.
What India badly needs is private investors and global players.
2. Gases and Mineral Shortages
Semiconductor chip manufacturing essentially uses more than 150 types of chemicals and over 30 types of gases and minerals. At present, all these are available only in a few countries. The challenge for India is to be self-reliant in this sector.
3. Supporting Industries
Some experts believe that the main task for India is to create supporting industries for the chip industry to emerge. The issue relates to some basic things, like having a stable power grid and consistent water availability, which make it possible to build the semiconductor industry.
4. Political Will
The chip industry is capital-intensive and time-consuming, which requires deep commitment from the government and private players alike. It requires the willpower of successive governments to stay in the game. PM Modi wants India to be a developed economy by 2047. A long-term semiconductor strategy will be needed if India really is to become a developed country by 2047.
5. Skilled Manpower
India has manpower in abundance, but it has a shortage of the kind of skilled manpower needed in the semiconductor industry.
6. Brain Drain
India could achieve its goal of becoming a semiconductor hub in around five to six years rather than the conventional 10-20 year timeframe if we manage to bring big Indian talent, serving global companies, back home. Can we entice them with equivalent salary packages and perks? Can nation-building be a motivator? Can we improve our work culture to make it more professional and productive?
Taiwan's success story owes a lot to the Taiwanese-origin executives who obtained their semiconductor expertise and experiences in the US. The Taiwanese government in the 1980s decided to bring its talented people back to kickstart the semiconductor industry. It paid them salaries on a par with Western companies. These expat Taiwanese played a huge role in making Taiwan a truly global chip hub.
South Korea's chip revolution also started after the government enticed many Korean experts working in Japanese companies to come back and work in Korea.
There is no dearth of Indians who are doing well in the semiconductor business in the US and elsewhere. Around a dozen leaders of the world's leading chip-making companies are either Indian or of Indian origin. I have met a couple. They all love India. But India needs to create the right conditions to bring them back, and also stop the brain drain of young engineering graduates who are in high demand abroad.
A New Dawn
India is on the cusp of sealing deals with several multinational companies to launch new projects. The Modi government has recognised the fact that if India needs to be a big geopolitical player, it needs to be the leading light in the semiconductor arena. What follows after the Micron factory will determine the future of India's semiconductor industry.
(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author