Maldives president-elect Mohamed Muizzu's statement that he will stick to his campaign promise to remove Indian troops based in the strategically important archipelago nation has created a flutter. The victory of the pro-China candidate is a serious blow to India in its geopolitical rivalry with China in the Indian Ocean region. Muizzu ran his entire campaign theme 'India Out' on the premise of an alleged threat to the Maldives' sovereignty with the presence of Indian military personnel on one of its islands. Muizzu's comments were aimed at placating China and provoking India.
Maldives, made up of 1,200 coral islands in the Indian Ocean, is strategically located on the main shipping route between the East and the West. Given Maldives' proximity to maritime trade routes and its domestic politics, steeped in India-China rivalry, the latest loud anti-India utterances has made the world take notice.
Outgoing President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih had close relations with India. In 2018, he had defeated Abdulla Yameen, leader of the People's National Congress, a pro-China leader, on corruption grounds. Yameen dragged Maldives into China's debt trap diplomacy as part of Belt and Road Initiative during his presidency from 2013 to 2018, signing several high-cost infrastructure projects in lieu of huge debts amounting to around $1.4 billion. This included an $800 million deal for developing the main international airport of the island chain in Male, which was awarded to Chinese company Beijing Urban Construction Group over a more deserving Indian company.
Yameen was jailed for money laundering and couldn't run for elections against Solih this time. So, he propped up Muizzu as presidential candidate. The situation turned worst for incumbent President Solih after a split in his ruling Maldivian Democratic Party, which saw one of his prominent party leaders, Mohamed Nasheed, break away, helping the opposition win the election. After winning, Muizzu thanked his political mentor Yameen by transferring him from prison to house arrest.
Solih, with an "India First" policy, initiated good relations with New Delhi in response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Neighbour First" policy. Many infrastructure projects were signed as part of this. India has always had good bilateral relations with Maldives, except for those five years of the Yameen regime. India rushed assistance to the Maldives in 1988 to counter the coup against the then Maldivian government. Due to its naval presence in the region, India was the first to help Maldives at the time of the tsunami in 2004. India also helped the nation tide over its drinking water crisis in 2014 and provided medicines as part Operation Sanjeevani. In January 2021, when developed nations and China were not sharing Covid vaccines, India sent vaccines to Maldives as part of Operation Vaccine Maitri.
"India and Maldives share civilisational links and enjoy cordial and multi-dimensional relations. Maldives has been a time-tested partner of India in the Indian Ocean region. India was among the first countries to recognise Maldives after its independence in 1965," says Sandeep Tripathi, founder, Forum for Global Studies.
India gave Lines of Credit to the Maldives multiple times to fund its myriad civilian, infrastructural and defence projects. India was involved in developing Maldives' defence infrastructure from the ground up. The Indian Navy gifted naval vessels for coastal surveillance and for combating drug trafficking. New Delhi also extended aid in the form of training personnel and capability development, help with infrastructure building and joint exercises.
Both countries have regularly held bilateral defence cooperation dialogues at the defence secretary level, the latest in March in Male. Tthe 'Uthuru Thila Falhu' Naval Base, a part of a plan to promote regional development and security, is a recent example of joint work on developing defence platforms and infrastructure between the two countries.
India and the Maldives collaborated with Sri Lanka on common maritime security concerns in the region. This led to a biennial trilateral security dialogue between the three countries. Since 2011, the Colombo Security Conclave has acted as a new mini-lateral organisation to improve security cooperation with the island and coastal states in the Indian Ocean.
There is nothing new in the India-Maldives cooperation that prompted pro-China elements to stir up an anti-India tirade and perception among the people of Maldives. With India's growing stature as the regional superpower, anti-India views appear to have become an agenda for elections in neighbouring countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and now Maldives.
In all this, India must not lose sight of its long-term commitment to help Maldives in its overall development, creating a positive impact on the lives of the common people in that country. Infrastructure and projects benefiting local communities, which also generate employment and ease of living, would definitely help build bridges with the country and its people, with whom India has had close cultural and traditional ties.
India's High Impact Community Projects in Maldives must look at generating employment, employability and encourage entrepreneurship among the youth. India should also look at the timely completion of its infrastructure projects in Maldives. This is where China, as part of its BRI initiatives, scores over India.
After the electoral clatter dies down and Muizzu officially becomes President on November 17, the practicality of running the country will force him to take a middle path. "The Muizzu government will introspect India's contributions over the last so many years and tone down its approach towards New Delhi. Bilateral relations do not take a U-turn overnight," Dr Tripathi commented.
India must be patient and adopt the wait-and-watch stance without cutting down on its people-focussed outreach to Maldives. There are no permanent friends or enemies in diplomacy. To begin with, India may have to play the game on Maldives' terms.
(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author