Years ago, I dined at an exotically named restaurant, '1001 Nights', in St. Petersburg, Russia. There, I met four young students from southern Indian states, all studying medicine. To earn some pocket money, they worked part-time at the restaurant. Curious, I asked if they liked being so far from home, enduring Russia's unforgiving winters. Their answer was straightforward: medical education in Russia was far more affordable, the hospital training was solid and, most importantly, their degrees were recognised back in India. I couldn't help but admire their determination.

My interpreter on that trip was a naturalised Russian citizen, originally from Kerala. His father, a staunch Leftist, had sent him to study in the Soviet Union in the late 1980s—not for the academics, but for ideological reasons. “I got a master's in Russian literature, met my wife here and now we have a beautiful daughter. No regrets.” No wonder he was so fluent in Russian—not to mention his penchant for vodka and caviar.

Back then, hundreds of Indian students like him enrolled in Soviet universities, with many eventually settling there.

Russia, On Old Study Destination

Russia has never been an unusual destination for Indian students. Their numbers have been steady, never overwhelming. For the 'Big 4' though, the trend is changing, and the latest figures presented in Parliament recently tell a different story: Indian students are increasingly looking beyond the US, UK, Canada and Australia, once the gold standard for international education. 

Canada, once a hot favourite for Indian students, took a massive hit in 2024—enrolments from India plunged by 41%. Meanwhile, Russia saw a 34% spike, drawing in more Indian students than the previous year. The UK also felt the squeeze—Indian student numbers dropped from 136,921 in 2023 to 98,890 in 2024, a sharp 28% decline in just one year. The US and Australia didn't escape the slump either, with significant drops in Indian student enrolments.

But this isn't true only of Indian students. In general, global student mobility is also taking a hit. International education is a $200 billion industry, with the UK, US, Canada and Australia being its biggest players. But across the board, numbers are sliding. Canada saw a 27% drop in total international enrolments, while the UK reported an 18% decline. The US took a smaller but notable hit, with a 6% dip in international student numbers.

Signs of trouble are piling up. ApplyBoard, a global university application portal used by over a million students from 150 countries, confirmed the downward trend in its latest study. Search interest for the Big Four study destinations fell by 14% in the year ending January 2025, following an even steeper 22% drop the previous year.

Last September, alarm bells were ringing across the Big Four study destinations. Worried educators and university leaders gathered in London for a crisis summit, grappling with the freefall in international student numbers. “The idea that the US and the foreign market can continue to dominate is a very old framework,” said Dr. Fanta Aw, CEO of NAFSA: Association of International Educators. The overriding feeling was that the landscape was shifting and students were looking elsewhere.

If the Big Four were once an unshakable education powerhouse, so too were the outbound students from China, India and South Korea—together, nearly two million of them fuelling the financial engine of Western universities. But as these students explore alternative destinations, the West's higher education sector faces a painful problem. Fewer students mean tighter budgets, struggling universities and a fading global dominance.

There are several factors, including the self-inflicted ones, that contribute to the declining number of foreign students in the Big Four countries. 

Hostile Rules

Beyond the length of student visas, governments in these countries are making it harder for graduates to stay and work. The UK's crackdown on dependent visas, Canada's cap on study permits, and Australia's tougher rules on post-study work have made it harder for students to justify the investment. The universities say the government actions are counterproductive, but their protests are royally disregarded. By March 12, President Trump had signed 128 executive orders, including 10 targeting immigration—one of which called for a sweeping review of all visa programmes, including those for international students. A survey found that any US travel ban on students or visitors could deal a serious blow to the country's reputation as a study destination. Nearly two-thirds of respondents said such a move would shatter their perception of the US as a welcoming place for international students—many would no longer even consider studying there.

Rising Costs

Studying in these countries has become increasingly expensive, especially with inflation pushing up rent, food and daily expenses. Many students are looking at cheaper yet high-quality alternatives like Russia, Central Asian countries, and Germany.

Geopolitical Tensions And Rise Of Non-Western Hubs

Rising xenophobia, racial attacks and political uncertainties are making students rethink their choices. Countries seen as more welcoming and politically stable are gaining traction

Rise of quality non-Western education hubs: Countries like China, the UAE, Singapore and Japan are aggressively expanding their universities, offering scholarships and partnering with global institutions to attract international talent.

The UK's Woes

Here in the UK, I've been reading reports for the past year warning that "British universities are in freefall”. The crisis is real—universities are slashing jobs by the hundreds. In January, Bournemouth University announced 400 job cuts—a sign of just how deep the problem runs. Higher education in the UK is, by all accounts, a sinking ship. The number of international students is plummeting, and universities are staring down a serious funding crisis. According to British media, nearly 80% of institutions could soon be running deficits and many are already in survival mode—slashing jobs, shutting down courses, cutting back on catering, merging institutions and outsourcing services just to stay afloat.

The warning signs have been flashing for years, but things look set to get worse. Prospective Indian and Chinese students are aware of the problems, and they are doing the right thing by looking at other destinations.

The Crisis Across the Atlantic

The Trump administration recently delivered a hard $400 million punch to Columbia University, pulling federal grants for allegedly failing to control anti-Semitism and "illegal protests". It is ironic that this is the same Columbia that, in April 2024, called in the police to crack down on a pro-Palestine student encampment, leading to over 100 students being arrested, some beaten up and a full-scale police raid on campus. Columbia's then-president, Minouche Shafik, had already promised a congressional committee that she'd crack down harder on student activism—but in the end, her loyalty wasn't enough to save the university from Trump's wrath. The moral of the story: Bending over backwards for political approval doesn't always pay off.

In the same breath, the Trump administration's education purge is accelerating. Nearly 1,300 employees at the Department of Education were recently fired, slashing its workforce to just over 2,100 people—skeleton staff for a federal agency overseeing education nationwide.

Make no mistake, the US remains a dream destination for many, but foreign students—including those from India—are turning away from the Big Four as political hostility, visa restrictions and funding cuts make it clear that they are no longer welcome. Universities, long reliant on international tuition fees, now face financial uncertainty, while students rethink their options.

(Syed Zubair Ahmed is a London-based senior Indian journalist with three decades of experience with the Western media)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author