The situation around the Ukraine conflict is becoming more complicated. The US is in an election mode, and that means that any step that might disadvantage the Democratic presidential candidate cannot be taken. After supporting a proxy war in Ukraine against Russia all this while, any step to de-escalate or open the doors to negotiation would be almost impossible politically.
The choice is between escalating or avoiding any serious new escalatory step. It is here that the discussion over allowing Zelenskyy to use NATO-supplied long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory comes in. Ukraine is already striking deep into Russia with drones and has also launched a land invasion of Russia in Kursk. But for Russia, it will mean a major escalation by NATO if the UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles were used against Russia itself, although they have been used against Ukrainian territories that Russia has annexed. Russia has in practice accepted that distinction and not raised the stakes as President Vladimir Putin has now done.
UK Determined To Escalate
The Russian president has warned that such a move will mean NATO entering into a direct conflict with Russia as these missiles cannot be launched without guidance by US satellites and, indeed, by NATO crews on the ground in Ukraine, as the Ukrainian military would not know how to prime them technically for targeting. Putin has declared that Russia will take appropriate steps to counter this escalation. What this could mean is a matter of speculation as Russia could have options below the nuclear threshold.
The UK, as usual, is determined to escalate the conflict. Five of its ex-Defence Secretaries want Ukraine to be given permission to use long-range weapons even without the US's approval. The UK's deep-seated hostility towards Russia seems almost compulsive. Its excessive warmongering could also be to both push the US to escalate while also acting as a willing front for the US to make the latter look more "responsible". The US, which is ultimately responsible for managing the consequences of escalation, and not Europe, seems hesitant to allow the use of its long-range missiles to strike deep into Russia but seems prepared to clear the use of British and French missiles. The fiction would be that the US would not be directly involved, though when Putin refers to NATO being involved - as these missiles need NATO technical support for launching them - he is implicating the US too.
The Western Narrative On Ukraine
Zelenskyy's strategy seems to be to drag NATO more and more into the conflict, no matter what the eventual cost is for Ukraine or for Europe, as the survival of his own regime is involved. The Western narrative on Ukraine is simple: Russia has violated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a smaller European country; the attack is unprovoked and violates the international order; if Russia were to succeed it would next threaten Western Europe; Russia cannot be allowed to win, and therefore Ukraine has to be supported. Zelenskyy has exploited this simplistic narrative to seek more and more arms from the West, claiming that it is not merely a Ukrainian fight but a European one. He is now intending to go to the US to discuss his "victory plan" with Biden.
The US and Europe openly seek to use this conflict to impose a strategic defeat on Russia, and if that looks increasingly unlikely despite imposing draconian sanctions, then to, at least, continue to bleed and weaken Russia by prolonging the proxy war against it. This was the sense of the joint Op-Ed in Financial Times by the US and UK intelligence chiefs, which stressed it was vital to continue supporting Ukraine, with the CIA chief also seeing virtue in Ukraine's land attack against Russia in Kursk. The US Secretary of State and the UK Foreign Secretary also jointly visited Kyiv very recently and announced more financial aid to Ukraine.
India's Options
It is in this background that India is seeking to play some role to nudge the two sides towards a negotiated solution to the conflict. India has not been deterred from taking this initiative despite the complexity of the issue, the seemingly irreconcilable position of the two sides on some fundamental points, and the fact that any peace effort with Russia and Ukraine cannot move forward without the US. We have not announced contact with the US on this subject.
Actually, Europe will have to be involved too if India wants to play a substantive role.
That Modi will discuss India's initiative with Biden when he goes to the US this month is likely, now that he knows Putin's mind after his own talks with him and the feedback he has got from National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. But Biden can hardly modify its position in favour of dialogue and diplomacy with the US presidential election in the offing when all along the choice has been to wage a proxy war against Russia for larger geopolitical reasons that go beyond Ukraine.
The rhetoric against Russia has gone up, with accusations against the Russian spread of disinformation in the US and globally, and the effort to seek a worldwide ban on RT and related Russian media for intelligence activities, etc. With German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visiting India shortly, Modi will have a chance to discuss his peace initiative with him too.
Doval's Visit
India has raised its peacemaking profile by Modi sending Doval to St Petersburg to personally brief Putin on the talk the Prime Minister had with Zelenskyy in Kyiv. Despite the controversial comments made by Zelenskyy to the Indian press on India's purchase of Russian oil, calling on India to join the communiqué issued after the first summit in Switzerland if it wanted to hold a peace summit, and differing perspectives on the agenda of the next peace summit that came out in External Affairs Minister Jaishankar's press briefing in Kyiv, enough of substance seems to have emerged from the private talks with Zelenskyy to warrant a personal briefing to Putin. Is it that the Ukrainian position in private is less rigid on substantive issues than its public enunciation? By accepting to receive Doval in an unprecedented gesture, Putin is endorsing India's peace efforts, though it is difficult to imagine that he would resign from his core position on territory and NATO membership of Ukraine.
Judging from what the Ukrainian ambassador to India said subsequently to the press here on India's peace efforts, it appears that Ukraine continues to aggressively define its position. The ambassador was out of line in asking India to convince Moscow to join peace talks, linking the legitimacy of India's bid for permanent membership of the UN Security Council to taking a position of its own on global issues and not simply conveying messages from one side to the other and being a courier or messenger or a post box. He reiterated Zelenskyy's position that the condition for India to hold the next peace summit would be to join the Burgenstock communique
All in all, it is difficult to judge the dynamics of the peace initiative India has taken as the hurdles to peace are all too apparent at present.
(Kanwal Sibal was Foreign Secretary and Ambassador to Turkey, Egypt, France and Russia, and Deputy Chief Of Mission in Washington.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author