Last year's October 7 terror attacks by Hamas unleashed carnage on ordinary civilians, the aftermath of which continues to this day. Today marks one year since that fateful morning. Both the attack by a non-state actor and the state response to it were unprecedented in terms of their sheer scope, firepower and destruction. Gaza has been flattened out, with millions of people internally displaced within a narrow Gaza strip. Israel, too, has lost some 1,200 civilians and soldiers; this is in addition to over 250 people who were taken hostage by Hamas on October 7.
Many forget that the date of the Hamas attack also marked the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War. The gravity of the day and the need to beef up security should not have been lost on Mossad, the Shin Bet and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). But perhaps Israel was overconfident. So when the agencies were caught unawares, Benjamin Netanyahu, heading Israel's ultra-right government, naturally vowed to destroy Hamas, with only one goal in mind: reoccupation of Gaza.
The World Has Failed To Understand The Conflict
However, despite the carpet bombing of Palestine and the assassination of a number of Hamas militants and leaders, the group survives a year on. It continues to hold around 100 hostages captive even now, hoping to use them as leverage for a permanent ceasefire and release of their prisoners from Israeli jails. But Netanyahu is in no mood for negotiation. Already, he has extended his tenure to escape legal action, in the process subjecting himself to International Court of Justice (ICJ) rulings and International Criminal Court (warrants). Those things matter little to him though - if anything, Netanyahu seems to be wearing this international criticism as a medal of honour.
The international community's approach to resolving the conflict has been flawed since the very beginning. The focus has always been on avoiding the escalation and expansion of the war without showing much commitment towards addressing the root cause of the tensions, including the Palestinian issue. Iran and Israel both suffer from the Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) syndrome, that is, in case of conflict, they'd strive for each other's complete destruction. Iran's quest for nuclear parity with Israel and its asymmetrical advantage and influence exercised through its proxies, the three or four 'H's - Hamas in Gaza and Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, Houthis and Kataib Hezbollah in Iraq - have been a constant source of worry for the Jewish state as well as its benefactors in the West, especially the US.
The 'Neutrality' Of Arab Countries
Even Arab countries in the region are wary of Iranian power pursuits and projections - which is why, even as many nations continue their rapprochement with Iran, the ongoing Israeli campaign against its proxies does not raise many eyebrows. This was evident during the recent Iran-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meeting in Doha, where the new Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, met the Qatari Emir and Foreign Ministers of GCC countries. The Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia forthrightly claimed that his country was committed to resolving all differences with Iran. "We seek to close the page of differences between the two countries forever and work towards the resolution of our issues and expansion of our relations like two friendly and brotherly states," he said.
The Gulf countries also assured Iran of their neutrality in the ongoing war and stated that they would not allow US bases to operate against Iran. How that will play out is a million-dollar question, given how many of these countries recently closed their airspaces; in fact, the missiles Iran fired at Israel recently were neutralised by the US airbase in Jordan.
Why Iran Responded With Force
In April, the bombing of the Iranian mission in Damascus led to a calibrated exchange of missiles and attacks and counter-attacks. Post that, Tehran was persuaded not to retaliate to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh since a ceasefire deal had been in the offing. The new, somewhat moderate, President of Iran, has been keen to reopen channels of communication with the West and the US, including its nuclear files, which explains the "strategic restraint and patience" Iran showed initially.
But with the shocking execution of the Hamas and Hezbollah's political and military leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon, the Iranian regime was left with little choice but to respond, lest it be seen as a mere Paper Tiger by its people and proxies. Hence, on October 1, it fired some 181 missiles, most of which were intercepted by the US and others, though some did penetrate Israeli territory, hitting Mossad and military establishments. Of course, the information of this operation is said to have been shared through common interlocutors.
The 'Oil' Factor
Netanyahu has called this escalation a direct attack by Iran and has vowed to respond and retaliate at a time and place of its choosing. Reports indicate that Tel Aviv wants to attack Iranian nuclear installations - it had done so earlier too, though clandestinely - but US President Biden is not in favour of this. Instead, they are reportedly planning to target a few oil installations and refineries. Already, oil prices have shot up by over $8 per barrel and may even breach the steady band, impacting several economies, including India.
As such, Israel is engaged on several fronts simultaneously, including Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq and Iran. Iraqi militia groups have also used UAVs and missiles to attack Israeli positions, stating that any attacks on Iranian fields will deprive the world of oil supplies from others.
As of now, the IDF's main priority in Lebanon is the elimination of Hezbollah. Heavy clashes have been reported from southern Lebanon, forcing nearly a million Lebanese and Syrian refugees to flee for safety. Israel feels that the relentless attacks by Hezbollah across the border into Northern Isreal were putting its sovereignty at risk, with over 70,000 displaced Israelis unable to return to their homes. But even in leaning towards this logic, it fails to realise the consequences of what is happening in Gaza to a 20 times bigger Palestinian population, being flung around from place to place under inhumane conditions. The Lebanese army has also been dragged into the war and has responded to attacks as it continues to urge adherence to the UNSC Resolution 1701.
World Watches With Bated Breath
The international community has expressed deep concern at the deteriorating situation in Lebanon as intense firing continues across the Blue Line and areas observed by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) are breached. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati also continues to urge for the implementation of a 21-day ceasefire proposed by the US and France and the provision of uninterrupted humanitarian and relief supplies as his country has been already reeling under deep political uncertainty and financial crunch. Meanwhile, the Iranian Foreign Minister on his recent visits to Beirut and Damascus promised humanitarian support and assured the disjointed Hezbollah and Hamas of their full assistance.
Although G7 leaders have condemned Iran's missile attacks, they have issued a statement that there is a need for cessation of hostilities as soon as possible to create space for a diplomatic solution along the Blue Line. The Arab League also expressed its concern and full support for Lebanon. As for Iran, it now appears to have abdicated its strategic restraint and has maintained that though it did not want to escalate the war, an attack by Israel would force it to respond in an unconventional manner. A rare Friday sermon by Ayatollah Khamenei underlined that sentiment. Some even argue that with its nuclear enrichment at threshold levels, Iran is capable of building small nuclear weapons in a much shorter duration. And if Israel chooses to target in its next strike Iranian missile storages, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters, air or sea bases, or nuclear or oil and gas facilities, then that could push Iran to even block the Strait of Hormuz, further choking maritime trade and hydrocarbons transit.
Things May Turn Complicated For India, Too
India has been urging restraint and resolution of the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. Three of its ships remain in Iranian ports for some exercises. Indian naval assets have also been guarding sea lanes and commercial shipping since the Houthis attacked vessels in the Red Sea. New Delhi shares a close relationship with both Iran and Israel. The region - India's extended neighbourhood - is critical as any instability and security deficit will mean a risk to the three 'E's - economy, energy supplies and the welfare of roughly 9 million expats.
As things stand, unless sanity prevails on all sides, we are heading irreversibly into an abyss of disaster that's being facilitated, primarily, by the absence of any effective multilateral deterrence.
(Amb Anil Trigunayat is a Distinguished Fellow at Vivekananda International Foundation)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author