Two days after US President Donald Trump berated Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House on live television, European leaders met in London to present a united front to support him. They agreed on a plan to achieve peace in Ukraine with some security guarantees, though they still want the US to provide military backing.

Trump has so far refused to commit to any, a major reason for the bust-up at the Oval Office on Friday. Unlike Europeans' strong show of support for Zelensky, Trump is still very angry with him and has now paused military aid to Ukraine. This came after the Ukrainian leader said that the end of war with Russia is "very, very far away".

Trump's shock and awe foreign policy since his return to power less than six weeks ago has made analysts scratch their heads. Why is he abandoning Ukraine, embracing Russia, and turning his back on an alliance of Western liberal democracies, which has worked largely successfully under the US leadership since the Second World War?

What explains his seemingly imperialist pronouncements about taking over Greenland and the Panama Canal, an aggressive push for a deal on critical minerals with Ukraine and imposition of tariffs on several countries?

The Elephant In The Room: China

An obvious explanation of Trump's actions and pronouncements is that he is fulfilling the campaign promise of his America First policy. His preference for strongmen like the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is also clear. That Trump is not a fan of the European Union is also well-known.

But look closely, and you will find China at the core of his new foreign policy. Consider Trump's statements and shocking pronouncements, and link them with some of the less publicised actions he has taken in the past five weeks, and you will find a clear pattern emerging. Unlike European leaders who still see Russia as a major threat to their security, Trump has concluded that the main threat to the US comes from China, the world's second-biggest economy after his own. He doesn't name Beijing in this context, but his actions speak for themselves.

Western sanctions against Russia over the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 forced Putin to seek China's help, which led to a surge in their bilateral trade to more than 26% in a year. Although bilateral trade did not rise as much in the following two years, Moscow still banks on Beijing as the West, then led by Joe Biden, worked to isolate and punish Russia.

Weaning Putin Away

Trump is keen to pull Vladimir Putin from Chinese President Xi Jinping's lap,  just as Nixon had delinked China from the Soviet Union in the 1970s. He appears to believe that continuing a cold war with Russia in the 21st century doesn't make sense when it doesn't threaten the US directly.

He wants to rebuild US-Russia relations, something Putin is also interested in. There are already talks of readmitting Putin to the G-7 fold once a peace deal over Ukraine is concluded—a key goal of Trump despite last Friday's events in Washington. Of course, the Europeans still feel that Moscow under Putin threatens their security. They warn that letting him win in Ukraine will only embolden him.

Why is China The 'Main' Threat?

The new US administration strongly believes, and not without reason, that it is China that is their main adversary, and that it uses unfair trade practices to exploit America, illicitly tries to obtain US technology to advance its military and industrial programme, and poses a serious threat to its security.

Trump also believes that China has exploited globalisation to its advantage. It uses state-owned corporations that are heavily subsidised by the government to enter markets of other countries, including the US. They invest even in America's critical industries while blocking US firms from doing the same in China.

A presidential document titled ‘America First Investment Policy', signed by Trump over a week ago, warns that “PRC-affiliated investors are targeting the crown jewels of United States technology, food supplies, farmland, minerals, natural resources, ports, and shipping terminals”. The document promises to “establish new rules” to stop that.

Minerals, Minerals Everywhere

Trump's main concern, however, is China's control of critical minerals, including graphite, lithium, cobalt and copper, which are used in electric car batteries, nuclear power, medical equipment, clean energy products, and weapons. China controls over 60% of these minerals and the refinement of up to 90% of them. The United States imports 41 of the 50 critical minerals listed by the US Geological Survey. China is the largest producer of 29 of them and is increasingly weaponising them by imposing export controls and bans.

This explains Trump's efforts to secure the supply of these minerals from Ukraine and elsewhere. Ukraine has deposits of more than 20 of those 50 critical minerals, including large deposits of titanium, which is used for making aircraft wings and other aviation products.

Ukraine also has the largest uranium deposits in Europe. So, no wonder Trump still wants to sign a deal with Kyiv for these minerals, despite Friday's shouting match at the Oval Office. Zelensky said on Sunday that Ukraine is also ready to sign that deal.

Greenland And Panama Dreams 

China has also been harvesting critical minerals in other parts of the world, despite large reserves at home. It has been active in Greenland since 2013, when the island repealed a law banning the mining of radioactive material and rare earth elements. It has huge reserves of rare earth minerals, lithium, graphite, copper, nickel, zinc, and other materials used in green technologies. Trump doesn't want these minerals to be exploited by China and is keen to acquire the territory.

China is also a factor in the Trump administration's interest in taking over the US-built Panama Canal. There has been increased Chinese shipping activity there in the past few years, which the US sees as a threat to its security.

The Fentanyl Flooding 

The first set of tariffs announced by Trump was against Canada, Mexico and China. But they were not an attempt to address the trade deficit—they were mainly driven by the need to curb the import of Fentanyl, an opioid drug, which, he says, comes primarily from China. It is up to 50 times more potent than heroin and is largely responsible for the opioid crisis in the US.

In what he called an opening salvo, Trump, within 10 days of returning to power, imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and 10% on all Chinese imports into the US. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico were suspended for a month, but those against China remained. Beijing reacted with its own set of tariffs, which, not surprisingly, included restricting the supply of 25 critical minerals.

Now Trump has doubled the tariffs on China to 20%, saying that Chinese-made Fentanyl is still coming into the US.

Deep Concerns With DeepSeek 

China's open-source AI application, DeepSeek, released a month ago, is being seen in Washington as Beijing's latest move to attain technological dominance and undermine safety in cyberspace. Two Republican members have even proposed a bill to ban the app.

DeepSeek is cheap, does not use high-end chips, and is more energy efficient. However, the US Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that "while open-source models can be made secure when built with strong safety guardrails, DeepSeek's design allows users to alter not only its functionalities but also its safety mechanisms, creating a far greater risk of exploitation".

Several US agencies, such as NASA and the US Navy, have asked employees not to use DeepSeek due to national security concerns. Trump has signed an executive order asking his officials to prepare an action plan on AI within 180 days.

Beijing Is Now More Prepared Too

Trump in his first term had announced a slew of tariffs against China, after which the Biden administration also imposed its own. But China has only toughened its stance and is now more prepared to respond to such pressures. Even before Trump began his second term, Beijing announced an embargo on four critical minerals to the United States. It also ordered four government-linked trade associations to direct their companies to avoid buying American computer chips. Additionally, it announced new rules favouring foreign companies that make their products in China.

Beijing has also been putting pressure on major US companies not to shift their production facilities to India, including Apple's main manufacturing partner, Foxconn. According to The Financial Times, Chinese officials have made it difficult for the Taiwanese manufacturer to send machinery and Chinese experts to India, where Apple is keen to build its supply chain.

Measures, More Measures

On his first day in office, one of the documents Trump signed was the ‘American First Trade Policy', which directed officials to review US-China trade relations, have a fresh look at previous agreements to find out whether Beijing has complied with their terms, and study new measures against the country.

According to The New York Times, Trump has also replaced a few officials in the Commerce Department. For example, Matthew S. Borman, a former deputy assistant secretary for export administration, has been removed, and Landon Heid, who advocated tighter restrictions on sales to Chinese technology companies while at the State Department, has been brought in.

The US President has also announced tariffs on steel imports aimed mainly at China. In another action, his administration proposed to impose levies of $1.5 million on Chinese-made ships arriving at American ports. As many as 20% of all vessels arriving at American ports are made in China.

Trump's actions against China could create economic pain and fuel inflation. However, he believes that short-term pain is better than having an ongoing reliance on China; this also fits into his national security narrative.

Advantage India?

US measures may encourage other countries as well to review their policy towards China and its state-owned firms. Although Europeans still see Russia as their main strategic threat, there is a growing recognition that China is also a prominent adversary. But as the global stock market turmoil in recent weeks has shown, the China-US trade war will impact the international economy.

India is certainly watching the developments in Washington closely. A thaw in Russia-US relations is a welcome sign for New Delhi, which has been concerned about Moscow becoming more reliant on Beijing since the Ukraine conflict.

China will try to improve relations with India, but India knows well that it is not a reliable partner. Beijing is, after all, New Delhi's main strategic foe and a security challenge. India has also suffered from attempts by it to disrupt supply chains of vital ingredients of pharma and other products.

After Trump's meeting in Washington on February 13 with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the two leaders announced the launch of the Strategic Mineral Recovery initiative, a new US-India programme to recover and process critical minerals.

As one of the top five producers of critical minerals, India is part of the Mineral Security Partnership with the United States and is keen to exploit American technical expertise to process them.

Putin Is Happy, But Cautious

The Kremlin is obviously happy with Trump's overtures towards Moscow and his treatment of Zelensky. Despite accusations by his critics that he is now doing Putin's bidding, Trump seems set to continue with his new foreign policy. Normalisation of relations with Moscow will also help US firms to return to Russia, offsetting some of the losses incurred from the trade war with China.

Putin, however, is too smart to trust the new US administration blindly. He is in no hurry to abandon China, though he will take advantage of Trump's overtures. Xi is also keen to maintain his country's strong ties with Moscow. Of course, his government will be working on retaliatory steps against measures taken by Washington.

(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the Associated Press and BBC News and is based in London)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author