The results of the 2024 general election appear to mark a significant shift in Dalit politics. There seems to be a sweeping departure from the traditional focus of Dalit politics on challenging India's entrenched caste-based hierarchy.
Historically, various Dalit political parties, such as the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the north, the Republican Party of India (RPI) in Maharashtra, and others like the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), the All Manipur Dalit Development Association, the Puthiya Tamilagam (PT) in Tamil Nadu, and the Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) in Andhra Pradesh and neighbouring states, have shaped Dalit political discourse in India. However, many of these parties have weakened over time, reflected in their diminished political influence.
Everyone Wants The Dalit Vote
The question of whether independent Dalit politics has a future in India is frequently debated. As India's democracy evolves, Dalits may increasingly assert themselves within the mainstream political landscape. Dalits constitute 16.6% of India's population, making their vote pivotal in shaping electoral outcomes. As a result, they are being aggressively courted by national parties such as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress.
Take Uttar Pradesh, for instance, which is a crucial state in determining the national election results due to its significant number of Lok Sabha seats. Dalits account for 21.1% of the state's population, and thus their voting patterns are a critical area of study. In the recent elections, Uttar Pradesh witnessed a departure from long-standing trends. Jatavs, a traditionally loyal group within the Dalit community known for their support for Mayawati's BSP, showed signs of shifting allegiance.
Additionally, a segment of the BJP's core supporters and youth, who had remained faithful since 2014, switched their support to the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance, citing local issues, anti-incumbency sentiments, unemployment concerns, and apprehensions about constitutional amendments.
The SP-Congress Alliance
The successful strategy of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress alliance in weaning Dalit votes away from the BSP in the recent elections exemplifies this shift. The alliance strategically fielded local candidates, further fragmenting the BSP's vote base. The SP's vote share rose from 17.96% in 2019 to 34% in 2024, directly correlating with the BSP's decline from 19% to 9% during the same period, leading to existential challenges for Mayawati's party. The entry of the Azad Samaj Party into politics further fractures the Dalit movement, widening existing divides.
After a commanding victory in a four-way race involving his party, the INDIA bloc, the BJP and the BSP, Chandrashekhar Azad further solidified his status as a rising Jatav youth icon. Similar Dalit voting trends can be observed across several states.
The outcome of the 2024 election surprised many. However, a closer examination reveals that this stemmed from swing states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Haryana, and Rajasthan, where the Lok Sabha election became more local than national, affecting the BJP in around 70 seats. The Dalit vote also demonstrated a local focus in what was a national election.
BJP Recalibrating Its Strategy
Is Dalit politics at an inflexion point? In 2024, Dalit votes were impacted by a number of factors. Political parties are swiftly moving to integrate Dalit politics into their platforms, recognising the emerging trend. They anticipate that Dalit votes will wield significant influence in the 2029 elections, particularly in rural areas, prompting a race among parties to establish early footholds. For instance, the Uttar Pradesh Congress unit plans to set up Dalit chaupals and sammelans to engage community members at the grassroots level and consolidate its electoral gains, with a major outreach campaign slated for the 2027 Assembly elections.
The BJP is actively recalibrating its strategy. Ahead of the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and the period leading up to 2029, it is crucial for the party to regain the complete confidence of Dalit voters. The direction forward hinges on the type of politics embraced - whether it is focused on empowerment or entitlement. Under Modi, the BJP has emphasised empowerment through initiatives like Nal se Jal and providing LPG connections and stoves to elevate living standards. Conversely, in Karnataka, the Congress has placed emphasis on entitlement through direct cash transfers to individual accounts.
The future trajectory will depend on how the BJP refines or expands its welfare policies, and, crucially, who emerges as the voice of the Dalits. Historically, Dalit women have been pivotal. But signs suggest that youth will increasingly shape the narrative leading up to 2029.
(The author is a broadcast journalist and psephologist, and founder of Jan Ki Baat)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author