Two statements last week by prime leaders of the parties that, to date, pass off as INDIA bloc members, provide pointers towards the outcome of the 2024 general elections.
In Kolkata, deriding Rahul Gandhi's Yatra 2.0 as an event for "photo shoots", Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee declared that the Congress was not capable of crossing even 40 seats in the Lok Sabha polls. Speaking in Rajya Sabha, Congress President Mallkarjun Kharge, in an attempt to mock the BJP, repeated the ruling party's clarion, 'aabki baar 400 paar', to the amusement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Pre-poll rhetoric? Perhaps. But the chasm between the figures cited by two INDIA leaders reflects perception of the poll prospects of the two principal national parties.
Nitish Kumar, the man who had accoucheured the idea of an anti-BJP front, with the Congress as its pivot since September 2022, has preferred to return to the BJP-led NDA rather than remaining in INDIA. The 'midwife' has aborted the birth of the new bloc.
Nitish Kumar's departure may be the precursor to more attrition in the opposition. INDIA bloc talks are still on in some states. Seat adjustments may emerge. The bid to pit one common candidate against the BJP in 400 seats is now a pipe dream.
The very idea of including the Congress in the anti-BJP front provoked resistance from most regional parties initially. A Third Front sans the BJP and Congress was the preferred theme of leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal, Akhilesh Yadav and K Chandrasekhara Rao (KCR), who favoured a 'Federal Front'.
The recent demeanour of Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav, Arvind Kejriwal and, to some extent, Uddhav Thackrey, shows that they prefer to treat the Congress as a pariah. (Even micro parties like the Rashtriya Lok Dal of Uttar Pradesh and the Vanchit Bahuja Aghadi of Maharashtra are flexing their muscles at Congress).
Nitish Kumar had countered the excommunication of the Congress. He had echoed Sharad Pawar, who had always advocated including the Congress. The Left parties also favour keeping the Congress on board.
In September 2022, a large number of opposition stalwarts converged in Haryana's Hisar to observe the birth anniversary of Chaudhary Devi Lal, who had been the force behind the emergence of the anti-Rajiv Gandhi front in 1989. Nitish Kumar took the Hisar platform to rope in these parties in favour of inclusiveness rather than the exclusion of Congress.
Later, he was joined by Lalu Yadav, who was then on his way to Singapore for his kidney transplant surgery. The two leaders called on Sonia Gandhi. Nitish Kumar followed this up with a meeting with Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul Gandhi in early 2023. The Patna conclave of June 23 followed.
Less than a month later, when Patna's host Nitish Kumar went to attend the Congress-hosted second meeting in Bengaluru on July 16-17, he was chagrined to find himself sidelined. Rahul Gandhi, closely aided by Sitaram Yachury of CPI (M), had taken centre stage. With his penchant for the 'Idea of India' to counter Modi, Rahul Gandhi suggested that the bloc be named 'INDIA' so that it would become a fight between Modi and 'INDIA'.
The etymology of INDIA reflected the quixotic approach of Narendra Modi's opponents. Rahul Gandhi's favoured abbreviation INDIA was expanded and the name "Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance" emerged. Normally, first comes a name, then the abbreviation. Here, the cart was placed before the horse.
Nitish Kumar had reservations on the bloc's name. When he found the discourse meandering, he, accompanied by Lalu Yadav and Tejashwi Yadav, left Bengaluru before the customary photo-op.
The next meeting in Mumbai in August-end saw Mamata leave the meeting in a huff. No meeting of the bloc so far has seen full attendance till the very end.
Last month, Mallikarjun Kharge held a virtual meet on Zoom but only 10 of 28 parties joined the call. The disparate group was in no rush to find a common programme to counter the BJP. Or to prepare the ground for seat-sharing across the 400 seats where they wanted to challenge the BJP jointly.
The INDIA bloc has not held a single public meeting in seven months of intense behind-the-door confabulations.
The Congress, the only pan-India party in the group, would normally have been expected to act as the binder. However, the Congress's reluctance to start seat sharing talks and its preoccupation with the projection of Rahul Gandhi made it lose the initiative.
As Rahul Yatra 2.0 reached West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's administration denied it basic facilities like night parking slots for vehicles and permission to hold meetings in public venues. Chagrined, Rahul Gandhi left the yatra for two days and flew off to Delhi. When he returned, he completed the north Bengal phase by curtailing his route and entered Bihar.
When he re-entered Bengal, yet another round of Trinamool hostilities ensued. Rahul Gandhi's statements to mollify Mamata Banerjee did not work. She held rallies in the very districts where the Yatra was scheduled. Her barrage of statements belittling the Congress continued.
While the Trinamool stayed away, district-level CPI(M) cadre joined in. However, CPI (M) too did not field its fiery petrel, youth leader Minakshi Mukherjee, who in recent weeks has made waves with her state-wide Insaaf Yatra (justice march), which culminated in a mammoth show of strength at Kolkata's Maidan on January 7.
Rahul Gandhi is accompanied in his yatra by the Congress's two most important general secretaries, KC Venugopal (in charge of party organisation) and Jairam Ramesh (Communications). Effectively, the Congress brass is in transit while the Lok Sabha polls loom large. Rahul Gandhi's travels have accentuated Congress's travails.
The Congress's pathetic state was exposed the day Nitish Kumar decided to switch. Kharge, who was in Karnataka's Kalburgi, said he had no information and would be returning to Delhi the next day and see what was happening. Apparently, Kharge made several calls to Nitish Kumar's mobile, which were not answered. When the landline in Patna was reached, he was informed that Nitish Kumar was not available.
On Saturday, Kharge kicked off the Congress's election campaign by addressing a rally in Delhi where his comparison of loyal party workers to barking dogs left the cadre both amused and confused.
Advising the party's local leaders to be diligent while appointing booth agents, he said, "When we buy a dog or an animal we are careful. If the dog is incapable of barking, we reject it. Similarly, a booth agent ought to be like a dog which is capable of barking" (a rough translation of his original gem in Hindi, which some party men posted on Instagram.)
Clearly a case of barking up the wrong tree - pardon the pun - while the BJP, with steady additions to its list of allies, is fully in poll mode.
Tailpiece: Sonia Gandhi's behaviour during the President's address to Parliament last week showed that she perhaps does not share Rahul Gandhi or Kharge's abrasiveness. Congress secretary Rajiv Shukla told media persons, "When the Rashtrapati mentioned Ram temple, we thumped the desk. Soniaji also thumped the desk and welcomed it." Sonia Gandhi was the binder of the United Progressive Alliance. Perhaps the inability of the present Congress dispensation to get the INDIA bloc going is embarrassing for her.
(Shubhabrata Bhattacharya is a retired Editor and a public affairs commentator.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.