Opinion: Is INDIA Bloc's Fight Over Before It Started?

Most people in cricket-crazy India probably know the familiar drill preceding a cluster of hastily cobbled-up and half-witted cricket teams, joining hands to challenge the champion team in nondescript kasbas or urban hamlets during annual jamborees or 'fetes'.

Minutes before the final eleven and the 'captain' is to be selected, fierce arguments erupt. The din created by three or four amateur wicketkeepers arguing who was better than others, at times, is drowned by similar quarrels between spinners and a smaller number of those fashioning themselves as 'fast' bowlers. Not to speak of others staking claim to every position in the team.

Squabbles like these are rarely settled amicably. Invariably, it is merely a matter of time before the most 'resourceful' team, but not with the best players necessarily, uses strongarm tactics and forces out some, many among them worthy of a place. At times, if unable to have their way, this team with the biggest playing kit even leaves the field. This virtually ends the contest, as not all players who eventually take the field are included for cricketing skills. 

This spectre hovers over opposition parties who, barely months ago, formed the I.ND.I.A. alliance. They not only stirred the emotions of a large number of Indians but also got the ruling BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi a tad anxious. However, after holding out the promise of maximizing one-on-one contests against the BJP across the country to raise the Index of Opposition Unity, these parties have once again been shown up as those who have perfected the art of belying hopes of the faithful. 

In mofussil and quasi-urban cricket matches, regardless of the shenanigans before the game, the result is known - the champ retains the position. With distressing regularity, this is being repeated in electoral politics too, with the BJP's victory being considered a given. Only the pattern of the opposition's burnout follows a different trajectory.

Of course, there were a few famous victories over the BJP. These, however, were not only few and far between, but also only in state polls, at least since 2014. Again for 2024, opposition parties are preparing to go through the motions of a contest, with the exception of a few states.

For several years, Nitish Kumar has been a perennially 'developing' story, although not in the manner of his sometime bete noire, sometime fellow traveler, PM Modi. 

It is probably poetic justice that although the inception of a combined opposition front for the 2024 election was at the instance of Nitish Kumar, who hosted the first meeting of the bloc in Patna in June 2023, its demise or bare survival too, is virtually dependent on his moves.

Will the Bihar Chief Minister change his political shade once again? For the nth time, to speak colloquially, Nitish Kumar may once again switch camps and also trigger the burial of a combined opposition front or alliance. 

In several ways, Nitish Kumar's frequent change of political alliances throughout his career, especially since 2013, is not surprising. He, after all, was the protege; of George Fernandes, who in 1979 famously spoke in support of the Morarji Desai government inside Lok Sabha and after stepping out of the House, declared his intention to part ways with the Janata Party and hitched his wagon to Charan Singh's outfit.

Speaking of George Fernandes, ties between Nitish Kumar and his one-time mentor turned bitter and they parted ways before age and disease took over, taking the former's life a few years ago.

But, even if Nitish Kumar eventually chooses to not join hands with the BJP, questions loom on the effectiveness of the I.N.D.I.A. alliance and its capacity to pose a serious challenge to the BJP.

This stems from Mamata Banerjee's decision to contest the polls without any alliance in West Bengal and possibly other states too, including Assam. Uncertainty also prevails due to the Aam Aadmi Party's ambivalence towards pacts with the Congress in Delhi, Punjab, and Gujarat, where the party registered a promising performance in the 2022 assembly elections.

The I.N.D.I.A. alliance faces a bleak future at this stage because of the intransigence of the Congress and its leadership, which continues to include Rahul Gandhi even though Mallikarjun Kharge is party president. After enthusiastically participating in two meetings post the first in Patna, in Bengaluru and Mumbai, the Congress leadership stopped interactions, even on a one-on-one basis, with other alliance partners.

The reason cited was that party leaders were 'busy' with the assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. This was not a genuine excuse for Kamal Nath in Madhya Pradesh, and Congress Chief Ministers in the other two Hindi heartland states kept the reins of the campaign in their hands, leaving little for central leaders to do save addressing a few meetings.

The party presupposed its victory in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh while being sure of running the BJP close in Rajasthan. This attitude angered partners like Akhilesh Yadav because the Congress refused to leave even a handful of seats for his party to contest in Madhya Pradesh. 

In Rajasthan too, the verdict showed that the Congress would have fared better, even retained power, had it made seat adjustments, if not formal alliances, with smaller parties.

The estrangement could have been reversed if Congress leaders had chosen to be more consultative. Instead, without taking other parties into confidence, Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra was announced, even through states where alliance partners were in government.

Is the Congress trying to outdo political associates instead of the BJP, they asked? Additionally, state Congress leaders were not silenced when they criticized regional partners - Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury and Ajay Maken in West Bengal and Delhi for instance, making it appear that this was part of a design.

The brand image of Gandhi as a 'perpetual Yatri' was not what the party and the alliance required virtually on the eve of parliamentary polls. This added insult to injury - already alliance members were angry for being cold-shouldered from September to December. Furthermore, the Yatra was announced without the Congress even asking other parties whether they would like to be part of it.

Alliances that had defeated the ruling party in the past had conducted campaigns and mobilised people long before elections were held. A common minimum programme is also necessary for disparate parties to make a common cause. This time, once again, it is the BJP that got its act together earlier, after a brief period of anxiety, but the opposition remains far from putting up a combined challenge.

No battle can be declared over before it has even started. But, the I.ND.I.A. alliance remains way behind and faces the prospect of being a non-starter when it really matters.

(Journalist and author, the writer's books include The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project. He also wrote Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times and Sikhs: Untold Agony of 1984)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.