The number of people killed in Gaza in the Israel-Hamas war reached a new milestone over the weekend. More than 50,000 people have now died, including 15,613 children, according to figures released by Gaza's health ministry on Sunday.
Nearly 700 Palestinians have lost their lives since last Tuesday, when Israel restarted lethal air strikes in Gaza last week. Both Israel and the US have blamed Hamas for the new offensive, which has ripped into a fragile ceasefire that had largely held since it came into effect in January.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the military was asked to take action against the “terrorist” group after its "repeated refusal to release our hostages" as well as its rejection of US proposals. But many question the true intentions of Netanyahu.
The first phase of the ceasefire ended on March 1. In the second phase, Hamas was to release the remaining 59 hostages—35 of them believed to be dead—in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal.
But Israel never started negotiations for the second phase. US envoy Steve Witkoff put forward his new "bridging proposal" that would have extended the expired first phase. He proposed that more hostages would return home in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners. But, crucially, negotiations over a permanent end to the war would be delayed. That was not acceptable to Hamas, and Israel walked out of the ceasefire agreement.
The New Israeli Offensive
Has Netanyahu's government restarted its bombing campaign because of Hamas refusing to free the remaining hostages, or is it due to issues he is facing at home? Is this move an attempt to implement a long-held agenda of the far-right in Israel to occupy Gaza permanently, reestablish Israeli settlements there, or even implement President Trump's plan to expel Palestinians from the territory and make it a “riviera of the Middle East?”
Last Friday, Israel's Defence Minister, Israel Katz, said he had instructed the military to seize additional areas of the Gaza Strip while issuing evacuation orders for Palestinian civilians in those areas to build up pressure on Hamas. “If the Hamas terror organisation continues to refuse to release the hostages, I instructed the IDF to capture additional areas, evacuate the population, and expand the security zone around Gaza for the protection of Israeli communities and IDF soldiers, through a permanent hold of the area by Israel…As long as Hamas continues its refusal, it will lose more and more land that will be added to Israel,” he said in a statement.
If one looks at Katz's statement along with reports in the Israeli media, the Netanyahu government's plan for Gaza appears to emerge. The reports say the military chief, Eyal Zamir, is preparing for a full-scale ground offensive to reinstate military control in Gaza. “It seems that Israel is currently creating a smokescreen around the government and military's true intentions. While waiting for possible updates in negotiations, which are uncertain, preparations are underway for a large-scale operation to occupy Gaza and restore full Israeli control,” writes commentator Amos Hartel in Haaretz newspaper. “This will occur while the far-right factions in the government push for the return of settlements and the forced expulsion of Palestinians, to be presented as ‘voluntary migration', with backing from Donald Trump,” he adds.
Will Israeli Settlements Return?
Of course, Israel's far-right would like the reported plan to be implemented. They have been demanding for months that the Israeli settlements come back to Gaza (Israel had settlements in Gaza until 2005, which were removed after the government decided to pull back).
Until recently, most analysts and commentators in Israel thought resettling Gaza was far-fetched. But not anymore. In October, two senior far-right Cabinet ministers, six lawmakers from Netanyahu's Likud party and several of his party's local leaders from across Israel attended a pro-settlement rally, where demands were raised for creating Israeli settlements in Gaza.
But there is no evidence that a majority of the Israeli public is ready for such a plan, or even for a permanent occupation of Gaza. In any case, it is unlikely to make them more secure. Gazans are also not willing to leave the territory despite their unprecedented hardships since the Hamas-Israel war.
Palestinians can't forget the “Nakba” of 1948, in which, following the founding of the state of Israel, about half of the civilians residing in Palestine were forced to leave their homes and never allowed to return. Many settled in Gaza.
Growing Protests Against The Plan
As part of his plan, Trump has suggested that Arab countries—Egypt and Jordan, in particular—absorb the displaced population, while the United States would “own” the seaside territory. Arabs and even America's allies denounced the plan, which has been condemned as ‘ethnic cleansing' by global human rights groups.
In Israel itself, tens of thousands of people across Israel have been staging protests against Netanyahu since last week. Protesters and his other critics have accused him of undermining democracy and restarting the war simply to divert attention from the political and legal problems he has been facing, thus jeopardising the fate of the remaining hostages.
The immediate trigger for protests was Netanyahu's sacking of Ronen Bar, the head of Israel's internal security agency, Shin Bet (though this was later put on hold by a court while judges examined the evidence). The resumption of military action in Gaza fuelled their anger further. Netanyahu has accused Bar of failing to prevent the Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, which resulted in 1,200 Israeli deaths and the abduction of more than 250 other Israelis, which triggered the ongoing Israel-Hamas war.
It was the worst attack in Israel's history, sparking outrage not only in the country but across the globe. Ironically though, Netanyahu himself has not taken any responsibility for the horrific terrorist attack, which happened under his watch.
Netanyahu's Troubles
No Israeli prime minister before Netanyahu has ever fired the head of a security agency during a war. His critics argue that the real reason behind the move appears to be investigations launched by Shin Bet against officials close to Netanyahu.
The agency is probing a spokesperson who allegedly leaked to a German news outlet classified documents that appeared to give the prime minister political cover in ceasefire negotiations. Shin Bet is also looking into claims that Qatar reportedly hired close Netanyahu aides to launch a public relations campaign in Israel. Qatar had sent millions of dollars in cash to Gaza, with Netanyahu's approval. The assumption is that this money reached Hamas.
Netanyahu's critics also point to his attempts to sack his Attorney General, Gali Baharav-Miara, who had said that the Israeli PM needed to clarify the legal basis for his decision to remove Bar, adding that “the role of the Shin Bet is not to serve the personal trust of the prime minister”.
On Sunday, the Israeli cabinet voted in favour of a no-confidence motion against Gali Baharav-Miara, in a move designed to hasten her dismissal. In response, she said the government was seeking to place itself above the law and operate without checks and balances.
Protesters are also concerned about judicial reforms that would introduce more political appointees to committees selecting judges. Netanyahu is already undergoing a corruption trial, for which he has been appearing in court. He faces charges related to fraud, bribery and breach of trust, though he alleges that they are politically motivated and fabricated by his opponents.
Trump's Playbook
Taking a leaf out of Trump's book, a defiant Netanyahu says there has been a conspiracy against him by the ‘leftist deep state', just as Trump was being targeted in the United States. “In America and in Israel, when a strong rightwing leader wins an election, the leftist deep state weaponises the justice system to thwart the people's will. They won't win in either place!” he said in a post on X last week.
But opinion polls show Netanyahu is now deeply unpopular in his country and might lose an election if it takes place now. He thus relies even more on far-right partners for his government to survive now. This could be one reason for his trying to appease them regarding the Gaza policy.
Left In The Lurch
Israel's brutal military response to the October 7 attacks by Hamas has resulted in devastating consequences not only for the militant group but also for Gaza's general population. Most of the leaders of Hamas and its ally, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, have been killed.
Israel's other enemies, like Yemen-based Houthis and its sponsor Iran, are now much weakened. The regime change in Syria has also given a strategic advantage to the country. So, the parties supporting Hamas are either gone or are hardly able to threaten Israel anymore.
With Trump in the White House, Netanyahu could not find a better ally in America. In contrast to his desperate attempts for a ceasefire in Ukraine, Trump doesn't seem keen to put an end to fighting in Gaza. Although he did pressure Netanyahu to agree on a ceasefire deal with Hamas in January, his support for Israel's new offensive suggests that he may still be hoping for his Gaza Riviera plan to succeed, regardless of what this could mean for Gaza's civilians. Of course, Hamas must release all the remaining hostages, but should it not be done by negotiations as agreed in January? As families of the hostages fear, the new Israeli military campaign could put their lives in danger.
Unfortunately, Palestinians in Gaza don't have powerful backers, such as the European governments that have vowed to help another embattled population, the Ukrainians, even if the US abandons them. Even Arab governments, including Saudi Arabia, the host of the Ukraine ceasefire talks and the most powerful Arab nation, have not provided such support to the Palestinians.
(Naresh Kaushik is a former editor at the Associated Press and BBC News and is based in London)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
