Opinion | Is Realignment Of Parties Possible Post The Big Poll Verdict?

Ahead of the fifth phase of polling in the ongoing Lok Sabha election, regional parties like the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu - both members of the INDIA bloc - seem to have initiated an assessment of their positioning vis-a-vis the political landscape that will take shape post-June 4, once election results are out.

Notably, it was TMC supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who initiated this discourse with her remarks at a public rally earlier this week in Hooghly, where she stated that the TMC would support the INDIA bloc from outside to form a government at the Centre. While she didn't explicitly mention supporting or collaborating with Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), there's a possibility she may extend an olive branch to the new regime in the "interest of the state". In her speech, Mamata clarified that the TMC would not support the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M) or the Congress in West Bengal.

Fallout Of Mamata's Statements

Mamata's remarks sparked a political storm, with Bengal Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Choudhary alleging that the TMC could reverse course and support the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) if they secured higher numbers in the Lok Sabha election. Adhir expressed distrust in Mamata, citing her break from the alliance in the state.

After Mamata withdrew from the INDIA alliance in Bengal and opted to contest alone, the Congress and the CPI (M) formed a seat-sharing agreement in the state, challenging both the TMC and the BJP. He attributed Mamata's previous reluctance to join the INDIA alliance to PM Modi's alleged intimidation, including threats against her nephew Abhishek Banerjee, akin to those allegedly made against Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) chief Hemant Soren and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) convenor Arvind Kejriwal.

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CPI(M) General Secretary Sitaram Yechury also expressed confusion over Mamata's statements. However, Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge believes the TMC remains integral to the INDIA bloc and downplayed her 'outside support' remark. Mamata, on the other hand, criticised the R.K. Mission monks and ISKCON for supporting the BJP. Contrasting her government with the Left, she highlighted her efforts in restoring Vivekananda's ancestral home and the land provided to ISKCON.

Disquiet In South

For the Congress-led INDIA bloc, such concerns extend to the southern state of Tamil Nadu as well. The DMK leadership, led by Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin, convened at the party headquarters last week to contemplate the party's options after the Lok Sabha results.

Two main concerns trouble the DMK: firstly, indications that the Congress may not be in a position to form a government at the Centre following disappointing reports about its performance across India. This has prompted the DMK to consider a post-poll realignment. The party recognises the need for a strong working relationship with the NDA as well as with PM Modi. Although the party is wary of the BJP's ascent in Tamil Nadu under K. Annamalai, it believes its sizable contingent of 40 MPs - 39 from Tamil Nadu and one from Puducherry - cannot remain idle in Parliament, as has been the case since 2019.

DMK Misses Out On National Role

Beyond the BJP's ascent in the state, what has dismayed the DMK is its absence from any significant national role within the INDIA alliance in Northern India. The party discovered that Stalin was not even extended an invitation to any INDIA event due to his son and state minister Udhayanidhi Stalin's remarks against Sanatana Dharma, often equated with Hinduism in the rest of India. Apparently, these comments became a contentious issue even for parties like the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Samajwadi Party (SP) in the Hindi belt. Such was the stigma that the DMK wasn't invited to prominent INDIA meetings in Mumbai and Patna.

In response to Stalin's concern about the lack of a role for the DMK in the North, a senior All India Congress Committee (AICC) functionary dismissed it as an "excuse". "Stalinji seems to be searching for an excuse like Mamata to exit the INDIA alliance. Just as the TMC is discussing outside support for the INDIA government now, potentially aligning with the Modi-led NDA if PM Modi requires support, the DMK is also seeking a pretext to leave the INDIA alliance," said a Tamil Nadu Congress leader.

Meanwhile, the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee (TNCC) chief, K. Selvaperunthagai, also an MLA, has begun advocating for strengthening the Congress independently of the Dravidian parties' support. He appears to be drawing inspiration from state BJP leader K. Annamalai's strategies. Congress sources suggest that Selvaperunthangai might be taking cues from Stalin as well. Regardless of the Lok Sabha election results in Tamil Nadu, Stalin is reportedly pushing for advancing state assembly elections to thwart any momentum gained by Annamalai in the Lok Sabha polls. Stalin is eager to facilitate his son Udhayanidhi's ascension to CM's position at the earliest. Additionally, regardless of the Lok Sabha poll outcome, Kanimozhi has asserted that she will be the parliamentary party leader, not the octogenarian T.R. Balu.

Identity Questions

Congress circles are not taken aback by the shift in thinking among regional parties to back the NDA. Some parties may do so to uphold their individual identity. Modi claimed after three phases of elections that the Congress and its allies have acknowledged their defeat. Without directly naming anyone, he referred to a certain leader of the INDIA bloc (Sharad Pawar) who suggested that after the elections, all small political parties should merge with the Congress to be recognised as valid opposition.

"After the trends of the last three phases of voting, I know why he [Pawar] has said so because he has realised that the Congress and its allies will not get as many seats to become a valid opposition. If they merge the entire INDIA bloc group then only, they can get recognition as a valid opposition," he had said at an election rally in Jharkhand.

Ultimately, in the battle of numbers, one never knows who is going to be on whose side.  

(Lakshmi Iyer is a journalist who has been covering politics for four decades in Delhi & Mumbai. She is on X @liyer)

Disclaimer: These are the personal views of the author