German elections this week have once again underlined that Europe's political landscape is undergoing a fundamental transformation. Friedrich Merz's conservatives won, but the star of the election night was Alternative for Germany, or AfD, which managed to double its support in just four years to 20.8%, emerging as the second biggest political force in the nation's parliament. The normalisation of AfD is the new reality in a country where it is gaining ground by the day. From the east, where it had been traditionally dominant, today its influence is also visible in the west. For a party that has been designated as right-wing extremist by the domestic intelligence in three states, these are remarkable gains.
End of The Brandmauer?
Yet, German political consensus since the end of the Second World War would ensure that AfD is kept out of power. This is because of a “firewall", or Brandmauer, accepted by Germany's mainstream political parties that they would not enter into a coalition with any extremist party. But the question that is now being asked is how long can the inevitable be postponed.
Germans came out in large numbers to vote in these elections perhaps recognising that their nation stands at an inflexion point. US President Donald Trump's policies towards Ukraine and Europe have left the Germans with fewer options, and with Vice-President JD Vance and Elon Musk openly backing the AfD in the run-up to the vote, there seems to be a new sense of urgency in Germany about the future. The transatlantic relations seem to be in free fall. Germany's chancellor-in-waiting, Friedrich Merz, questioned the future of NATO and demanded that Europe boost its own defences soon after election results were announced.
Germany will have to lead Europe being abandoned by the US, but it has been distracted by domestic issues over the last few months. Now, the new government will have to do heavy-lifting in a heavily divided country as the rise and acceptance of the far right creates new challenges for Europe's most powerful country.
Why The Right Rises
It is clear that economic challenges over the past few decades, particularly since the 2008 financial crisis, have been the main driver of the rise of the far right. Austerity measures, rising unemployment and income inequality have contributed to economic instability, leaving many citizens feeling alienated and dissatisfied with mainstream political parties. Far-right parties have been quick to fill the void by promising to protect national interests, revive local industries and resist globalisation, framing themselves as the champions of the working class and traditional values.
This when seen through the lens of immigration patterns and changing demography has resulted in an increased anxiety about national identity and cultural change. Far-right movements exploit these fears by promoting xenophobic ideologies, framing immigrants as the source of all problems. The inability of traditional political parties to speak to these anxieties of ordinary people has led to a serious disconnect in most European democracies. This sense of disillusionment has fuelled a growing support for anti-establishment movements, which often embrace far-right ideologies. These parties promise to “take back control” from elites and institutions perceived as out of touch with the common people, including the European Union (EU), which is often portrayed as a bureaucratic and distant force undermining national sovereignty.
An Existential Problem
For Germany, the rise of the far right presents almost an existential problem. And it comes at a time when a large part of Europe is expecting it to lead. With Trump breathing down Europe's neck and Russia seemingly gaining an upper hand in deciding the future contours of the European security architecture, Germany will first have to address concerns brewing at home. Merz has been dismissive of the rise of the AfD, saying “The party only exists because there have been problems that haven't been solved. They're happy if these problems get worse and worse. We need to solve the problems... then that party, the AfD, will disappear.”
This is easier said than done. For the last several years, it had been a belief in Germany that AfD's emergence was a mere flash in the pan. Recent elections have shown how wrong that assessment was. If the mainstream parties of Germany do not learn even now, AfD's leader, Alice Weidel, already has her eye set on the next election. Soon after the results came out, she made it clear that Merz's attempt to forge a coalition would ultimately end in failure and that Germany would have fresh elections without having to wait for another four years. It is now for the rest of the German political class to prove her wrong.
(Harsh V. Pant is Vice President for Studies at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
