It's Advantage Uddhav Thackeray

(Kumar Ketkar is a senior journalist, political commentator, globe trotter and author. He has covered all Indian elections since 1971 and significant international events. He is a frequent participant on TV debates.)

A question that has foxed and flummoxed most political pundits is where is Raj Thackeray in the complex electoral map of Maharashtra today. About three years ago, Raj was everywhere, dominating the streets and media screens. Even when Balasaheb was around, Raj was perceived as the emerging successor of the Shiv Sena legacy. Uddhav, though formally announced as the heir apparent of Balasaheb, was seen as the "wrong choice".

Raj,  despite considerable charisma and capabilities had been wrongly sidelined was the feeling even among many Shiv Sainiks. But in the last six months, that opinion has been undermined,  particularly since the Lok Sabha elections. Uddhav has emerged as a strong commander, a perception bolstered by his decision to end the 25-year alliance with the BJP.

Raj has been eclipsed, though in an attempt to underscore his relevance, he has in fact announced a list of over 150 candidates for the assembly poll. He does not want to give an impression that he has been demoralized by the disastrous performance of his party in the Lok Sabha election. His party contested ten seats and lost its deposit in all of them.

Raj presented this week WAS IT THIS WEEK, in all seriousness, his "blue print" for the development of the state. He has convinced himself that Narendra Modi won because of the so- called Gujarat Development Model. Raj knows that his party cannot win 145 seats to form the government on its own. But he is gambling on the fact that if none of the four big players (BJP, Sena, Congress, NCP) get a majority, his support will be crucial.

Raj, according to reliable  reports, has already decided to have  a "live-in" relationship with the Modi-led BJP. But neither the media nor opinion polls, and not even his most strident supporters believe that Raj will garner enough seats to become a king-maker.

The Byzantine politics in Maharashtra over the last few weeks has left even the principal players totally confused. Many in the BJP and Shiv Sena  privately wonder why their alliance ended, particularly when victory was so clearly in sight. Indeed, if Gopinath Munde was alive, the issue of Chief Ministership could not have become the bone of contention. Both the parties had conceded that his claim to the post was natural and legitimate, since he was the Deputy Chief Minister in the BJP-Sena government during 1995-1999. Therefore, there were no other claimants within the BJP ; Uddhav had not staked his claim from the Shiv Sena.

Despite this rather unchallenged status of Munde, many senior BJP leaders in Maharashtra were aware that Narendra Modi did not have a favorable opinion of this flamboyant leader. There were two reasons for that. 

The first reason:  Munde was related to Pramod Mahajan, who was seen by Modi as a rival. Modi-watchers say that he neither forgets nor forgives old rivals and their families.  Mahajan was in the Vajpayee camp in 2002 and hence had endorsed the Raj Dharma line which reprimanded Modi seriously for the communal riots in Gujarat.

The second reason: Modi was upset with the Shiv Sena because Balasaheb, and later  Uddhav, had supported Sushma Swaraj as the presumptive prime minister of the NDA coalition. Mahajan was the architect of the saffron alliance and Munde was the bridge between the BJP and Sena.

Modi wanted to snap all the connections of the past. The consequence was the break-up of the 25-year old alliance which had survived worse storms. The new-found confidence of Uddhav is because he has realized that if he is seen to be accepting the BJP's humiliating terms and conditions, he will lose all credibility within the Sena.

The  "Gujarati Game" is being discussed in the words of Samna, the Shiv Sena mouthpiece. The Sena campaign has now trained its guns not only against the BJP but also against the Gujarati community.

Raj, who used to be so eloquent against the "bhayyas" and "Biharis" has kept silent on the question of the Gujarati-Marathi divide. This is inevitable because he has backed Modi to the hilt so far. But apparently, the Sena campaign is picking up momentum and the so-called Modi wave is receding. That is bound to hurt Raj and his MNS. Most Thackeray watchers had almost concluded that after Balasaheb's death, the Shiv Sena would split and there would be ab exodus to Raj's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. Even the BJP leadership had begun to woo Raj, quietly but calculatedly.

It is two years now since Balasaheb's death and those conjectures have proved to be grossly incorrect.  Uddhav has managed to retain his hold over the organization. Ironically, it was Raj, who began to lose mass support. His 13 MLAs were not seen as performers in the assembly. The Nashik Corporation, which he had sensationally won four years ago, was seen as totally incompetent, corrupt and even directionless. On the other hand, the Shiv Sena was emerging as an organizationally intact outfit.

The Lok Sabha elections in May proved this  assessment when the Sena won 18 seats.

But instead of seeing the ground reality, the Modi-Shah duo thought that they could bulldoze the Sena. Modi also instructed his state leadership that they must strive for "shat-pratishat" ie cent percent results for the BJP. His desire was to establish an BJP government in the state. But now, many state leaders feel an ego clash could cost them the ultimate prize: a return to power.

Over to Uddhav. 

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