Opinion | J&K Election: 10 Years On, Which Way Will The Wind Blow?

The third and final round of voting for the Jammu & Kashmir elections will be held tomorrow (October 1). This is the first assembly poll in the erstwhile state after 2014.

The last 10 years have seen momentous changes in the political complexion of the region. Soon after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Article 370, which gave a special status to the state, was rescinded. Further, it was divided into two Union Territories – Ladakh and Jammu and Kashmir.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has promised to restore Jammu and Kashmir's statehood in future. And while a few regional players have sought a restoration of the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress has been non-committal on it.

The Lok Sabha Contest

The assembly polls in Jammu & Kashmir this year were preceded by the Lok Sabha election. The BJP contested two seats in the Jammu region and won both. In the remaining three seats in Kashmir, the National Conference (NC) won two and an Independent candidate was elected from one. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) was unable to open its account.

The two key leaders of the NC and the PDP, Omar Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti, lost the elections. Abdullah was defeated by an independent candidate, Engineer Rashid (who contested the elections from jail), while Mufti lost to the NC's Mian Altaf Ahmed Larvi. Both fell behind by over 2 lakh votes.

If the 90 assembly segments are taken into account for the results of the Lok Sabha contest, then the National Conference led in 36 assembly seats and its alliance partner, the Congress, was ahead in seven, bringing their combined strength close to the half-way mark. On the other hand, the BJP led in 29 segments, the PDP in five, and Independents and others in the remaining 13 seats. The NC and the BJP improved their performance compared to the 2014 assembly polls, while the Congress and the PDP faced a sharp decline.

3 Reasons This Election Is So Critical

The current assembly election has evoked tremendous interest both within the country and internationally for multiple reasons. The verdict will reflect the popular mood after the Article 370 move and the subsequent developments in the region. That this is the first election in 10 years also means that there is a whole new generation of voters - those in the age group of 18-28 — that is voting for the first time. The group represents an important segment of the electorate. 

There are three dimensions that assume importance in the current Jammu & Kashmir election. The first is the voter turnout, which many see as a barometer to measure the popular response to the democratic process in the state. The first phase of polling saw over 61% voting, while the second phase saw 57% of electors coming out to vote. In 2014, the assembly polls had attracted a 65% turnout despite a boycott call. Thus, while the initial numbers this year may seem lower, they still represent a strong turnout. It is also important to note that the first two phases of voting were free of violence and saw peaceful polling.

Counting is scheduled for October 8. Media reports indicate that for the younger generation, especially, economic issues like development, employment, price rise, and peace and security are key factors that influenced their decision. The two regional parties, the NC and the PDP, have focused on their demand for the restoration of Article 370 and statehood. 

The Fate Of Old Players

The Jammu region and the Kashmir valley have distinctly different political orientations. In recent times, the BJP has had an upper hand in Jammu, while the Congress, the NC and the PDP have been key players in the Kashmir valley. The final result would be a clear indication of how much support these players have across the region today.

This leads one to the third and last factor due to which the current assembly polls are significant. This election has seen the entry of several new local parties and independent candidates, whose performance will be watched closely. Do national parties and traditional regional players continue to hold sway, or have new players tipped the scales? The answer to this would also be a reflection of the cut and thrust of the overall politics of Jammu and Kashmir.

(Dr. Sandeep Shastri is the National Coordinator of the Lokniti Network)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author