The third and final phase of voting for the 90-member Jammu & Kashmir assembly is today. This phase is crucial for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as 24 of these seats are located in Hindu-dominated Jammu. It is also a test for Engineer Rashid's party in North Kashmir, where 16 seats will determine whether its performance in the 2024 general elections was a fluke.
This is the first assembly election in the state since 2014. While Phase 1 recorded a voter turnout of 61.38%, the second phase saw relatively lower voting of 56.79%.
10 Candidates Per Seat
Leaders from major political parties, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Leader of the Opposition Rahul Gandhi, have addressed rallies in the Union Territory. A total of 415 candidates are contesting for 40 seats, averaging roughly 10.4 candidates per seat-the highest among all phases.
Of these, 16 seats are in the Kashmir Valley, which includes the districts of Baramulla, Bandipora, and Kupwara. As many as 202 candidates are contesting here, averaging 12.6 candidates per seat. Among them, 69 are independents and 49 from smaller parties, together making up more than 50% of the candidate pool.
At 25, Baramulla has the highest number of candidates, while Gurez, an ST-reserved seat, has just five names in the fray.
In Jammu, 24 seats are up for grabs. These lie in the districts of Jammu, Udhampur, Samba, and Kathua. As many as 213 candidates are vying for these assembly segments - an average of 8.9 candidates per seat. Sixty-nine candidates are fighting independently while 65 are from smaller parties; together they make up 60% of the total contestants in the region.
At 17, Jammu North has the highest number of candidates, while Akhnoor, an SC-reserved seat, has the lowest, just three.
The Candidate Pool
The candidate pool includes 18 names from the National Conference (NC), 25 from the Congress, 29 from the BJP, 33 from the People's Democratic Party (PDP), 17 from the Apni Party (JKAP, a splinter group of PDP founded by Altaf Bukhari), 14 from the People's Conference (JKPC), 16 from Engineer Rashid's Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), and 11 from Ghulam Nabi Azad's Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP).
The Congress and the NC are in friendly competition in three seats: Baramulla, Sopore, and Nagrota. Additionally, there are 138 independents and 114 candidates from smaller parties, which together comprise 60% of the pool.
Following the delimitation process, three seats no longer exist: Sangrama in the Kashmir Valley and Raipur Domana and Gandhi Nagar in Jammu. Seven new seats have been created: Jasrota, Ramgarh, Jammu North, Udhampur West, and Bahu in Jammu, along with Trehgam and Wagoora Kreeri in Kashmir.
On a net basis, four seats have been added - three in Jammu and one in North Kashmir.
The 2014 Results
In 2014, out of 36 seats, the National Conference won five, the PDP seven, the BJP 18, the Congress two, and the Others four. A close contest was observed in 15 seats, with victory margins of 10% or less. Notably, the second runner-up received more votes than the victory margin in 19 seats, complicating the results.
In terms of vote share, the Congress recorded 18% votes, the PDP 16%, the NC 17%, the BJP 29%, and Others 20%. Had NC and the Congress contested as an alliance in 2014, they could have won 17 of the 36 seats.
North Kashmir used to be a traditional stronghold of the NC, but the region's loyalty shifted to the PDP after its emergence. The PDP won 10 and seven seats out of 15 in 2002 and 2014, respectively. However, it was the NC that won the Lok Sabha seat in 2019.
In the recent Lok Sabha election Engineer Rashid caused an upset by defeating NC chairman Omar Abdullah in the Baramulla seat by 2,04,000 votes. His party, the AIP, was leading in 14 segments, while Sajjad Lone's People's Conference was leading in one of the 18 assembly segments.
Smaller Parties And Independents Can Queer The Pitch
The People's Conference garnered 1,73,000 votes, the PDP received 27,000, and 13 independents collectively bagged 70,000 votes. This illustrates how independents and smaller parties could not only harm the prospects of the NC and the PDP but also win a few seats from the valley. The Apni Party and Engineer Rashid's AIP pose a threat to the legacy parties. Many former separatists are contesting as independents, potentially acting as vote-splitters.
The NC and the PDP allege that the BJP is behind the rise of these new parties and candidates, claiming they are acting as proxies for it. The Valley also has a higher number of independents and smaller parties compared to Jammu, where the contest is largely between the Congress and the BJP.
North Kashmir's Baramulla and Kupwara districts have a significant number of Pahari-speaking communities, comprising 14% and 12% of their populations, respectively. The BJP hopes to gain ground by fulfilling their long-pending demand for inclusion in the ST list. The party's logic is that these communities are likely to vote against the NC and the PDP, which did not meet their demands, and instead support 'Others'.
BJP, Congress Strategies
The BJP's strategy aims to secure the maximum number of seats from Jammu in Phase 3, hoping that seats in North Kashmir will be split among legacy and new parties, thereby weakening the NC-Congress front's chances of forming a government.
The Congress on the other hand is optimistic that its revival in the 2024 general elections and an improved strike rate in direct contests against the BJP will help it reduce the latter's tally in the Jammu region.
Ahmad Guru To Muzaffar Beig, Key Names In The Fray
Key candidates include Ahmad Guru, the brother of Afzal Guru hanged in 2013 for his role in the 2001 Parliament attack. He is contesting from Sopore as an independent.
People's Conference Chief Sajjad Lone is contesting from two seats, Kupwara and Handwara, and Engineer Rashid's brother Kursheed Ahmad is contesting from Langate.
Two former deputy chief ministers, Tara Chand (Congress) and Muzaffar Beig (Independent) are contesting from Chhamb and Baramulla, respectively.
The third phase of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections is crucial for the leading political parties, with constituencies of many prominent candidates at stake. A fierce contest is on the cards.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author