Electoral necessities almost always outweigh ideological foundations while forging political alliances. Hence, it's no surprise for former Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda's Janata Dal (Secular), which as the name suggests has little ideological affinity to the BJP, to join an alliance with the ruling BJP led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
While the JDS and BJP have been allies in the past - the BS Yediyurappa-led BJP state unit formed a coalition government in Karnataka with Deve Gowda's son HD Kumaraswamy as Chief Minister in 2006 - the entry of the JDS into the NDA now is a very different chapter in the regional party's politics.
This is the first time the JDS will form a pre-poll alliance while it is not in power running a coalition government in Karnataka. It has always wielded the "brute" post-poll bargaining power. Whenever Kumaraswamy had forged an alliance, it was to occupy the Chief Minster's post. In 2019, he fought the Lok Sabha polls as a Congress ally only because the Congress - which had 80 MLAs compared to JDS's 37 - had ceded the Chief Minister's post to him. Similarly, in 2006 he broke his alliance with the BJP as soon as he had to give up Chief Ministership.
Secondly, and more importantly, the JDS is at its lowest ebb. It was battered by the Congress in the assembly polls, ending up with just 19 seats and a 13 per cent vote share, its lowest ever since its formation in 1999. So, this time it's an alliance for the very survival for the regional force. The BJP is in the driver's seat and in it for the long run. There are compelling regional reasons for the national party too for entering this alliance.
It is a known fact that, traditionally, the BJP's Achilles heel in Karnataka has been JDS strongholds and the regional party's core OBC Vokkaliga caste vote base.
For instance, the BJP won 25 of the 28 parliamentary seats in 2019 and lost the seats of Bengaluru Rural (won by the Congress's DK Suresh), Mandya (won by Congress rebel and independent candidate Sumalatha) and Hassan (won by HD Deve Gowda's grandson Prajwal Revanna).
In fact, in 2019, the BJP candidate for the Hassan parliamentary seat was A Manju, who was a JDS rebel and later returned to the party and won the Hassan assembly seat in 2023. The BJP has never won these three seats, despite winning at least 17 of the 28 parliamentary seats in the state consistently since 2004.
These seats, along with five more, define the JDS region of electoral influence. In an assembly poll this translates to around 50 seats. From the BJP's point of view the alliance with the JDS is the first step to a decisive reworking of the Karnataka political arithmetic, both for the parliamentary polls of 2024 and beyond. It needs to take over the JDS vote base, a strongly caste-affiliated voter who is essentially anti-Congress at the grassroots.
The BJP is already considered the bastion of Karnataka's largest voting bloc - the Lingayat sect. The OBC Vokkaliga caste base of the JDS is the second largest vote bloc of Karnataka. While the Lingayats are spread across Karnataka the Vokkaligas are concentrated in the JDS's region of influence. Uniting the two is a recipe for success, but it is easier said than done.
The BJP seems to be looking at the JDS eventually merging with it, like many small splinters of the erstwhile Janata movement have in other states, and that would create a bipolar Congress versus BJP narrative in Karnataka.
One of the reasons the BJP has never won a simple majority in the southern state, despite having swept parliamentary polls, is because of its weakness in the JDS heartland. In an assembly poll a three-way fight has always benefited the Congress on JDS turf.
For instance, in 2023, the BJP went after the JDS vote in Old Mysore and that helped the Congress sweep the region. OBC Deputy Chief Minister and State Congress President DK Shivakumar is from the Vokkaliga caste and dedicated himself hugely towards decimating the JDS in districts like Mandya. His job was made easier by the BJP splitting the JDS vote.
Beyond this straightforward calculation, the presence of a strong third player in the JDS is one of the reasons for Karnataka's notorious "adjustment politics". Under-the-table political arrangements, family ties and business relationships between powerful political families in several constituencies go beyond party lines. While such dealings are a reality of Indian politics, it may be argued that they are far more prevalent in Karnataka.
It's possibly why Karnataka has the richest MLAs in the country and despite the state never voting an incumbent government to power since 1985, there are incumbent candidates who have never lost their seats for decades. They shift parties with impunity.
Dominant sections of the BJP's central leadership have held this as a main reason for the party's inability to win a simple majority in the state despite sweeping parliamentary polls. In fact, in 2023, the BJP made an effort to work around these arrangements, but failed miserably.
This "adjustment politics" is also the reason the Congress's central leadership is careful in Karnataka decisions. For instance, in 2019, when the Congress-JDS alliance was toppled in the state, many, if not most, of the 13 Congress MLAs who resigned and switched to the BJP to support BS Yediyurappa were considered loyalists of present Chief Minister Siddaramiah, who himself shifted to the Congress from the JDS in 2004.
Some of those MLAs are now looking at a return to the Congress and have publicly displayed their proximity to Yediyurappa, who was a master at striking alliances with MLAs cutting across party lines to get the BJP to power.
The BJP central leadership has been keen to end this "adjustment politics" because it limits the party's hold on the government and also confines its growth in the state. Sections of the state leadership haven't yielded yet. Having a strong third player in the JDS is the first hurdle in ending such adjustments. So, the national party will use every weapon in its arsenal to ensure the JDS vote transfers to the BJP in 2024 and the seat sharing arrangement is likely to reflect that.
Further, if the 2024 experiment works out for the BJP - nationally and locally - it will forge ahead in cannibalizing the JDS vote. The JDS is in no position to fight back. There are multiple factions in the Deve Gowda family. HD Kumaraswamy's brother and former minister HD Revanna is considered closer to the Congress.
If the JDS disintegrates after 2024, different factions may head different ways and, in more ways than one, Kumaraswamy's entry into the NDA may well be the start of a long road with the BJP. A road where the BJP runs the show for him and one that could redefine Karnataka's political arithmetic.
For the moment, Deve Gowda, who had claimed to be the secular ally of the Left Democratic Front in Kerala for years, may serve more proof that ideological positions are conveniently forgotten when his party tries to "rise from the ashes like a phoenix"! (Gowda had famously told reporters he would rise like a phoenix when he was unseated as Prime Minster in 1997)
(TM Veeraraghav is the Executive Editor, BQ Prime.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.