The leaked findings of Karnataka's caste survey have sparked political turmoil in the state. While some Congress MLAs and ministers want the report to be rejected, community leaders and seers from Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities have called the survey unscientific, warning of statewide protests. It's worth noting that surveys, unlike censuses, are prone to errors, with many households reporting they were not visited.
Political analysts have questioned the timing of the survey, suggesting that Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's real intent may be to weaken the bargaining power of influential community leaders within the Congress. This comes at a time when pressure is mounting to appoint additional deputy Chief Ministers, such as M.B. Patil, and to pave the way for D.K. Shivakumar to assume the top post.
According to media reports, the caste/community-wise breakup is as follows: Muslims (12.87%), Lingayats (11.09%), Vokkaligas (10.31%), Kurubas (7.31%), Scheduled Castes (18.27%), Scheduled Tribes (7.16%), and Brahmins (2.61%). OBCs account for 70% of the population, SC-STs for 25%, and upper castes 5%. The proposed increase in OBC reservations from 32% to 51%, alongside 10% for EWS and 24% SC-ST reservations, would raise the overall reservation pool to 85%. However, this would require Supreme Court approval.
Lingayats and Vokkaligas, who claim to constitute 35% and 15% of the population respectively, have protested against the report, alleging underrepresentation. Electoral estimates place their combined numbers closer to 30%. Historically, over 40% of Karnataka's MLAs and ministers have come from these two communities.
Lingayats are estimated to have considerable clout in 124 assembly constituencies, while Vokkaligas hold sway in 75. Two-thirds of Lingayat-dominated seats are in Bombay and Hyderabad Karnataka, areas where Congress performed well in 2023. Similarly, 70% of Vokkaliga-dominated seats are in Bengaluru Karnataka and Old Mysuru, traditional JD(S) strongholds where Congress led in 2023.
Accepting the survey findings could alienate Vokkaliga and Lingayat voters, who supported Congress with 49% and 29% of their votes, respectively, in the 2023 assembly elections. This support contributed to Congress's landslide victory, securing 135 out of 234 seats.
The report has exposed divisions within Karnataka's Congress unit. Leaders like G. Parameshwara and M.B. Patil, who have deputy CM ambitions, are reportedly dissatisfied with the High Command's decision to appoint only one Deputy CM. Meanwhile, D.K. Shivakumar's camp is eyeing a rotational CM arrangement as the government approaches its 2.5-year mark in November 2025. There are whispers that Siddaramaiah is deliberately downplaying the numbers of influential castes to consolidate his grip on power and diminish their dominance in Karnataka politics.
Karnataka is now the second state, after Telangana, to conduct and release a caste survey. A nationwide caste census has become a key plank for Rahul Gandhi as he seeks to woo OBC voters who have shifted allegiance to regional parties and the BJP. In the 1971 general elections, Congress enjoyed 46% OBC support, but this dwindled to 19% by 2024, according to CSDS data. Rahul Gandhi has admitted that Congress has failed to maintain the trust of Dalits and backward classes, a confidence they once had under Indira Gandhi's leadership.
In Karnataka, Siddaramaiah and Rahul Gandhi aim to consolidate OBC, minority, Dalit, and Adivasi votes, even at the risk of alienating Vokkaliga and Lingayat communities, which are not traditional Congress supporters. The math is simple: OBCs make up 70% of the population, with 21% being Vokkaligas and Lingayats, 13% Muslims, and 7% Kurubas. Congress risks losing 21% Vokkaliga-Lingayat support while retaining its majority among Muslim and Kuruba voters (20%). The remaining 30%, comprising smaller OBC groups like Naidu, Ediga, and Mogaveera, is split among BJP, Congress, and JD(S). The strategy is electorally risky.
If accepted, the report could have far-reaching implications. Parties that have historically allocated over 40% of their tickets to Vokkaligas and Lingayats may reduce their representation in favour of other OBCs. Lingayats and Vokkaligas, akin to Jats in North India, are intermediate caste groups whose removal from the state OBC list has previously caused societal tensions. These influential groups also hold sway over smaller communities, amplifying their political power.
Rahul Gandhi hopes to pressure the Modi government into conducting a caste census. Should they yield, Congress could claim credit. By promising higher OBC reservations, breaking the 51% ceiling, and championing the slogan "jiski jitni sankhya bhaari, uski utni hissedaari," Rahul Gandhi aims to reclaim OBC support, which is crucial for winning national elections. The BJP, by highlighting PM Modi's OBC roots and increasing OBC representation in power, has successfully courted this demographic. In the 2024 general elections, the INDIA bloc received 25% of lower OBC votes, compared to the NDA's 58%, according to CSDS.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
