There is a camp that believes that the Congress has little chance of improving its 2019 tally. However, others contend that the party may be able to cross the 100 mark. But one thing is certain: the Congress is in no position to form a government at the Centre by itself. This was the Congress that had dominated the political scene in the country for more than 50 years. Even when it ceased to be a formidable player, it ran a coalition government led by Manmohan Singh for 10 years. However, such is the dominance of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) under the dynamic and exceptional leadership of Narendra Modi that the Congress forming a government on its own looks like a dream.
A Glimmer Of Hope
At present, the Congress is truly fighting a near-existential crisis despite having governments in three states and a 19% vote share. To regain its past glory, the Congress needs major surgery, with clear vision and a gladiatorial instinct. Today, it looks like a mirage, but a glimmer of hope cannot be ruled out when one peeps through its manifesto for the 2024 elections. It seems the party has finally attained clarity about the direction in which it is planning to move to regain its new social base. I can see traces of a new Congress.
The decline of the old Congress started after the 1989 election. Three events sealed the party's fate: the campaign around Bofors, the implementation of the Mandal Commission by the V.P. Singh government, and the Ram Mandir movement led by the BJP. The Congress, which had won 404 seats after the tragic assassination of Indira Gandhi, was reduced to its pale shadow in 1989. It won 197 seats with 39.53% of the votes. After the demise of Rajiv Gandhi, the Congress formed the government twice: once in 1991, with P.V. Narasimha Rao as the Prime Minister, and in 2004, when Rao's Finance Minister, Manmohan Singh, led the cabinet for 10 years. Due to the Bofors scam during Rajiv's regime, the urban middle class became disillusioned and started deserting the Congress, shifting towards the BJP.
Past Mistakes
The Congress's inability to take a clear stand on the Mandal Commission report mandating 27% reservation in government jobs not only alienated the upper castes but also Dalits and Other Backward Castes (OBC), particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The decline of the Congress was caused by the rise of OBC and Dalit leadership in these states. Mulayam Singh Yadav, Kanshi Ram, Mayawati, Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar, and Ram Vilas Paswan dominated the next two decades in these two North Indian states. The demolition of Babri Masjid resulted in the alienation of Muslims too.
The Ram Mandir movement created a new Hindu voter base, especially in North India. Under the leadership of L.K. Advani, the BJP accused the Congress of pursuing pseudo-secularism and appeasing Muslims at the expense of Hindus. Due to the rise of aggressive OBC/Dalit leadership, upper caste hegemony was threatened, and in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, powerful upper caste groups found themselves marginalised due to the numerical strength of the former. The BJP was there at the right time to offer its support to the upper castes. The lack of a charismatic leader further weakened the Congress. Sonia Gandhi was a stopgap arrangement, but once the Congress suffered a major defeat in 2014, it appeared very vulnerable.
2019 Was A Wake-Up Call
The 2019 defeat served as a wake-up call for the party. It slowly realised that the BJP had become too dominant, and for the party to reclaim its lost ground, something spectacular had to be done. Rahul's two Bharat Jodo Yatras were the result of this realisation. They energised party workers at the grassroots level and attracted Muslim voters to the Congress as well. The victories in Karnataka and Telangana followed.
However, North India remained the real battleground, where the BJP commanded more than 50% of the vote share in parliamentary elections. Here, the hegemonic upper caste had largely shifted to the BJP. According to a Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey, more than 80% of the upper caste voters, including Brahmins, Thakurs, and Baniyas, voted for the BJP. The BJP had also made inroads among OBCs and Dalits. The Congress realised that it needed to reinvent its social base. It understood that only a politics of social justice could counter the rise of Hindutva.
Focus On Social Justice
The Congress took a calculated risk to focus on voters other than the upper castes, who make up roughly 20% of the population, and instead tailored its politics to the remaining 80%. Taking a cue from Nitish Kumar, Rahul Gandhi began advocating for a caste census. During a rally in Kolar, Karnataka, Rahul vocally demanded that census. Even before that, the party had initiated social engineering within its ranks. It appointed Charan Singh Channi, a Dalit, as the chief minister of Punjab. The party took pride in the fact that before the results of the December assembly elections, three of its chief ministers belonged to backward castes: Ashok Gehlot, Bhupesh Baghel, and Siddaramaiah. Mallikarjun Kharge, a Dalit, became the party president. However, the real game-changer has been the recently released manifesto for the general elections, which focuses on three major promises aimed at social justice:
- The Congress has announced the extension of the 50% limit for reservations for OBCs, SCs, and STs
- It has pledged to extend reservations for these groups to jobs in private institutions
- The party has also promised to conduct a caste census if given the opportunity to form the government
The party has attempted to forge a strong coalition of social justice groups with another marginalised group, the women voters, who have emerged as an important category in recent elections.
- It took a revolutionary step by promising to provide 50% reservation for women in government jobs
- It has also pledged to implement 33% reservation for women in assembly and parliamentary elections
- Under the Nari Nyay initiative, it has vowed to provide Rs 1 lakh annually to women from poor families
Undoubtedly, these are bold steps, but there is still a long way to go. The Congress organisationally remains very weak. Senior leaders are still entrenched in the past, unwilling to cede space to the new generation. These senior leaders have flourished under the shadow of charismatic figures. They are accustomed to leading comfortable lives with immense power and feel disoriented in situations of powerlessness. These armchair leaders struggle to keep pace with Rahul Gandhi, and instead of wholeheartedly supporting him, they often find faults in his leadership.
However, reinventing a party is never easy. The BJP currently holds the pole position, but it took many decades to reach this point, enduring numerous failures and experiments. The Congress manifesto indicates that after ten years of uncertainty and confusion, the party has finally chosen a clear path with a defined vision. But there is still a long journey ahead. The emergence of the New Congress will not happen overnight or in a single election.
(Ashutosh is the author of 'Hindu Rashtra' and co-founder of SatyaHindi.com)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.