Opinion | Lok Sabha Elections: Why A 2004-Like Scenario Is Unlikely

Four of the seven phases of India's general elections have been concluded, covering 380 seats and hundreds of candidates. Voters have sealed the mandates for roughly 70% of the total Lok Sabha seats. Both social and traditional media are abuzz with poll studies and analyses, though a common observation between them all is that the electoral contest, which initially appeared to be a done deal, has proved to be tighter than anticipated, with local factors taking precedence over national issues. 

A few analysts claim the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may not come back to power. Some others predict that the party may not be able to touch 272 seats on its own, though with allies it might manage to cross the halfway mark. The slightly lower voter turnout has added to the anxiety, and supporters of both the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the INDIA bloc are perplexed. 

Pollsters Enjoy The Spotlight

Those conducting exit polls are having a field day as they are quizzed on social media and in TV interviews. However, given that it is unethical to speak about such details with elections still underway, most such pollsters have refrained from giving numbers. In fact, among them, many are those who give different answers in different interviews, adding to the confusion. A season of speculation and a battle of narratives, and amidst this, both the BJP and the Congress are trying to turn the public sentiment in their favour. Union Home Minister Amit Shah has already claimed that the BJP has won 270 seats till Phase 4. 

Elections are a lot about “mahaul”, that is, the public mood. India has many late deciders (25-30%, according to various surveys), and it's these voters who are swayed the most by the poll discourse. 

Why Ground Reports May Be Unreliable

People who believe that the BJP could lose this election often cite the example of 2004, when Atal Bihari Vajpayee, a public favourite, lost the mandate. Almost all exit polls had failed to gauge the public mood back then. If exit polls conducted through scientific techniques can go wrong, ground reports, based on unscientific sampling methods and gathered through ground feedback, can also be misleading. This is because such local reports usually tend to portray elections as ‘pitched battles', with supporters of each camp claiming that victory is theirs. This was seen even in the Madhya Pradesh state elections in 2023, which largely became a one-sided battle in the end. 

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Let's look at some data. In the 1999 general elections, the BJP won 182 seats with a 24% vote share, while the Congress won 114 with 28% votes. Though the gap between the vote shares of the two was just 4 percentage points (pp), the BJP still managed to form a government with the support of NDA allies. 

In the next general elections in 2004, the BJP won 138 seats (-44) with a 22% vote share (-2 pp), while the Congress won 145 (+31) with a 27% vote share (-1 pp). The Congress formed a government with its United Progressive Alliance (UPA) allies, and the BJP was handed a shock defeat despite its ‘India Shining' campaign. 

On Victory Margins

In 1999, the BJP's average lead on the seats it won was around 65,000 in terms of votes and 9 pp in terms of vote share. A victory margin of 10 pp is usually considered a close contest as a swing of only 5 pp is enough to reverse the mandate. The BJP victory in 1999 was thus not huge, which is partly why it lost to the Congress in the next general election. 

In 2019, the BJP's average winning margin for its victory seats was around 2.32 lakh votes and 20 pp in terms of vote share. A victory margin of 20 pp is considered a one-sided contest as a swing of more than 10 pp is needed to tilt the contest. Can this huge margin be reversed in 2024? 

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In the 1984 elections, even though the Congress won 414 seats with an average vote share lead of 22 pp, it lost the subsequent elections in 1989. Notably, what also helped the party in 1984 was the deep sympathy generated after Indira Gandhi's assassination. That waned by the next election, and the Bofors scandal and corruption allegations against the Gandhi family cost it dear. 

So, there comes the question: is the political climate in India today similar to 1984 or 2004, or 2019? Well, the answer depends on which side of the fence you are on.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.