Opinion | Maharashtra: MVA Or Mahayuti? All Depends On Who Wins 4 Zones

With elections due in a month, election fever has gripped the entire Maharashtra. While the MVA has released a list of 158 candidates, Mahayuti has announced candidates for 182 seats.

Maharashtra has six key regions—Vidarbha, Marathwada, Western Maharashtra, North Maharashtra, Mumbai and Thane-Konkan—each of which has its own dynamics. Naturally, the alliance that wins four of these six regions will go on to form the government, and thus, parties are tailoring their strategies zone-wise. While Vidarbha has 62 seats, the Northern zone has 35, Marathwada 46, the Western zone 70, Mumbai 36, and Thane-Konkan 39.

In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, the MVA was leading in Vidarbha, the West, Marathwada and Mumbai and was able to win 30 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats. The ruling Mahayuti was ahead in just the North and Thane-Konkan regions. 

Each Party Has A Specific Strength

The MVA and the Mahayuti each have three players, with specific strengths. The Congress led from the front in Vidarbha, defeating the BJP in one-to-one contests. In Mumbai, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena held sway, and in Western Maharashtra, it was the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) that came out on top. In Marathwada, all three parties from the MVA played their part. On the other hand, from the Mahayuti, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena was ahead in the Thane-Konkan, while the BJP dominated Northern Maharashtra. 

The BJP and the two factions of the Shiv Sena have emerged as the only parties with a pan-state presence in the state and they led in assembly segments in all zones in the general elections. On the other hand, the Congress was not in the lead in any assembly segment in the Thane-Konkan region, as was the case with the Sharad Pawar-led NCP in the Mumbai segment. Similarly, the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP failed to make a mark in Vidarbha, Mumbai, Marathwada and North Maharashtra. 

The two Shiv Sena factions are comparatively stronger in the Mumbai and Thane-Konkan regions, while NCP factions dominate Western and North Maharashtra. In Vidarbha and Mumbai, both the BJP and the Congress are the key players. And while the former leads in the North, the Congress, along with the Uddhav-led Shiv Sena, does so in the Marathwada regions. 

Understanding The Six Regions

In terms of demographics as well, these regions are very different. Marathwada, Vidarbha and Western Maharashtra have high SC populations, while ST groups are high in numbers in North, Vidarbha and in Thane-Konkan. Marathwada, Mumbai, Thane-Konkan and North have a high Muslim population too. In the Lok Sabha elections, the MVA did well in areas with high SC and Muslim populations. 

• Vidarbha includes Nagpur, Amravati, Akola, Gondiya, Bhandara, Yavtamal, Washim, Chandrapur, Gadhchiroli, Wardha and Buldhana districts. Notably, it houses the headquarters of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS),
• Marathwada  includes the Aurangabad division, the tourism capital of the state. A third of the state's Maratha population resides here, across Aurangabad, Osmanabad, Parbhani, Hingoli, Nanded, Beed, Latur and Jalna districts.
• Western Maharashtra, popularly known as the sugar bowl of the state, includes the Pune, Satara, Sangli, Solapur and Kolhapur districts. The sugar belt of Western Maharashtra, unlike Vidarbha and Marathwada, is agriculturally rich. 
• North Maharashtra is home to the Nashik division and includes the Nashik, Dhule, Jalgaon and Nundurbar districts. It borders the state of Gujarat to its north. While Nashik is economically developed, other districts are comparatively backward. 
• Thane-Konkan, lying on the western coast of the state,  is the third most industrialised zone in Maharashtra. It included the Thane, Palghar, Raigad, Sindhudurg and Kalyan districts. 
• The Mumbai region has 36 seats between Mumbai City and Mumbai suburban districts. A 100% urban region, it is the financial capital of the country, housing stock exchanges, headquarters of the biggest banks, and BFSI companies. 

Agricultural and rural distress and farmer suicides are burning issues in Vidarbha, Marathwada and North Maharashtra. The BJP hopes that its Ladli Bahin Yojana will help neutralise the discontent with the government here.

On the other hand, in the highly industrialised, developed regions of Thane, Mumbai and Western Maharashtra, the BJP is hoping that its focus on infrastructure and progress will help it win. The Ladli Bahin Yojana may have less resonance here, but then, the Mumbai-Thane regions also house world's biggest urban slums, and thus, its impact cannot be entirely ruled out. 

The Maratha Stir

Meanwhile, the Maratha agitation has its roots in Marathwada, which has 46 seats. In the general elections, the movement's leader, M.M. Jarange Patil, had called upon the people here to vote against the BJP-led government. He is also likely to field candidates from the Maratha community, hoping to become a kingmaker. This could divide the opposition vote and damage the MVA's prospects, at least in Marathwada. Amidst this, the BJP hopes to benefit from a counter-consolidation of OBCs who oppose the inclusion of Marathas in the OBC list. The state's ST bloc is also reeling under internal divisions as the Dhangar community, a traditional supporter of the BJP, has been demanding inclusion in the ST list. 

Navigating these social equations and compulsions will be a big challenge for all the competing political parties in the state. The goal, though, is one: winning four out of Maharashtra's six zones.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author