Opinion: The Impact Of NCP's Implosion On 2024

Political volatility has not taken a pause in Maharashtra since the 2019 state election.

In the latest instance on Sunday, NCP (Nationalist Congress Party) leader Ajit Pawar, along with eight NCP MLAs, joined the Eknath Shinde-BJP government.

In the ongoing political slugfest in the NCP, it is the nephew's turn to outsmart his uncle Sharad Pawar, a veteran and astute politician.

In May, Sharad Pawar's resignation announcement from the post of NCP president stunned everyone. He resigned citing age and health problems and said he aimed to prepare a young leader to take up the party mantle as his 'successor'. In reality, it was to prevent Ajit Pawar from joining hands with the BJP and to expose his aspirational motives to the people. Interestingly, in the whole saga, Ajit Pawar was the one who had asked for leadership change at the top in the party.

Even when Senior Pawar took back his resignation on the request of the weeping party workers, Ajit continued to sulk at being sidelined and eventually, resigned from the post of the leader of the opposition in the Assembly.

This is the third time Ajit Pawar has taken oath as the deputy Chief Minister in the last four years. In November 2019, Ajit Pawar gave a setback to newly formed MVA (Maha Vikas Aghadi) alliance, by breaking away a faction of NCP MLAs and helping BJP's Devendra Fadnavis become chief minister again, ending the 12-day President's rule in the state. After Supreme Court ordered for floor test on Shiv Sena's plea, Ajit Pawar - on the advice of Supriya Sule and other party leaders - resigned and returned to the MVA fold, leading to the fall of the Fadnavis government. Ajit Pawar was also the deputy Chief Minister in the previous Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government, which was in power from November 2019 to June 2022.

Last year, Shiv Sena leader Eknath Shinde with his 40 supporters broke away from Uddhav Thackeray's camp and formed the government with the BJP.

The impact of this new political equation shall be felt not only in Maharashtra but in several other states.

Repercussions on state and national politics

In the absence of trusted aides and senior party leaders such as Praful Patel, Chhagan Bhujbal and others, Sharad Pawar is only left with his daughter, NCP working president and MP Supriya Sule to fall back on for sane advice. As of now, Ms Sule has maintained that she has no intentions of fighting with her cousin Ajit Pawar and that she will not mix personal and professional relationships. How long this demarcation remains depends on the Maharashtra assembly speaker Rahul Narwekar, before whom the NCP has moved disqualification plea against Ajit Pawar and eight other leaders who've joined the Shinde-BJP government.

With his boundless political aspirations, the question is how long will Ajit Pawar play second fiddle to Mr Shinde and Mr Fadnavis in the government. For power, Ajit did not hesitate to ditch his uncle and mentor, time and again. Would ED's hanging sword be sharp enough to stop him from making attempts to occupy the top post by other permutations and combinations.

Eknath Shinde's bold victory speech after Ajit Pawar's swearing-in ceremony may be short-lived. His position as Chief Minister is itself shaky after critical judicial scrutiny. His MLAs - many of whom are waiting in anticipation of ministerial berths - stand no chance of being accommodated in the ministry in the given circumstances. How Shinde handles the simmering discontent of his party colleagues is also something to be seen in the near future.

Senior Pawar's stature in the Third Front is completely dented. From being a pivot point for Opposition Unity before 2024 Lok Sabha election, he has been reduced to a sorry figure - who could not keep his own flock together.

At the national level, the split has severely damaged the opposition unity move of 15 parties, which seemed to be taking some shape, under the leadership of Congress's Rahul Gandhi. The unity is already facing challenges from AAP and Trinamool. Now, with the NCP faced with an existential crisis, how far this unity will challenge the present dispensation at the Centre and the State in coming elections, only time will say.

The show of strength held by the opposition parties in Patna, attended by Sharad Pawar and Supriya Sule had also not gone well with Junior Pawar and his supporters. They allege that the NCP hasn't been able to come on its own in Maharashtra and gain pan-India presence because of lack of charismatic leadership unlike in cases of AAP's Arvind Kejriwal and Trinamool's Mamta Banerjee. By accepting Rahul Gandhi as the face of Opposition in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, NCP was fated to play second fiddle in the national and state politics.

The frequent machinations and vacillations by Ajit Pawar have eroded his credibility. It will need a long-term, stable association with an alliance to rebuild his credibility which will help him position himself as the real successor of Sharad Pawar in the years to come.

In a span of a year, the BJP has managed to engineer two splits in the regional parties of Maharashtra--the Nationalist Congress Party and the Shiv Sena. While Mr Shinde succeeded in taking control of the party, it remains to be seen whether Ajit Pawar manages to do the same.

(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author