Opinion | Maharashtra: Why BJP Can't Afford To Falter In Vidarbha

With polling dates announced for November 20, all eyes are on the grand battle in Maharashtra. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), comprising the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), is anticipating a victory after delivering a shocking defeat to the Mahayuti coalition—consisting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP—in the general elections.

In the Lok Sabha elections, the MVA led in 153 assembly segments, while the Mahayuti was ahead in 126, falling short of the simple majority mark of 145. Meanwhile, buoyed by its recent victory in Haryana, the BJP is confident it can turn the tide through its cash transfer scheme for women and a focus on infrastructure development.

Maharashtra is divided into six regions: Vidarbha, North Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra, Marathwada, Thane-Konkan, and Mumbai. Each region has its own socio-political and economic dynamics. Vidarbha has 62 seats, North Maharashtra has 35, Marathwada 46, Western Maharashtra 70, Thane-Konkan 39, and the Mumbai region 36 seats.

A Kingmaker Region

It's Vidarbha with its 62 seats that could be the kingmaker in this election. The contest here is predominantly between the Congress and the BJP. This region is home to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) headquarters and forms the eastern part of the state, encompassing the Amravati (formerly Berar) and Nagpur divisions. According to the 2011 census, Hindus make up 77% of the population, Muslims 8%, and Buddhists 13%. Notably, Vidarbha accounts for 46% of the total Buddhists in Maharashtra.

Economically, Vidarbha is underdeveloped compared to the rest of the state, facing significant poverty and malnutrition. The region's economy is heavily reliant on agriculture, but since 2012, it has been grappling with severe drought conditions. Tragically, Vidarbha is a hotspot for farmer suicides, accounting for 50% of such cases in Maharashtra.

Historically, this region has seen close contests between the BJP and the Congress. In 1999, the Congress won 24 seats while the BJP secured 23. The numbers fluctuated in subsequent elections: in 2004, the BJP won 18 and the Congress 19; in 2009, the Congress took 24 and the BJP 19. In 2014, riding on a strong Lok Sabha performance and the Modi wave, the BJP swept the region, winning 44 seats, while the Congress was reduced to 10. This marked a significant rise for the BJP.

However, in 2019, the BJP's tally fell to 29 seats while the Congress increased its count to 15. This decline was attributed to agricultural distress, farmer suicides, and factionalism between the different camps, leading to a statewide drop from 122 seats in 2014 to 105 in 2019.

Learning From The Lok Sabha Polls

In the 2024 general elections, the tables turned, with the Congress leading in 29 seats compared to the BJP's 15. The MVA led in 42 seats against the Mahayuti's 19, giving the former a significant 23-seat advantage. Of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, the Congress won five and the BJP two, while the MVA secured seven and the Mahayuti three. In terms of vote share, the Congress received 32% votes, the BJP 30%, the MVA 45%, and the Mahayuti 42%. Notably, the Congress won five of the seven direct contest seats against the BJP.

How did the Congress achieve this success? The party capitalised on agricultural distress and farmer discontent in the region. Its promise of guaranteeing minimum support prices (MSP) resonated with farmers suffering from drought and suicides. Farmers in Vidarbha, once BJP supporters, became disillusioned due to low crop prices, high input costs, and below-MSP rates. Additional issues like unemployment and rising prices compounded the BJP's challenges in this struggling region.

The Congress successfully formed a coalition with various social groups, including Dalits, Maratha-Muslim, and Kunbi communities, which backed the party and MVA candidates. Dalits gravitated towards the Congress due to concerns about potential constitutional changes and the end of reservations if the BJP crossed 400 seats.

Anti-incumbency sentiment also played a role, with established politicians facing backlash over non-performance, resulting in defeats by newcomers from the MVA. Additionally, urban strongholds of the BJP saw lower turnout, with even Nitin Gadkari experiencing a reduced victory margin compared to 2019.

A Kingmaker Region

Vidarbha represents 62 out of 288 assembly seats, constituting 22% of the house's strength. Notably, BJP leaders Devendra Fadnavis and Nitin Gadkari hail from Vidarbha, as do MPCC Chief Nana Patole and Leader of the Opposition Vijay Wadettiwar. The NCP and the Shiv Sena have limited influence in the area.

Given that this region is also characterised by significant rural and agricultural distress, there could be heightened anti-incumbency against the Mahayuti coalition. Demographically, some social groups lean towards the Congress, making it essential for the BJP to address farmers' grievances effectively.

However, the BJP is optimistic that initiatives like the Ladki Bahin, a cash transfer programme for women, granting constitutional status to the SC Commission, and raising the OBC creamy layer cap will help mitigate discontent in the region. Historically, the winner of Vidarbha has gone on to secure the state elections, a trend evident over the past five elections.

Home Minister Amit Shah has stressed the importance of winning Vidarbha to maintain power, and the BJP must reverse the trend observed in this year's general elections. The recent victory in Haryana may bolster their confidence to achieve what seemed challenging just weeks ago.

(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar, he was a corporate and investment banker.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author