Opinion: Mamata's Solo Act In West Bengal Is A Big Setback For INDIA

On March 10, West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo Mamata Banerjee, giving a jolt to the INDIA grouping, severed ties with the Congress and announced that the party will go solo in West Bengal in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. Putting an end to all rumours about seat-sharing, the party announced candidates for all 42 parliamentary seats at its 'Jon Gorjan Sabha' - 'People's Roar Rally' - in Kolkata. 

The TMC has renominated 16 sitting MPs and has fielded 12 women. There are also some political novices and surprises on the list, including former cricketers Yusuf Pathan from Baharampur and Kirti Azad from Bardhaman-Durgapur. Both are 'outsiders'. 

Months Of Friction

The TMC's decision came in the wake of visible friction with the Congress, which extended from confrontations over the slow pace of seat-sharing talks to Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury's persistent personal attacks against Mamata, as well as the grand old party's attitude towards the INDIA bloc that the TMC saw as visible apathy.

Naturally, the Congress leadership, peeved, reacted strongly to the TMC's 'unilateral' announcements. Its leader Jairam Ramesh said on X: "The Indian National Congress has repeatedly declared its desire to have a respectable seat-sharing agreement with the TMC in West Bengal. The Indian National Congress has always maintained that such an agreement has to be finalised through negotiations and not by unilateral announcements. The Indian National Congress has always wanted the INDIA group to fight the BJP together."

Rift Over Seat-Sharing

The TMC and Congress had been wrangling over seats for the last three months. Sources say initially, the TMC offered two seats to the Congress, but the latter wanted at least six to eight. The TMC's contention was that the Congress had won only two seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha election and drew a blank in the state assembly polls in 2021. The Congress, however, was buoyed by its victory in the Sagardighi bypoll in March 2023, and hence was not up for a compromise.

According to reports, Chowdhury's Baharampur constituency was also not included in the two seats offered to the Congress, which further irked the state Congress unit. It convinced the central leadership that going by the Muslim votes the Congress won in the bypoll, the TMC should not ignore its demand for at least six seats.

Outsiders And Local Biggies

The TMC's nomination of former cricketer Yusuf Pathan from Baharampur constituency, which historically has been Chowdhury's stronghold, can be seen as a direct challenge to the Congress. Yet, provided BJP chooses to 'go easy' on the seat, there are strong chances that Chowdhury may win the seat as the Muslim vote is likely to get split between the Congress and the TMC. Moreover, Pathan is not from Bengal, and being a 'bohiragato' (outsider)-the term was coined by the TMC to attack BJP leaders in the previous elections-might work against him. 

The BJP, meanwhile, is trying to field Mohammad Shami from the Basirhat Lok Sabha constituency. Incidentally, Shami plays for Bengal in the Ranji trophy. Though he has yet to give his consent, his candidature can give a much-needed foot in the door to the BJP as Muslim youth may rally around him. The TMC, in any case, has been on the back foot in the Basirhat constituency amid the Sandeskhali saga. It was to salvage the situation that the TMC dropped sitting MP Nusrat Jahan and fielded its former MP Haji Nurul Islam from Basirhat.

Other Names In The Fray

Actor-turned-politician Shatrughan Sinha, who won the Asansol seat byelection in 2022 on a Trinamool ticket, has been re-nominated. Similarly, Kirti Azad, a former cricketer who joined the Trinamool in 2021, has been nominated from the Bardhaman-Durgapur constituency. The seat was won by S.S. Ahluwalia of the BJP in 2019.

Among other notable fresh faces fielded is also Debangshu Bhattacharya, the TMC's spokesperson and youth leader who devised the slogan 'Khela Hobe' slogan in the 2021 assembly polls. Mamata's nephew and heir apparent Abhishek Banerjee has been renominated from Diamond Harbour, and Mahua Moitra, the BJP's bete noire, has been rewarded with a ticket from Krishnanagar despite being expelled from the Lok Sabha last year in a cash-for-query case.

Impact Of Peripheral Parties

The Left front, though a weak player in Bengal today, had been wary of a possible Congress-TMC alliance as it would have been detrimental to its ties with the former in the state. While the Left Front is not averse to an alliance with the TMC at a national level, it is careful not to ruin its limited chances in the old stronghold of West Bengal. Conversely, even the TMC was cautious about an alliance with the Left as there was apprehension that the anti-Mamata vote in the Left bloc would then shift to the BJP.

The Indian Secular Front (ISF), formed in 2021, and the growing popularity of its sole MLA, Naushad Siddiqui, is another worry for the Left, as well as the TMC. Both parties are anxious about Siddiqui's whirlwind tour of the state as it can mar their chances in several constituencies.

"Earlier, Mamata Banerjee wanted to break the Congress-ISF-Left alliance as it would've weaned away Muslim votes of the TMC. In that case, the BJP, with an increased vote percentage, would have managed to win more seats. Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury played spoilsport and TMC decided to go alone," says Diptendra Raychaudhuri, a Kolkata-based political analyst, about the rise of ISF and its impact. "But," he adds, "the impact of Naushad Siddiqui's charisma is a cause of worry for TMC."  

'Khela Hobe' 2.0?

Mamata doesn't like playing second fiddle. Having been safely ensconced in her chief ministerial chair, she is doing her best to be the sole challenger to the BJP nationally. She loves scoring a smart, subtle but hard-hitting win. On the eve of the West Bengal assembly elections, she appeared in front of the public with a cast in her leg. She eventually won-and celebrated the win with the cast nowhere in sight.

'Khela Hobe' 2.0 is certainly on the anvil. The TMC secured 43.3% votes against the BJP's 40.7% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Will Sandeshkhali change things this time?

(Bharti Mishra Nath is a senior journalist)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author