Opinion: Many Signs And Messages Behind BJP's Triple Surprise

In naming three Chief Ministers - Mohan Yadav for Madhya Pradesh, Vishnu Dev Sai for Chhattisgarh and Bhajan Lal Sharma for Rajasthan, the BJP leadership and Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah in particular have been consistent on one significant count, one that has been hallmark of the current regime - secrecy and surprise in decision-making.

The other pattern in these picks is that all three have ordinary roots, strong organisational connect and a relatively low profile. In many ways, they are an inspirational narrative for ordinary party workers - the karyakartas - work harder and the sky is the limit.

PM Modi's own journey has been no less an inspiration to the cadre. By introducing fresh faces, Modi is preparing the party's Gen Next leadership.

It was not for nothing that elections in these states were fought in the name of collective state leadership with PM Modi as the face under the slogan "Modi ki guarantee".

Those who voted the BJP didn't have any chief ministerial candidate to influence their decision. It was for PM Modi to appoint someone, on their behalf, to steer the state, to deliver, to prove and most importantly, work in a way that the BJP can maximise its potential in next year's parliamentary election.

In the 2019 general election, the BJP won 62 out of 65 parliamentary seats in these states. This time around, it would like a perfect score.

A closer look at the caste profiles of the designated Chief Ministers, Deputy Chief Ministers and Speakers signals a larger message to targeted social constituents beyond the boundaries of the three states.

The remarkable victories for the BJP have already robbed Rahul Gandhi's opposition I.N.D.I.A grouping of its biggest poll plank, the caste census. Now the choice of new chief ministers is designed to make more dents in the perceived social support base of rival political groupings. As it is, the opposition alliance grouping is under massive stress.

Before analysing these decisions and how they impact the BJP's prospects, it is worth observing how the current dispensation in the BJP works towards them.

First, Modi's mission is to create a new state leadership structure, to infuse fresh energy and carry the party for at least the next decade. He has done so with Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh, Pushkar Singh Dhami in Uttarakhand, Devendra Fadnavis in Maharashtra, Himanta Biswa Sarma in Assam, Pramod Sawant in Goa and now in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh.

Second, right from the time some union ministers and MPs were asked to fight assembly elections, with or without their consent, the message was clear. The party is supreme.

When Modi became Prime Minister in 2014, he enforced a decisive shift in the way a ruling party works. In regimes prior, once a party came to power, the entire focus was on the government and there was little attention on organisation and organisational structure.

With Amit Shah taking over as BJP president in 2014 (till the 2019 polls), much changed. The organisation gained a new aura and a new command and control. It continues to work that way.

Third, it is becoming apparent to the party rank and file that lobbying and pressuring the Modi-Shah dispensation is sure to be counterproductive.

Fourth, anyone rooted to ground and diligent can be picked up for top posts.

Fifth, a leader has to be in perfect sync with the Sarkar and Sangathan, (government and organisation) to make a mark.

The New Chief Minister Picks

Madhya Pradesh

Mohan Yadav's rise to Chief Minister was stunning even for newly-elected BJP MLAs, their supporters and ordinary party workers. He was chosen over four-time Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, union ministers Narendra Singh Tomar and Prahlad Patel, national general secretary Kailash Vijayvargia and a few more heavyweights. He was, like his compatriots, completely unaware of what was in store for him. In the group photo of newly elected legislators with central leaders, Yadav was seated in a corner of the third row. So overwhelmed he was that he could barely find words when he came to the podium, or before journalists.

A Yadav in charge of one of the biggest states of the country is a neon sign to the Yadav community, particularly in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In UP, the Yadav community is strongly aligned to Akhilesh Yadav. The Samajwadi party's politics is primarily based on its Muslim-Yadav support base. The same for Lalu Yadav's RJD in Bihar. It's also true that sections of Yadavs vote for Modi in parliamentary elections but that is the only caste among Hindus that have stayed away from the BJP in UP and Bihar.

Mohan Yadav's elevation can potentially initiate a churning in this community's thought process, impel them to look away from the Mulayam Singh Yadav and Lalu dynasty.

The naming of Narendra Singh Tomar, a Rajput, as Speaker and two Deputy Chief Ministers - Jagdish Devda, a Dalit and Rajendra Shukla, a Brahmin - reflects intricate caste and community balancing.

Chhattisgarh

By making tribal leader Vishnu Dev Sai the Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh, Modi has reaffirmed the trust tribal community placed in him in these elections. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP won 17 of 29 Scheduled Tribes seats, and in Madhya Pradesh, the party won 27 of 47 Schedule Tribe seats. In Rajasthan too, the community leaned more towards the BJP.

PM Modi has been actively working on his tribal outreach since he came to power, and more vigorously in the last few years. The selection of Droupadi Murmu, a self-made tribal leader who came up the ladder through grit, passion and hard work as the presidential candidate of the ruling NDA, and her subsequent election with a record margin was a big message to the tribal community in particular and the society at large.

At the height of the campaign, Modi flew to iconic tribal leader Birsa Munda's birthplace Khunti in Jharkhand and launched a mega tribal outreach program - the Rs 24,000 crore mission aimed at benefiting 2.8 million people from particularly vulnerable tribal groups (PVTGs) across 220 districts.

According to the 2011 census, tribal communities form 8.6% of the country's population and 47 of 543 Lok Sabha seats are reserved for them. Tribal dominated Jharkhand will vote immediately after the national election in 2024.

For social balancing, Arun Sao from the OBC (Other Backward Classes) community and Vijay Sharma from the upper caste are Deputy Chief Ministers and Raman Singh, who had been Chief Minister for 10 years, will be Speaker.

Rajasthan

By choosing Bhajan Lal Sharma, a first time MLA with a strong organisational connect, as Chief Minister, PM Modi has signalled that when it comes to the top slot, there is no bar. Sharma is a Brahmin; his ascension sends a strong signal to the upper castes not just in Rajasthan but in other parts of the country as well. The Brahmins and other upper castes have long shifted their loyalty to the BJP.

Remember, the Modi government had earlier given 10 per cent reservation to economically weaker sections in upper castes.

Again, for balance, Diya Kumari, a Rajput and Prem Chand Bairwa, a Dalit, have been named deputies.

Modi's idea is to consolidate the party's existing social support base and breach new boundaries. His picks need to deliver.

(Sanjay Singh is a senior journalist based in Delhi)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.