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Swapan Dasgupta is a Delhi-based political commentator with avowedly right-wing inclinations)
Narendra Modi will address an election meeting in Amethi in support of the BJP candidate
Smriti Irani in the late afternoon of May 5. Judging by the Gujarat Chief Minister's record in Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is experiencing a surge in support, the meeting is certain to be well attended. If nothing, the voters of Amethi who have been used to tepid election campaigns thanks to the dominance of the Gandhi family in this belt will flock to Modi's meeting out of sheer curiosity.
To any outside observer, the fact that Modi gave
Rahul Gandhi a few moments of nervous tension is about the only significance of the Amethi rally. However, there are some points that warrant explanations. If the purpose of the Amethi meeting is purely ritualistic, why is the BJP general secretary in charge of UP rushing from interview to interview telling the world that his party is fighting Amethi to win? After all, the ultra-practical man that he is, Amit Shah is not prone to making hyperbolic assertions?
That everyone has taken the BJP's last-minute assault on Amethi very seriously owes a lot to Shah. Over the years, this associate of Modi from Gujarat has acquired a formidable reputation, only a part of which is appetising. To the liberal detractors of Modi, he is the Gujarat Chief Minister's Luca Brassi. Although Shah often takes a perverse pleasure in pandering to the demonology, he is much more than a hatchet man. If there is one individual who has re-introduced a sense of purpose back into a smug and horribly fractious BJP organisation in UP, it is Shah. Through intelligent social alliances and nurturing of local leaders, he has made the BJP in UP a fighting unit. If, on May 16, the BJP is in the throes of boisterous celebrations, much of the credit will go to Shah.
The full details of how Shah, a man with a wicked sense of humour, restored UP to the BJP has to wait for another day. For the moment, however, what is relevant is that Shah's insistence that the BJP is poised to storm Amethi has acquired credibility. All over UP there is a buzz: 'something is happening in Amethi.'
That there are conditions to permit a robust electoral challenge to Rahul Gandhi is undeniable. Apart from the main roads which are in good nick, there is nothing to mark Amethi out as a VIP constituency. There is an endemic power problem, the familiar lack of employment opportunities and widespread charges that government largesse has been creamed off by a clutch of favoured courtiers. But does that mean the constituency is seriously considering cutting its umbilical cord with the Gandhis?
Lacking local knowledge I would reserve judgment. However, there is no doubt that the Amethi buzz has served the BJP well. First, it has illustrated that there is indeed a Modi effect which hasn't left Amethi untouched. Secondly, it has driven home the point that the Congress is tottering in this election, with safe seats becoming unsafe. Third, it has pumped up the BJP workers on the very eve of polling--something that matters in motivating voters to turn up and actually vote.
However, all these potential benefits are inconsequential compared to the biggest side-effect of the Amethi buzz. In suggesting that Rahul had better take care of his home turf, the implicit message is that Priyanka Vadra's energetic, high-profile campaign has created absolutely no ripples in Amethi, even if it has cheered a dispirited Congress Establishment. The message is clear: if Priyanka can't defend her family's pocket borough, how is she going to fight Modi nationally?
I won't even hazard a guess of the final result in Amethi. But the chess game over the constituency has been fascinating. This is old-fashioned politics at its very best. Thank you, Amit Shah.
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