Opinion: Modi Roadshows In Bengaluru And BJP's Karnataka Hope

This Saturday, apart from the usual weekend high jinks, Bengaluru's streets will be livelier. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will take out two roadshows in the Karnataka capital. The back-to-back roadshows come at the tail end of an intense campaign for next week's election. Less than a week before voting day, parties are making every possible attempt to win over voters.

The Prime Minister's roadshows have the potential to swing some crucial seats towards the BJP. In a closely fought election like this one, every seat counts.

The Bengaluru Urban district is a major electoral block with 28 assembly seats. In 2018, the Congress won 15 seats in the district, the BJP 11, and the JDS two. A strong performance in Bengaluru is critical to the BJP for a shot at returning to power. The BJP has a weaker presence in the Old Mysore belt. In Coastal Karnataka and Kodagu, where the BJP has been traditionally strong, the party swept the elections in 2018, winning 18 out of the 21 seats. Not only is there little scope to improve on this, but it will also be tough to replicate the strong wave seen five years ago in favour of the BJP in the region. Bengaluru is one region where the BJP has a chance to pick up a few more seats.

There are certain realities that make Bengaluru a promising option for the BJP. All 28 constituencies are urban areas. Across India, and especially in Karnataka, the BJP's popularity tends to be stronger in urban areas compared to rural regions. The city has a sizable upper-caste and middle-class population, both traditionally inclined towards the BJP. Purely by voter profile, Bengaluru city is a big opportunity for the BJP.

In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the three Lok Sabha constituencies in the city, Bengaluru South, Bengaluru Central and Bengaluru North, voted BJP. Importantly, the seats were won with very comfortable margins. In the lead-up to both 2014 and 2019, the Prime Minister campaigned extensively in Bengaluru. This was a big boost for the party. If the 2019 Lok Sabha results from Bengaluru are anything to go by, Modi's roadshow has the potential to swing votes in favour of the BJP.

The results from Bengaluru Urban in 2018 offer important insights. Most of the BJP's 11 seats were won with relatively comfortable margins. The wins at seven of the Congress's 15 seats and one JDS seat were relatively close. In these constituencies, a shift of a few thousand votes could reverse the election results.

Modi's upcoming roadshow in Bengaluru has the potential to win the BJP an additional 7 to 10 seats. Three factors will be crucial in determining the success of the Prime Minister's campaign in the city. First, can he translate his widespread popular support in the city into votes for the BJP in a state election? In national elections, his presence has clearly made a difference. The Karnataka voter tends to give more importance to local and state level factors in a state election. Modi's ability to reverse these trends will be critical to the BJP's success.

Second, the turnout of the urban middle class voters is relatively low. The Prime Minister's roadshow will need to inspire a sizable chunk of these voters to come out and go to polling stations on May 10. A high turnout in Bengaluru city is crucial for the BJP.

Third, Bengaluru has a large non-Kannada speaking population. Modi's outreach will need to penetrate this cosmopolitan chunk. More specifically, he will need to reach out to the urban voters by addressing some of their key concerns. Bengaluru's poor infrastructure and traffic jams have tested its residents to the max. Last year's flooding aggravated these problems. Saturday's roadshow will need to address some of these issues.

Assembly elections in Karnataka are won and lost on small margins. In 2004, 2008 and 2018, when the BJP emerged as the single largest party, it had a vote share lower than that of the Congress. The BJP has a better strike rate of converting votes into seats. Therefore, even a one or two per cent increase in vote share could push up BJP's seat tally significantly.

The Bengaluru Urban district has the potential to deliver 7 to 10 additional seats for the BJP. In 2018, the Congress outperformed the BJP in the city, picking up 15 of its 28 seats. This is why PM Modi's roadshow on Saturday will be critical. Can the Prime Minister's campaign help the BJP snag a few additional voters? If he does succeed, the extra seats can prove to be vital in the race to form a government.

(Sanjal Shastri is an independent researcher who has recently submitted his PhD thesis at the University of Auckland. He did his masters in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science.)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.