No government's performance is a black-and-white polarity - totally good or totally bad. Eight years have passed of the Modi-BJP government. Spokespersons spew statistics to laud the achievements of the government, and their opponents do likewise to decry it. But statistics are like plasticene, manipulated by the user. The need of the hour is sober reflection.
To be fair, the government has some pluses to boast about. A substantial increase in targeted deliveries of food and subsidies is one. The greater push to infrastructure building is another. A quantum jump in digitization is a third. Certain needed economic reforms, such as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, are a fourth. More toilets, housing loans, gas cylinders, better power supply and a planned effort to provide piped water supply to the poor add a fifth. The shoddily-introduced GST regime seems to have stabilized, and GST collections have touched a new high.
However, the management of the economy faces serious challenges. Economic growth was noticeably falling even before Covid. Post-pandemic (and we can only hope it's over), the economy has shown signs of recovery, but there are very worrisome fault lines ignored by the government's propaganda hype. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) is at a 30-year high of over 15 per cent. Retail price inflation is at an eight-year peak of 7.8 per cent. An LPG cylinder now costs a thousand rupees. Edible oil prices hover around Rs 200. Petrol and diesel have crossed the Rs 100-mark. Excise duty on diesel has been raised by 344 per cent since 2014.
Rampaging unemployment is the other concern. At 7.9 per cent, it is at a 45-year high. The government had promised to create two crore jobs every year, but according to the CMIE, 12.5 crore jobs have been lost in the last eight years. The agricultural sector, which accounts for most of our poor, has an army of the unemployed and under-employed. The government's touted goal of doubling farm incomes by 2022 has not even remotely been fulfilled. The manufacturing sector continues to be sluggish. The masses of the educated young have little hope. Our demographic dividend is becoming an explosive liability.
The net result is that the last eight years have seen the emergence of one the most unequal economies in the world. One per cent of our population owns 23 per cent of the country's wealth; ten per cent owns 77 per cent. The wealth of billionaires has gone up ten times; that of the poorest - already unacceptably low -only by one per cent. In the Global Hunger Index, India's ranking has fallen from 55 in 2014 to 101 in 2021.
The manner in which decisions are imperiously made - and seemingly without adequate consultation and planning - has had catastrophic consequences. Demonetization is illustrative.Estimates show that this one decision slashed the nation's GDP by a whopping two per cent, and 50 lakh jobs were lost overnight. The decision to suddenly impose a nationwide lockdown is another example. The result was untold misery for millions of urban migrants for months. When asked in parliament about this, the government said that it had no knowledge of such migrants.
A creeping authoritarianism is another dangerous trend. Quite clearly, this government does not like criticism or critics. A record 5,128 cases of the draconian UAPA and some 300 sedition cases have been slapped against those - journalists and stand-up comedians included - who have dared to question the government. Media houses have been largely co-opted, and those that do not comply are raided. Institutions like the Enforcement Directorate and the Income Tax Department have been cynically deployed against democratic opponents of the government. The lethal Pegasus surveillance software was mysteriously found to have infested mostly those opposed to the government. NGOs have been on the hitlist. Corporate houses are under pressure to toe the government line. Dissent is routinely equated with being anti-national. Not surprisingly, on the global Freedom of Press Index, India's rank has fallen from 140 in 2014 to 150 in 2021; in the EIU Democracy Index, India has plummeted from a position of 27 in 2014 to 46.
And finally, never before has any government so seriously threatened the social harmony of our nation. While minority appeasement is undesirable, this government has swung to the other extreme, benignly watching over the systematic demonization of our minorities. The BJP's myopic strategy has been to consolidate Hindu votes by promoting the divide between Hindus and Muslims. Both in the 2014 and 2019 parliamentary elections, the BJP won with an absolute majority, but there was not a single Muslim among its winning candidates, certainly a first for any triumphant political party in the history of Indian democracy.
Around 98 per cent of the cattle lynchings since 2010 have occurred after 2014, most of them in BJP-ruled states. The minorities have become the target of lumpen elements of the larger Sangh Parivar who take the law into their own hands with impunity and seem to have the tacit backing of the state. So-called Dharma Sansads are held openly, calling for the genocide of Muslims, and penal action against the perpetrators appears to be both perfunctory and reluctant. The PM may say "sabka saath, sabka vikas, sabka vishvas", but there is little doubt that his government has been collusive and complicit in seriously eroding India's commitment to pluralism, religious harmony and respect for all faiths. The country is rift asunder on Hindu-Muslim issues - mandir, masjid, hijab, azaan, halal - hijacking the real priorities of the people. The government does not realize that endemic social instability and religious strife directly militate against economic progress and prosperity. The consequences of such a state of affairs for a multi-religious country like ours will be borne by future generations.
Balance sheets, if they must be made, can be uncomfortable. The worry is that the government after eight years in power is caught in the cocoon of its own propaganda machine, and in no mood to replace euphoria with introspection.
Pavan K. Varma is author, diplomat and former member of parliament (Rajya Sabha).
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.