(
Pawan Khera is a political analyst with the Congress party.)
The echo of the voters' voice of May 2014 is fainter and receding as proven by the assembly elections in Jharkhand and Jammu and Kashmir.
When you compare the Lok Sabha results to today's, the BJP has little to rejoice. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP had won 60 of the 81 Assembly segments of Jharkhand. It is now struggling to reach the half-way mark. What appeared to be the BJP's Spring Moment of May 2014 has turned into a frozen winter.
The BJP's campaign in Jammu and Kashmir was divisive and confused. From tying up with former separatist Sajjad Lone to talking about a Hindu Chief Minister, from Ram Madhav's unwavering stand on abrogating Article 370 to Hina Bhat's threat of taking to the gun if Article 370 was disturbed, both the good and the bad cops of BJP took their roles rather seriously with contradictory stands on key issues.
The rejection of the BJP including that of Hina Bhat in the Valley shows that the BJP's polarizing influence is not just perceived, it is there. Had the BJP won a single seat in the Valley, Dr Jekyll could have celebrated. The Congress winning seats in all three regions of the state proves again that it is the only truly national party. The party seems to be retaining 13 of its 17 seats. Those who are surprised that the Congress has borne no impact of Afzal Guru's hanging which happened under the UPA regime need to have a better understanding of the people of Kashmir - an understanding not tainted by radical elements on both sides of the border. Despite references to Article 370, conversions, a Hindu Chief Minister, and above all the so called Modi-magic and Amit Shah's management skills, the BJP failed to sweep the Jammu region, which was low-hanging fruit given the Hindu majority.
BJP's Mission 44, apart from being a legit ambition to form a government in the state, also had a sub-text and the sub-text was this was its first bid at seeking the Muslim vote. In the middle of an election in this crucial state, Sadhvi Niranjan made her derogatory remarks about religious minorities and the RSS raised the pitch on conversions. Narendra Modi remained ambivalent on the Sadhvi and silent on conversions. Where was the earnestness for Mission 44? Was the BJP actually confused in its strategy on J&K? Was it deliberately speaking in two voices? Was it just consolidating its votes in the Jammu region?
The process of government formation will throw up many interesting formulations and compromises. It will also pave the way for the future political culture of this crucial border state. The result throws up a unique possibility of non-BJP parties coming together to find a common ground and common agenda for this sensitive state.
If the PDP decides to partner with the BJP to form the government, what would be the stand on contentious issues like Article 370, Self-Rule, dual currency and AFSPA? If the BJP dilutes its stand on any of these issues, apart from being another U-turn, it would also compromise the constituency that voted for the BJP precisely for its stand on these issues. The PDP's manifesto mentions Self- Rule. While the PDP can be ambivalent on the definition of self-rule and its stand on dual currency, the BJP can neither afford to be soft on the PDP's agenda nor on its own.
In Jharkhand, the experiment of the newly reunited Janata Pariwar may not have really taken off and the BJP's 'half a victory' is by default. In terms of numbers, the regional JMM has beaten anti-incumbency and shown that if the party was a part of the larger alliance, the BJP would have found it difficult to form the government.
The Prime Minister campaigned hard in these Assembly elections. Like a gambler who stakes all winnings for further gains, Narendra Modi appears to be using up his political capital in election campaigns rather than in governance. In fact, he is facing a lot of flak for his absence from the Parliament on this account. He should be depressed at neither being able to get crucial Bills passed in the Parliament nor succeeding in getting an absolute majority in Jharkhand or getting a reason to smile in Kashmir.
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